Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 212338 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 738 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A front across the region this evening will move to the east overnight. An area of high pressure will prevail across the area wednesday. Low pressure and another series of fronts will affect the area late Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will return for Friday and persist through the weekend. A cold front will approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is becoming more limited across much of our region (with the exception of Delmarva), so have trimmed the watch back slightly. Meanwhile, the sky remained mostly sunny over our northern counties where dry air has taken hold in the developing west to northwest flow. A clear to partly cloudy sky is expected for tonight after the last of the convection passes off the coast this evening. There may be some patchy fog in areas that received rain today. Minimum temperatures should be in the 50s in our far northern counties and in the 60s elsewhere with a light wind.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A mid level short wave trough is expected to pass over New York State on Wednesday morning, reaching New England in the afternoon. It may bring some clouds to our far northern counties, otherwise it should have little impact on our region. Meanwhile, weak high pressure will likely build into our forecast area from the west. We are anticipating dry weather conditions for Wednesday with highs mostly in the 80s. A west wind around 10 to 15 mph may gust to 20 or 25 mph at times. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Wed night thru Thu night...This looks to be the more active part of the long term. Another low pressure system will emerge from the plains stares and head across the Great Lakes. The low will then move across PA/NY on Wed. The abundance of warm/humid air on the south of the low and the associated fronts will produce another round of showers/tstms beginning across the wen areas late wed night and then spreading across the entire area Thu. Severe weather is a strong possibility with the SPC Day 3 outlook now showing 1/2 the area (Srn) in an outlook. The weather will end from w to e through the night Thu. A briefing package has been already sent to highlight this weather and the HWO will also have mention of it. Temperatures this period mostly near normal. Fri thru Sun...A mostly dry period with high pressure returning to the area. If the system is a bit slower to clear, there may be some lingering showers during the morning across the ern areas. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Fri, rising to above normal by Sun. Sun night thru Tue...Plenty of uncertainty, but the ridge across the area will be waning and a h5 trough will be progressing towards the area. A cold front should cross the area early next week. We stuck with the chc pops that were in there, since it matches well with nearby offices. Temperatures will be above normal with mid/upper 80s for highs Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There are two exceptions. First, isolated showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours could affect KPNE, KTTN, and KMIV. Also, MVFR visibility restrictions around 08 to 12Z will be possible especially for locations that had alot of rain today. The showers and thunderstorms that were affecting KMIV and KACY at mid afternoon should be off the coast by 2200Z. Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated after that time, again with the potential of some MVFR visibility restrictions late tonight and early on Wednesday morning. A west to northwest wind at 5 to 10 knots into this evening should become light and variable for tonight. A west wind at 10 to 15 knots is forecast to develop for Wednesday. The wind may gust to 20 or 25 knots at that time. outlook... Wed night thru thu night...Showers and Tstms may bring lower cigs/vsbys thru the period. Svr tstms possible from the Delaware valley and areas south. Fri thru Sun...VFR conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE... We have adjusted the Small Craft Advisory. We are no longer anticipating wind gusts in excess of 25 knots except near thunderstorms into this evening. However, the southwest to south fetch may cause waves on our ocean waters to build near 5 feet for a time. As a result, we have posted a Small Craft Advisory for seas. It is in effect from our waters off Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick Island until 900 am Wednesday. outlook... wed night thru thu night...Mostly sub-sca conditions. Some low end SCA seas across the srn waters Wed night and Thu. Tstms with local higher winds and seas expected. Fri thru Sun...Mostly sub-sca conditions with fair weather. RIP CURRENTS: An eastern swell with an 8 to 10 second period will continue to create a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents into this evening from Point Pleasant Beach, New Jersey down to Fenwick Island, Delaware. We are expecting to lose the easterly swell tonight and the prevailing swell should be from the south on Wednesday. As a result, we are anticipating a low risk at that time for the New Jersey shore and the Delaware Beaches. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Iovino/Johnson Short Term...Iovino Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Iovino/Johnson/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/O`Hara is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.