Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KPHI 240450
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1250 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016
The low offshore will begin to lift northeast away from our
region tomorrow. In the wake of that low, a ridge will build over
our region Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will slowly shift
east through the remainder of the week. A few small troughs around
the edge of the high will keep unsettled summer like conditions
for through the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered showers continue to circulate around the upper low which
is east of New Jersey. We will continue with high chc/low likely
pops for the overnight hours.
Mid-level debris clouds from early convection around the backside
of the low will limit the extent of fog development overnight.
There is still a potential for some patchy fog, particularly in
areas where it rained.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The upper low makes it way away from the eastern seaboard on
Tuesday. The surface low will also make its final push off to the
east of the area. Some energy rotating through the flow will help to
spark some showers on Tuesday, possibly an isolated thunderstorms as
well. We should start to dry out from southwest to northeast as we
head through the afternoon and into the evening.
Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs into the 70s
through much of the region. Areas along the coast may remain closer
to the upper 60s.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Wednesday and Thursday...Upper level ridge will shift east, with
the ridge axis over our region by Thursday morning. If the
departing upper level low is slower to lift away from the region
than expected, the ridge may flatten a bit as the axis approaches
our region. The few models that are depicting this pattern are
showing showers across the Poconos and NW NJ late Wednesday as the
ridge weakens. For now have kept Wednesday and Wednesday night dry
as even if the ridge weakens slightly, there should be
considerable synoptic scale subsidence over our region. Once the
ridge axis shifts east of our region by late Thursday, we`ll be
close enough to the periphery of the ridge that we could begin to
see primarily diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
initially confined to the NW portions of our region. Of more
certainty is that the region will have a very noticeable warming
trend, with 80s expected across much of the region both days.
Friday through Monday...There continues to be poor model agreement
and run to run consistency through this period, primarily as it
relates to a backdoor cold front in the region Friday or Saturday.
Most model solutions keep this front north of the region, but a
few models and ensemble members bring it as far south as our
region. If this scenario is correct, persistent onshore flow could
result in temperatures well below normal especially Saturday and
Sunday, and generally light and steady precip through much of the
period. For now though, have not included this in the forecast, it
seems an unlikely pattern for late May that a cold front would be
able to push this far south under an upper level ridge. Even with
models and ensemble members that show the ridge lingering over the
region, should still see chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the weekend as the region could be on the periphery of the
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Mainly VFR thru 06Z except locally MVFR in showers. Patchy fog
could develop before daybreak Tuesday, especially at terminals
where it rained. However, BKN to OVC mid-level clouds will limit
the extent of fog formation though. Therefore, kept restrictions
mainly in MVFR between 06z-12z. IFR vsby restrictions possible in
some of the more rural spots that received a wetting rainfall
Tuesday...mainly VFR conditions are expected across the region. Any
fog should clear between 12-14z. Another round of scattered showers
is possible and even a few thunderstorms may occur. All activity
will decrease as we head towards the late afternoon/evening. Winds
will turn to the west for Tuesday.
Wednesday...VFR conditions expected.
Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent MVFR conditions with
showers and thunderstorms possible each day.
Small Craft flag for hazardous seas was dropped. Seas at 44009
continue to slowly diminish. Scattered showers will continue
overnight. More concentrated activity across the northern NJ
Coastal waters. Seas on the ocean 3-4 ft overnight.
Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA
There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Delaware Beaches
through this evening.