Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280150 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 950 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY RETURN THURSDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND REACHES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REACH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BE 5 MPH OR LESS DURING THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 40S WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL MOVE FURTHER OFFSHORE ON TUE. THE RETURN SWLY FLOW COUPLED WITH A WARM FRONT ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES NR THE GRTLKS WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY FOR LATE OCT. TEMPS WILL PUSH WELL INTO THE 70S, WHICH WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NRML. AGAIN, DRY WX IS IN STORE, WITH SW WIND AROUND 10 MPH. NOTHING MORE THAN CI IS EXPECTED AGAIN. WITH DECENT SWLY FLOW, GUID TEMPS SEEM A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE, SO BUMPED THEM UP A FEW DEGREES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE MUCH SHORTER DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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GFS AND WRF INITIALIZATION OVERALL WERE PRETTY GOOD WITH SOME 1C COLD ERRORS IN TEMPS UPSTREAM. OVERALL VERY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH CFP WEDNESDAY. THE DP/DT ON IT CONTINUES TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY SLOWER. OVER THE PAST WEEKEND THE RUBBER BAND STRETCHED TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION, NOW WE ARE SLOWLY WORKING OUR WAY BACK TOWARD A WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CENTERED EVENT. WE CAN NOT SAY THE SAME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY LITTLE RUN TO RUN, MODEL TO MODEL, MODEL TO OWN ENSEMBLE MEMBER AGREEMENT OR CONTINUITY. THE TELECONNECTIVE PATTERN IS STILL NOT SHOWING A VIOLENT SWITCH, BUT WE ARE GETTING TO THE TIME OF THE YEAR WHERE THE TROFFIER SOLUTIONS START VERIFYING MORE OFTEN. THE GIVEN IS THAT WE WILL BE WINDY AND COLDER. ALSO ITS A NORTHERN STREAM PHASER. (SRN STREAM TOO LATE FOR US?). HOW WE GET THERE IN MORE WAYS THAN ONE IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE TWO PHASING NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES ARE STILL NORTH OF ALASKA. ECMWF/GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD ON THE CONTINENT NEAR THEM. IN GENERAL, OTHER THAN THE UKMET, ALL OF THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRENDED SHARPER WITH THEIR 12Z RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS MORE CONSISTENCY THE LAST COUPLE OF SOUNDING RUNS, BUT THAT BAR IS SET PRETTY LOW. WE HAVE TRENDED THE LONG RANGE TOWARD THIS SOLUTION, WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THIS IS FAR FROM BEING ETCHED IN STONE. THE CONVECTIVE PUSH WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS DESTINED TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF OUR CWA. PARTIALLY BECAUSE OF SLOWER TIMING AND WITH THAT A SLIGHTLY SHARPER TROF. STILL BANKING ON CLOUDS AND OR WINDS TO KEEP MIN TEMPS TOWARD THE HIGH END OF STAT GUIDANCE. ON WEDNESDAY TRIED TO CAPTURE THE SLOWING TREND OF THE SHOWERS AS BEST WE COULD. THE EMPHASIS FOR SHOWERS IS NOW DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE FALL LINE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA HAS MORE OF A CHANCE INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN REALITY, THE PCPN WITH THE FRONT IS GETTING MORE OF AN ANAFRONT LOOK TO IT (RAIN VS SHOWERS) AS WE WAIT FOR A SOUTHERN CONUS IMPULSE TO GET INVOLVED AND THE FRONT ITSELF GETS TO THE COAST RELATIVELY EARLY. POPS ARE STILL HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE POSITIONING OF THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET AND ALSO BECAUSE OF DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST. THE GFS SHORT WAVES STILL LACK CONTINUITY, REASON WE WENT WITH LOWER PCPN AMOUNTS. GIVEN THERE ARE STILL TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT, MAX TEMPS ARE LOWER CONFIDENT. WE MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTHWEST WITH MORNING PCPN AND CONVERSELY TOO LOW SOUTHEAST WHERE WARMING WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE PCPN ARRIVES. WE EXTENDED POPS SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BASED ON SLOWER TIMING DURING THE DAY. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FOR THURSDAY. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON THURSDAY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. EXCEPTION WOULD BE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE STRATOCU IS FCST TO GET STUCK UNDER INVERSION. THEN A RADIATING NIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND OVERALL FAIR DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTHWEST LATE. FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND, GOING TO OPT TOWARD THE STRONGER OP (VS THEIR ENSEMBLE MEAN RUNS) ECMWF AS CLOSE TO A CONSISTENCY COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT. MAY TAKE A COUPLE OF MORE SOUNDING RUNS TO GET ALL OF THE NORTHERN STREAM PLAYERS SURROUNDED BY LAND BASED SOUNDINGS. THE PATTERN ITSELF EVEN IF PROGRESSIVE, DOES BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED. POPS WERE INCREASED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND MENTION OF SNOW GETS INTO THE RARITAN BASIN AND PHL NORTHWEST SUBURBS. THE ONE CONSISTENCY IS THAT IT WILL GET WINDY WITH THREE SUCCESSIVE SOUNDING RUNS GIVING US WIND ADVY TYPE WIND GUSTS. WILL START MENTION IN THE HWO. SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON SUNDAY, WITH A CALMER AND SUNNIER DAY ON MONDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA POSSIBLY GETTING THEIR FIRST FREEZE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO CLOSE TO NORMAL ON MONDAY DAY.
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&& .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...SCATTER SHOWERS. TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND OR SNOW SHOWERS. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES, CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURG TUE. THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WLY THEN SWLY. A WARM FNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUE AND SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE. THIS INCREASED SWLY FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TWD THE END OF THE PD, BUT BOTH WIND AND SEAS SHUD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA ESPECIALLY WITH WARM TEMPS OVER COOLER WATERS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO BULLISH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND WAVES BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY..BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCA WINDS AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLEIN NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...GIGI/IOVINO MARINE...GIGI/KLEIN/NIERENBERG

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