Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241509 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1009 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT SWEEPS OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, LEADING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE 70S, AND NEAR RECORD, IF NOT RECORD BREAKING WARMTH IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS. AS WE MIX THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS, WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS HAVE LIFTED TO OUR NORTH, SO A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SERN CANADA, IT`S CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ERLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, LATEST GUID INDICATES IT WILL BE DRY AND POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST. HIGH PRES FROM THE SW WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND EXPECT A GENL CLEARING TREND BY MRNG. IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HIGHER THAN WHAT HIGH TEMPS SHUD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... STILL FOCUSED ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING TIME FRAME AND THE POTENTIAL WINTRY IMPACTS TO THE BUSIEST TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS HAVE PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW, COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ECMWF IS STILL THE FURTHEST WEST AND LEAST PROGRESSIVE, WHILE THE GFS SEEMS TO BE A COMFORTABLE MIDDLE GROUND, AT LEAST FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW. BY 00Z THURSDAY...THE DIFFERENCE IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS ONLY ABOUT 150 MILES. THE ONE PUZZLING THING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE GFS CAME IN CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS, ODD GIVEN ITS TRACK OF THE LOW. AS FAR AS PRECIP TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND NAM ALL INDICATE EITHER RAIN, RAIN/SNOW, OR SNOW (ALTHOUGH THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE TRANSITIONS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BETWEEN THE MODELS...SEE BELOW). THUS, AT THIS POINT DON/T HAVE ANY CONCERNS FOR FREEZING PRECIP OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. LETS TALK TURKEY....FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, STILL EXPECT A PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT ROUGHLY AROUND THE I 95 CORRIDOR. NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE AMOUNTS FROM 2 UP TO 8 INCHES (THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NW NJ AND THE POCONOS). EAST OF THE FALL LINE COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS WITH THE WATER TEMPERATURE STILL IN THE 50S, THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP THEM WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH OUT THE EVENT. THE CAVEAT TO ALL OF THIS IS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION AND EVEN SNOW RATIOS IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE TEMPERATURE, AND WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD OUTLIER OF THE GFS, THERE IS POOR MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE, SO SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER THE CANADIAN EASTERN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY MORNING, SO PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT QUICKLY BY THEN, IF NOT SOONER. BEYOND THANKSGIVING...STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS TO FOCUS ON THE MID WEEK STORM. COLD AIR SHOULD SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ANOTHER WARM FRONT SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALL TAF SITES HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ACY WHERE IFR CIGS REMAIN, THROUGH AN IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR ACY AS WELL. AS DAYTIME MIXING OCCURS, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO BEGIN BREAKING AND LIFTING, WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY S TO SW WIND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...SHOULD GENERALLY BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW IN THE DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY (KTTN KPNE KPHL AND KILG) AND MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY. THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .MARINE... THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN AS DAYTIME PEAK HEATING SHOULD ALLOW STRONGER WIND TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. ONCE THE GALE WARNING ENDS, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OCEAN FRONT AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NEAR OR JUST BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL TO SCA CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT. FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. && .CLIMATE... FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. RECORD HIGHS 11/24: ACY: 72 SET IN 1999 PHL: 71 SET IN 1979 ILG: 73 SET IN 1979 ABE: 69 SET IN 1931 TTN: 71 SET IN 1979 GED: 75 SET IN 1992 RDG: 69 SET IN 1979 MPO: 64 SET IN 1931 RECORD HIGHEST TEMP SO LATE IN THE SEASON (NOV 24)...JUST IN CASE WE REACH THIS VALUE. ACY: 77 12/7/1997 PHL: 73 12/7/1998 AND LAST OF SEVERAL ILG: 75 12/4/1998 ABE: 72 12/29/1984 AND LAST OF SEVERAL TTN: 76 12/7/1998 (LATTER OF TWO) GED: 77 12/1/1991 (SHORTER POR) RDG: 77 12/29/1984 MPO: 67 11/29/1990 REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS: NOVEMBER 26TH: NOVEMBER 27TH: PERIOD OF RECORD: ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955 1.2 INCHES 1978 1874 PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898 6.9 INCHES 1949,1938 1872 ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950 4.5 INCHES 1978 1894 ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925 7.0 INCHES 1938 1922 OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ054-055. NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007-008. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG/JOHNSON MARINE...ROBERTSON/NIERENBERG/JOHNSON CLIMATE...KLINE/IOVINO/DRAG

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