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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 150141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY PUSHING TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST MONDAY, AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NJ HAVE MOVED SOUTH AND DIMINISHED...A FEW
AREAS RECEIVED .2 TO .5 INCHES IN THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING. ONE
LSR ISSUED FOR 1/2 INCH HAIL IN WEST AMWELL TWP...HUNTERDON
COUNTY. SKIES BECOMING CLR OVERNIGHT. I HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES
WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH...MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID
50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER
OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES TO OUR SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS TENDING TO TURN WESTERLY OR EVEN
SOUTHWEST. THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL NORTHWESTERLY, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT TO ALLOW SOMEWHAT OF A SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PROBABLY HOLD CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES FORECAST TO BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST, AND WITH INCREASING WAA UP THE OHIO VALLEY
COMBINED WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, SOME HIGHER LEVELS CLOUDS
MAY ARRIVE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE AT
LEAST SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. OVERALL THOUGH, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED WITH SOME LOCAL
MODIFICATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
PUSHING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WE STILL
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO LAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING SUNDAY,
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGING A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE
WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS TO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING; ALTHOUGH THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. WE
HAVE KEPT MAINLY CHANCE POPS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME, GRADUALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE COURSE OF SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY, A COUPLE OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MAY PASS ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND, WE MAY HAVE MORE SCATTERED SHWR/T-STORM
ACTIVITY. BY TUESDAY, THE MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT; ALTHOUGH,
MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW PRESSURE FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND REGION, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
APPROACHING AND CROSSING OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. OF NOTE, THE LATEST GFS RUN NOW DEVELOPS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
REGION, WITH THIS LOW THEN INTENSIFYING SOME AS IT PASSES OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES STEADILY RISE ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT. WHILE THE FINER
DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW WILL BE ADJUSTED AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME
CLOSER IN AGREEMENT, WE HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY.

BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING EAST AND OFFSHORE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST STATES BEGINS TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARBY AND
INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


EARLY TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KNOTS. LATER TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
PERHAPS ACROSS ERN PA (PNE) WHERE SHOWERS OCCURRED EARLIER
TONIGHT. FOG HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THESE AREAS.

SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME CUMULUS OR HIGH CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST OR SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LOWERING TO MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHWRS/T-STORMS, ESPECIALLY EACH AFTN/EVE.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY, BUT SHWRS/T-STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY AFTN TO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
LOWERING TO MVFR.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, THEN SLIDE
TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.


THE WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE ON THE WATERS THIS EVENING.
WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SCA FLAG ALONG MOST OF THE WATERS...BUT
CHOSE TO KEEP IT GOING ALONG THE DELAWARE OCEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT.
BUOY 44009 IS SHOWING SEAS STILL AROUND 6 FT...AND NOT CHANGING
MUCH. THE SEAS THERE SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT BY DAWN.

WINDS AND SEAS SAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY AND THE SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN 2 TO 4 FT.

OUTLOOK...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE ANTICIPATE WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA AS OUR REGION AND COASTAL WATERS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE. DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, AND WHILE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA, SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ455.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/KLINE