Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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518 FXUS61 KPHI 101959 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 259 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER 1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1 INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25 MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
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PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES, MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH 11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ. WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO TONIGHT. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE, SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS. PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND. THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT. TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG. WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE. GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE. THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS. OUTLOOK... SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO. SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS. 2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH ABE 8......... -1 1979 ACY 10........ -6 1979 PHL 12........ +2 1979 ILG 12........ -4 1979 RDG 10........ -4-1983 TTN 9......... 0 1916 GED 13........ -7 1979 MPO -1........ -12 1970 SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431. GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES/FRANCK 257 NEAR TERM...DRAG 257 SHORT TERM...DRAG 257 LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 257 MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 257 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...257 CLIMATE...257

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