Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220715 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 315 AM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will prevail across the area today. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley tonight will move east of the mid Altantic coast by Thursday night. High pressure just to our north Friday will move off the new New England coast by Sunday and then into the western Atlantic early next week. A cold front will approach from the west next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... We will add a climate section at 5am inclusive of ydys record wind gust at Brandywine Shoal and maybe daily record rainfall for this Thursday vicinity KPHL-KACY south. Early this morning...fair skies with patchy stratus-fog, especially where it rained this Tuesday afternoon or evening (se PA, ne MD, n DE s NJ). The 2m temp fcst from the gfs 00z/06z 21 fcst picked up on the lower 50s for early this morning near and north of I80. Today...Mostly sunny and becoming breezy 10 AM to 4 PM with some scattered-broken afternoon cumulus. especially near and north of I-78. Northwest winds gust to 20-25 mph. PWAT for comparison purposes upcoming to Thursday and yesterday, down to 0.8-0.9 inches. Forecast elements were derived from a 50 50 blend of the 00z/22 gfs/nam mos guidance checked against the 00z/22 ecmwf. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Clea or Mostly clear to start with radiational cooling, especially countryside near and north of I-78 where upper 40s may occur by 08z/23. For now fcstg 50s there, since thick cloud may be arriving around 3-4 am there. Elsewhere rapidly increasing mid and high clouds between 11pm and 3am, south of I-78. Showers develop shortly after, around sunrise southeastern sections of Pa and Md upper eastern shore through De and the s third of NJ in waa. iso tstms possible mainly de and MD eastern shore after 4 am. PWAT increases to nearly 2 inches Delmarva by 12z Thursday and 1.5 inches near I-80. Forecast elements were derived from a 50 50 blend of the 00z/22 gfs/nam mos guidance checked against the 00z/22 ecmwf and the 00z/22 NSSL WRF which looks good for its qpf onset. The 00z/22 SPC WRF looks like something went wrong. it has virtually nothing here late tonight. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through Thursday night...This looks to be the more active part of the long term. Another low pressure system will emerge from the plains stares and head across the Great Lakes. The low will then move across the mid Atlantic states on Wednesday. The abundance of warm/humid air on the south of the low and the associated fronts will produce another round of showers/tstms. Severe weather is a strong possibility with the SPC Day 3 outlook now showing 1/2 the area (Srn) in an outlook. The weather will end from w to e through the night Thu. A briefing package has been already sent to highlight this weather and the HWO will also have mention of it. Temperatures this period mostly near normal. Fri thru Sun...A mostly dry period with high pressure returning to the area. If the system is a bit slower to clear, there may be some lingering showers during the morning across the ern areas. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Fri, rising to above normal by Sun. Sun night thru Tue...Plenty of uncertainty, but the ridge across the area will be waning and a h5 trough will be progressing towards the area. A cold front should cross the area early next week. We stuck with the chc pops that were in there, since it matches well with nearby offices. Temperatures will be above normal with mid/upper 80s for highs Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...VFR with patchy cigs near 8000 ft passing through the north early today, including KRDG/KABE while patchy IFR stratus/fog is in the vicinity of KPHL and KILG eastward to near KMIV-KACY. light or calm wind. After 12z today...VFR scattered clouds aoa 7000 ft. Winds become northwest and gust 20 kt everywhere 14z-21z. Tonight...VFR with cigs developing aoa 5000 ft after 06z/23. Mid level warm air advection showers should develop by 10z/23 vicinity PHL- KILG westward. outlook... tonight thru Thu night...Showers and Tstms may bring lower cigs/vsbys thru the period. Svr tstms possible from the Delaware valley and areas south. Fri thru Sun...VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas continues. Once waves subside later this morning, expect winds and seas to remain below SCA criteria through the remainder of the day though it may be close on near shore northwest wind gusts to around 22-23kt during the midday afternoon hours. RIP CURRENTS: Probably issuing a moderate risk today but need to confirm at 5am. outlook... Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mostly sub-sca conditions. Some low end SCA seas across the srn waters Wed night and Thu. Tstms with local higher winds and seas expected. Fri thru Sun...Mostly sub- sca conditions with fair weather. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ451>455. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Drag 315 Short Term...Drag 315 Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg 315 Marine...Drag/Nierenberg 315

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