Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240748 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 348 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY, BUT VERY LITTLE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL AS WE WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OFFSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH ONLY AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO AROUND, OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT. WE DO NOT HAVE TEMPERATURES LOW ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS THE AREAS IN THEIR GROWING SEASON, SO NO NEED FOR ANY FROST STATEMENTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. AN EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OVER EASTERN CANADA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WE SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM`S CYCLONIC FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM AROUND PENNSYLVANIA`S NORTHERN BORDER INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH IT REACHING SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND ITS COASTAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING SHOWERS TO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG WITH LIFT FROM THE FRONT TO RESULT IN SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION IN OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR ARE FORECAST TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL AT THAT TIME. ANOTHER MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS SURFACE REFLECTION ARE EXPECTED TO GET PICKED UP BY THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN CANADA LOW AND THEY ARE FORECAST TO BE DRAWN TOWARD OUR REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY, THEN SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AND POSSIBLY BECOME IFR AT TIMES. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR. LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES MAY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH 10 AM AS WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY COULD HOLD A COUPLE OF HOURS LONGER. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND GUSTS WILL DROP OFF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE TONIGHT, KEEPING SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS. TUESDAY NIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG, GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS IN THE TEENS EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOT BE FREQUENT AND SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON

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