Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201952 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 352 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MIDWEST STATES TO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY, AND A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING AS DRYING TAKES PLACE AT THAT LEVEL. MEANWHILE, BANDS OF CIRRUS FROM THE WEST WILL PASS OVERHEAD. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WE ARE EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS. READINGS MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN PARTS OF THE POCONO REGION AND IN PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST UP NORTH CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD COVER OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE AREA OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY. THE CORE OF THE AREA OF RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TONIGHT BEFORE PASS OVER THE VIRGINIAS AND OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATE ON THURSDAY. WE HAVE BROUGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 78 AND WE MENTION THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES WILL FALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH MAY FALL AS FAR NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH OF THERE. THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ACTUALLY, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION ON THURSDAY MAY BE IN OUR NORTHERN VALLEYS WHERE HIGHS MAY GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... TO START THE LONG TERM, A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE EMERGING OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS THEN PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW PRESSURE EMERGES OFF THE COAST, FROM AROUND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER OR A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. SOME DIFFERENCES ALSO EXIST WITH REGARDS TO MODELED QPF, WITH THE NAM BEING A WETTER SOLUTION AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND ECMWF, AND ITS TRACK ALSO BEING THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION. NONETHELESS, OVERALL TREND THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT WILL BE FOR PRECIP TO BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AS WE HANG ON TO CHANCE POPS THE LONGEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES. INTO FRIDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSING FARTHER NORTHEAST OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A RATHER BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES. IN THIS FLOW, ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS OUT REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING. WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE, WE HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY; ALTHOUGH, WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FOR A TIME. WINDS THEN RELAX LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST STATES. A COOL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 30S AND PATCHY FROST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS. LIGHT WINDS, AMPLE SUN, AND NEAR AVERAGE MAY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE SUNDAY WILL STILL BE PLEASANT, TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE CREEPING UPWARD A FEW DEGREES AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EASES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THIS WARMING TREND AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE THEN INTO MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND OUR REGION MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY AS THIS BOUNDARY PASSES NORTH FOR SOME SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR MEMORIAL DAY, SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY IS THEN EXPECTED GOING INTO TUESDAY AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH. BUILDING INSTABILITY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL YIELD MORE SCATTERED SHWR/TSTORM POTENTIAL, AND WE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER UPPER 70S/LOW 80S FARTHER NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH REGARDS TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIP POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND FOR NOW, WE INTRODUCED SOME VERY LOW POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1400Z. THE SKY SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD BE AROUND 10,000 FEET. LIGHT RAIN IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AROUND 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KRDG AND KABE. LIGHT RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR KILG, KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY AT THOSE LOCATIONS WITH CEILINGS STAYING ABOVE 3000 FEET AND VISIBILITY VALUES STAYING ABOUT 5 MILES. THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON KMIV AND KACY THAN ON OUR TAF SITES TO THE NORTH. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO MVFR AT KMIV AND KACY ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND MAY DEVELOP AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND KILG. THE WIND MAY REMAIN VARIABLE AT KMIV AND KACY OR IT COULD SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THOSE LOCATIONS. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR; ALTHOUGH, SOME LINGERING RAIN/SHWRS MAY MEAN SOME SUB-VFR THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT MAINLY FROM AROUND KMIV/KACY AND SOUTH. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SATURDAY...CONTINUED VFR WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS; ALTHOUGH, SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS AND SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST NEAR CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA LATE ON THURSDAY. THE NORTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH THEN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. A VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY MORNING. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE SOUTHWEST ON OUR NORTHERN WATERS, AND THE NORTHEAST ON OUR SOUTHERN WATERS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEY SHOULD BE 2 FEET OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH, FIRST AS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT TO SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CONTINUED SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS STILL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR TSTORMS. && .FIRE WEATHER... FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THERE MAY BE THE RISK FOR ENHANCED WILDFIRE SPREAD AS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. IN ADDITION, THIS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEARING 30 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS ALONG WITH DRY FINE FUELS. && .RIP CURRENTS... SST`S ABOVE NORMAL AND JUST OFF THE COAST SSTS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY ALMOST 3C. THIS IS NOT GOOD ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. ATLANTIC COASTAL WATER TEMPS ARE WARMING --UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE FIRE WEATHER...KLINE RIP CURRENTS...DRAG

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