Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 011918 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 318 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. BUT A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, UNTIL A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A HOT STEAMY DAY WILL TURN INTO A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE IN RESPONSE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE WARM AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AND THE INLAND MOVING SEA/BAY BREEZE. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE LOSE THE SUN AND THE WINDS WEAKEN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO PAST THE SEVERAL NIGHTS BUT WITH SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN TEMPS MAY END UP STAYING A DEGREE OR TOO WARMER. EVEN WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN, THEY WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT WE WILL SEE SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKE PLACE. WITH THE DEWPOINTS REMAINING HIGH, IN THE 60S/70S OVERNIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THAT SAME RANGE, THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... SUMMER WILL CONTINUE ITS MARCH INTO SEPTEMBER WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN SOARING INTO THE 90S. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AND BECOMES A BIT TROUGHY. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE A TROUGH REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A SEA/BAY BREEZE DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A SHOWER MAY SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. BEST CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE SOUTHERN EASTERN SHORE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A QUIET WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST REMAINS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE TROUGH BEING IN PLACE. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH FRIDAY MAY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM THE NORTH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL, BEFORE COOLING OFF SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A SEA BREEZE IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD MAKE IT TO KTTN AND KPNE, POSSIBLY KPHL AND KILG. A BAY BREEZE HAS PUSHED INLAND INTO KMIV THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS REMAINING AROUND THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE SUN THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, WE WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY...ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AND CLEAR OUT BY AROUND 15Z AND WE SHOULD BE VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT, AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED DECKS AROUND 5000FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THE EASTERLY FETCH BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA

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