Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230929 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 529 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross our region tonight, then high pressure builds across the Northeast over the weekend into early Monday. A warm front should lift north of our area later Monday, with a cold front slowly crossing our region Tuesday and Wednesday. This front may then stall near the coast Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning through sunrise...clear cool and calm nw NJ and much of e PA with spotty countryside fog. Remainder from vcnty I-95 eastward low clouds. Today... Becoming sunny and very warm with max temps 88 or 89 in PHL/ABE and mid-upper 80s elsewhere. MAX temps may occur today between 4 and 5PM when the BL temp is warmest. winds become light west. Max temps are forecast generally 10-15F above normal but below record. Wont be surprised at isolated 90F this afternoon at the typically hotter I-95 spots...maybe near KSMQ. Forecast basis is a 50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos except as noted which in this case...raising guidance max temps based on GFS2m temp of 85 at 18z and an expected 17C at 850MB. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
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Cold frontal passage from north to south. Have doubts about CFP passage prior to 6 AM fm KESN to KGED southward. Low or mid clouds and a briefly gusty ne wind to 20 mph accompany the CFP. It`s possible the max temp for the calendar day of Sept 24 will occur at 1 am in a few spots around PHL (74-75F). Small chance of a shower or isolated tstm near and north of I-78 this evening. NSSL WRF finally ran and posted and it has less than my pops and so, confidence on any shower activity where now forecast, is below average! Pwat 1.4-1.5 inches this evening dries to .5 inches I-80 north by morning so that mins KMPO to KFWN and KMPO may again be near 50. Forecast basis:50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos guidance. Lows tonight are 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Calendar day lows will occur near midnight Saturday night.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Summary...A taste of Fall Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday before perhaps some moderation occurs. The chance of rain next week highly depends on the strength and timing of a cold front near the middle of next week. The synoptic setup is comprised of amplified flow over the weekend which then carries through much of next week. A strong upper-level trough will be across the Northeast over the weekend while a closed low traverses the Plains and Midwest. There continues to be model differences with the evolution of these, especially the trough moving across the Plains. This will impact the timing of a cold front into our area next week. Some ridging should move across our area Monday, with surface high pressure shifting offshore. Given the extent of the amplified flow, a slower system would tend to allow more moisture return northward. We used a model/continuity blend Saturday into Monday, then blended the 00z WPC Guidance into continuity thereafter. Some adjustments were then made following additional collaboration with our neighboring offices. For Saturday and Sunday...A strong upper-level trough slides across the Northeast. This will push a cold front to our south to start Saturday as surface high pressure, situated just north of the Great Lakes to start the day, builds southeastward. This results in a northeast low-level flow along with deepening cold/dry air advection. As the cold air advection increases, there appears to be enough low-level moisture initially remaining in place. This combined with warmer ocean water may result in an area of low clouds sliding southward especially across New Jersey and Delaware Saturday morning with even a shower. As the day wears on, much drier air should overtake the region and the clouds should thin out from north to south. As of now, we increased the cloud cover in the morning but kept the forecast dry. It may be a bit breezy for a time Saturday especially along the coast ahead of the building surface high. Sunday should be a true Fall day across the area. There should be enough subsidence and drying to promote less clouds at night, therefore both nights should be cool to chilly. Some guidance is showing the potential for mid to upper 30s Saturday night and especially Sunday night across portions of the Poconos and far northwestern New Jersey. If this occurs then patchy frost is possible, especially if high cloudiness holds off during Sunday night. For Monday and Tuesday...A very amplified pattern is forecast with a trough departing New England and another strong trough moving across the Plains and Midwest. In between, a ridge arrives in our area during Monday. This will drive surface high pressure over our area to start Monday before shifting offshore into Tuesday. Given some warm air advection, a warm front may move to our north later Monday although lift looks limited with it. The guidance differs some with the evolution of a strong closed low that moves across the Great Lakes and toward the Northeast. Some guidance breaks off the energy and keeps a second closed low back across the southwestern states and into the southern Plains. We leaned more toward the setup of following a closed low across the north, which is closest to the WPC Guidance. This evolution will determine the timing and strength of a cold front that eventually arrives in our area. As of now, we have it arriving Tuesday however given the uncertainty only low POPs were carried. Some temperature moderation should occur Tuesday ahead of the front. For Wednesday and Thursday...There is the potential for a strong trough or closed low to arrive in the region during this time frame. The details are less certain given the rather amplified pattern that is advertised by the model guidance. If the closed low idea pans out, the timing could be slower which will also impact the movement of a surface cold front. As of now, we bring the front slowly through Wednesday and it may stall for a time near the coast Thursday. There is the chance for a decent ribbon of enhanced moisture and lift to shift eastward ahead of the trough/closed low and associated cold front, however the overall evolution and therefore details are of lower confidence and thus the POPs were kept on the low side. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning prior to 12z...cigs 500-1500 ft vcnty KACY/KMIV KPHL/KPNE/KTTN with VFR conditions elsewhere. calm or light northwest wind. Today after 12z....VFR few cirrus with the wind becoming west or southwest this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt. Tonight...VFR to start then sct-bkn layers aoa 2500 ft spread southward with a wind shift to ne and gusty to 20 kt for an hour subsequent to a cold frontal passage. There is a slight chance of rain showers with the front at KABE and KTTN late but not in the TAF attm due to very low forecast confidence. OUTLOOK... Saturday and Sunday...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday morning especially south and east of PHL, then VFR through Sunday as drier air arrives. North-northeast winds 10-15 knots Saturday, becoming less than 10 knots later in the day and through Sunday. Monday and Tuesday...VFR overall. Some showers are possible on Tuesday. Winds becoming southeast at 10 knots or less Monday, then southwest on Tuesday.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines today. We may(?) need an sca for ne wind gusts 25 kt in ANZ450-51 and seas building to 5 ft there after 08z/24. Otherwise winds becoming westerly for a time today (after sunrise) then south southwest this afternoon (sea breeze influence) before shifting light northwest this evening and then north northeast gusty to at least 20 kt behind the cold frontal passage early Saturday morning. OUTLOOK... A cold air advection surge in the wake of a cold front within a north-northeast wind Saturday may result in 25 knot gusts and seas near 5 feet. However, this may be short in duration and therefore held off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory at this time. The conditions overall then Sunday through Tuesday are anticipated to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria. RIP CURRENTS... The probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents today is low to moderate. The 3 ft 10 second swell is bothersome and certainly enhances a low risk. Weekend...shaping up as a low enhanced or moderate risk. Essentially, swim in the presence of any remaining lifeguards to ensure safety. Early next week... Monday odds favor low risk. Tuesday and Wednesday odds favor low enhanced or moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.
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&& .CLIMATE... September continues on its way to a top 10 warmest September through most of our forecast area, and...for the 3rd consecutive month! Today probably is the last for 80s the rest of the month. Next, how many below normal days will occur between the 24th-30th. Right now, guidance has considerable variability suggesting a range of 2-4 days. This still is not likely to be enough to prevent a third consecutive top ten warmest month for much of the NWS Mount Holly forecast area. In this case a probable second consecutive top 5 warmest month in the period of record for PHL and ABE (not likely a top 5 for ACY). We`ve run the actual numbers through the 22nd, and then our 330 am forecast from today through the 30th. While there is considerable run to run and operational model variability on outcomes Wednesday through Friday...it all averages out as follows at several long term climate sites, representing both urban and countryside in our forecast area. Philadelphia: Projects about 4.5 degrees above the monthly normal of 69.1. This will be a #4 or #5 warmest September on record for Philadelphia. Philadelphia September average temperature rankings 75.4 -1881 74.5 -2015 74.1 -1931 74.1 -1930 73.8 -2005 73.7 -2016 #5 72.9 -2010 72.9 -1921 72.4 -1900 Philly ranked #7 warmest July followed by a warmest ever August (in the POR dating back to 1874). Atlantic City: where there can be greater variability due to the sea breeze cooling during the afternoon and the radiative cooling at night, is still projecting near a 71.5 degree monthly average temperature, or 4+ degrees above the monthly normal of 67.2. Odds are locking into a top 4 to 8 warmest September in the period of record dating back to 1874. Atlantic City recorded a #7 warmest July and warmest ever August. 73.3 - 1961 72.8 - 1881 72.3 - 1931 and 1930 71.7 - 1921 71.6 - 2015 71.5 - 1933 71.4 - 2016 but low confidence that it will remain #7 71.3 - 2005 71.0 - 2010 70.6 - 2011 and 1906 Allentown: projects to a monthly average of near 69.6 degrees, or almost 6 degrees above the monthly normal of 63.9 and a highly probable 4th or 5th warmest September on record. Allentown ranked 8th warmest July and #2 warmest August. 70.8 - 1961 70.3 - 1980 69.7 - 2015 69.6 - 2016 #4 69.4 - 1931 68.7 - 2005 68.2 - 1952 Allentown and Philadelphia have so far recorded only 1 day below normal through the first 22 days of September, TTN only 2 days below normal and RDG 3 days below normal. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...Drag Short Term...Drag Long Term...Gorse Aviation...Drag/Gorse Marine...Drag/Gorse Climate...

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