Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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714 FXUS61 KPHI 092247 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 547 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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530 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO WHERE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BURST OF SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT. THE MORE PRONOUNCED LIFT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED BACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, DESPITE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS JUST BEEN TO WARM AND THAT IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SOME RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF DELMARVA. THERE ARE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THIS MAY BE SOME SLEET OR LARGE WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK. SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING, THEREFORE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE MAY BE CANCELLED IF TRENDS HOLD IN SHIFTING MORE OF THE SNOW FARTHER NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING THERE, HOWEVER WE MAY VERY WELL FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA IN DELAWARE COUNTY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE. ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA. TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON. PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY. WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST. IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES /LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z. WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.
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&& .MARINE... FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE. OUTLOOK... A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL. NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND. THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY. ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE. FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED AWAY FROM THE COAST. && .CLIMATE... NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH ABE 8......... -1 1979 ACY 10........ -6 1979 PHL 12........ +2 1979 ILG 12........ -4 1979 RDG 10........ -4-1983 TTN 9......... 0 1916 GED 13........ -7 1979 MPO -1........ -12 1970 ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060- 061-071-103>106. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101- 102. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014. DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008- 012-015. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008- 012. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015- 019-020. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...GORSE SHORT TERM...FRANCK LONG TERM...KRUZDLO AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO CLIMATE...DRAG

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