Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 261936 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY STALL IN OUR VICINITY ON MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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THE GFS INITIALIZATION OF THE 500MB RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST LOOKED TOO WEAK AND DISPLACED TO THE EAST, POSSIBLY WHY ITS QPF WAS SO MUCH FARTHER EAST TONIGHT THAN ANY OTHER MODEL. AT 850MB BOTH THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB LOOKED EQUALLY GOOD, WHILE THE GFS LOOKED BETTER 9WARMER) AT 925MB. THERE IS DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE, FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE LACK OF ROBUST UPSTREAM ACTIVITY, WE ARE GOING WITH THE NON-GFS CONSENSUS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THE 500MB RIDGE HOLDING TOUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST, WE ARE KEEPING LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA WHERE SOME WEAKENING SHORT WAVES AND RESIDUAL PCPN MIGHT MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. BECAUSE OF THE FARTHER UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF US, IT LOOKS TO BE A CLOUDIER NIGHT. COUPLED WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS, BOTH POINT TO HIGHER AND MORE UNCOMFORTABLE MIN TEMPERATURES. WE WENT CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
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YESTERDAY, THURSDAY LOOKED LIKE THE BETTER CONVECTIVE DAY. NOW IT APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. NOT THAT WEDNESDAY DAY APPEARS JUICIER FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA, IT HAS MORE TO DO WITH THE DEMISE OF THURSDAY AS A VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE PRODUCER. SHORT WAVES EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONVECTION ARE PREDICTED TO COME AROUND THE SAME RIDGE. THE TIMING COINCIDING WITH MAXIMUM HEATING OF THE DAY LOOKS BEST IN PA WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS. CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF TSTMS REACHING LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST IS LOWER. OUR TIMING IS CLOSEST TO MODELING CONSENSUS, CAN RGEM FROM A RAIN STANDPOINT WOULD BE MOST BENEFICIAL AS ITS TIMING IS ABOUT THREE HOURS FASTER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AND THUS BETTER COINCIDENCE OF HEATING AND CONVECTION. AS FAR AS STRONG/SEVERE GOES, MODEL PREDICTED MIX LAYER CAPES HAS INCREASED FROM YESTERDAY AND IS NOW AVERAGING 1000-1500J, HIGHEST NW. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A LEE SIDE OR SUSQ VLY TROF FORMING WHICH SHOULD AID IN POOLING. PREDICTED BULK SHEAR IS EH, WITH 25KT VALUES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA AND MUCH LESS SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE TSTMS ARE MOST LIKELY ARE RATHER MODEST (5.5C/KM), WE DO HAVE WARMER TEMPS AT 500MB ARRIVING. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 250MB JET IS STILL RATHER NORTHWEST. THE ONE PLUS IS THAT MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS STILL PREDICTING APPROXIMATELY A 15C DROP IN THETA E VALUES AND THE THETA E RIDGE IN ITSELF PASSES OVER OUR CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A CASE OF NON HOME GROWN STRONGER STORMS INITIATING FIRST WITH NEARLY A CLIMO POTENTIAL OF A COUPLE STORMS GOING SEVERE. BEST CHANCES NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. PWATS ARE PRETTY HIGH, TOPPING AROUND 1.75", BUT MODELING IS SHOWING OK PROGRESSION AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THE FLOODING THREAT (BEYOND POOR DRAINAGE) IS RELATIVELY LOW. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE ARE GOING ABOVE ALL STAT GUIDANCE (A NEAR STATUS QUO FROM TODAY) BASED ON PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS OF 20-21C. THIS SHOULD GET US INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (SANS ELEVATION AND IMMEDIATE COAST) AS MODELING IDEA OF MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY LOOKS OVERDONE. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A LEE SIDE TROF, WE ACCEPTED STAT GUIDANCE DEW POINTS. THIS HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 90F, WHICH IS BELOW EARLY SEASON HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST. A CDFNT WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PD AND WASH OUT ON THU THERE CUD BE SOME SHRA/TSRA LINGERING WED NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS AS TO AREAL COVERAGE AND HOW LONG ANY PRECIP LINGERS. HOWEVER, ALL GUID HAS TRENDED DRIER, AND SOMETIMES A PERSISTENCE FCST IS THE BEST APPROACH. THE NAM AND GFS ARE NOW VIRTUALLY DRY ON THU, WITH THE CMC AND ECMWF HAVING SOME PRECIP IN THE AFTN. AGAIN, THE TREND IS DRIER AND POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD. ON FRI, THE ECMWF HAS SOME PRECIP, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. THE CMC HAS SOME PRECIP AS WELL. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT MANY TRIGGERS, EXCEPT FOR DAYTIME HEATING. SO CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWERING POPS. THE NEXT FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE EC KEEPS SAT DRY, WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP IN LATE. BY SUN MRNG, THE GFS HAS THE FRONT THRU THE AREA, WHILE THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP A WAVE ON THE FRONT AND LINGER IT INTO EARLY MON. WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SLOWER WITH THE FRONT AND STALLING IT INVOF OUR AREA, THE 26/12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED MARKEDLY DRIER WITH THE FCST BEYOND 12Z MON. IT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. NOT SURE IF THIS IS A ONE MDL RUN CHANGE OR THE START OF A TREND, BUT HAVE BEGUN THE DOWNWARD PUSH ON POPS. IF THE ECMWF CONTINUES THIS TREND, POPS MAY BE ABLE TO BE ELIMINATED FOR PARTS OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE AOA NRML THRU THE PD.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. 18Z TAFS WITH VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MID LEVEL DECK CIG LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE FRONT HAS FORMED AND EXTENDS FROM SE MONMOUTH INTO EASTERN OCEAN, SOUTHEAST BURLINGTON, EASTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL CAPE MAY. GIVEN THE GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE A TOUGH TIME ADVANCING FARTHER TO THE WEST THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF TERMINALS, LOWEST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS EVE IN KRDG, HIGHER CONFIDENCE KPHL TO COAST. EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...VFR. MID LEVEL DECK CIG FROM KPHL METRO AREA AIRPORTS WEST AND NORTH. SOME RESIDUAL ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE NWRN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, TOO LOW A CHANCE TO INCLUDE. SOUTH WINDS DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE ABOUT A MVFR CIG FORMING ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. FOG WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF MID DECK CIG DOES NOT MATERIALIZE. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...CIGS AND VSBYS BECOMING VFR. CU DECK HEIGHT IS WEIGHED TOWARD START OF FCST PERIOD, IT SHOULD BECOME HIGHER AS MORNING AND AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL START FORMING WEST OF THE AREA, TIMING FOR KPHL CLOSE TO 00Z SO NOT INCLUDED IN PRESENT TAF. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT...LINGERING SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY EARLY. BETTER CHANCES ACROSS RDG/ABE. MVFR/IFR PSBL IN SHRA/TSRA. MDT CONFIDENCE. THU-SUN...EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS FOLLOWED BY SCT AFTN SHRA/TSRA. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHICH DAYS AND AREAS WILL SEE SHRA/TSRA.
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&& .MARINE...
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WITH AT THE COAST BASED NETWORKS SHOWING WIND GUSTS GETTING TO 25 KT AND WITH MODELING SHOWING SIMILAR SPEEDS ALOFT INTO WEDNESDAY, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A SCA. BETTER MIXING WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN ON SEAS. REGARDLESS, SOME 5 FOOT SEAS REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OFFSHORE. WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, BASICALLY THERE IS A SEPARATION OF STRONGEST WINDS (RIGHT ALONG THE COAST) FROM THE HIGHEST SEAS (FARTHER OFFSHORE). OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT...SCA FLAG HAS BEEN RAISED FOR MARGINAL WIND BUT SEAS AOA 5 FT. THU THROUGH SAT...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT CUD APPROACH SCA BY LATE SAT.
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&& .CLIMATE... A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE FIND THE FOLLOWING. FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874. PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2 2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012. FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991. FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES. FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES. NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER. PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC CITY JUNE 11. ************************************************************* HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES. A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2 AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997. THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL. SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS) APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN SPRINGS. SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER. THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE: YEAR JUNE AVG JULY AVG AUGUST AVG SUMMER AVG SUMMER PCPN 1969 73.4 75.1 75.2 74.6 18.30 1977 68.6 77.8 76.2 74.2 15.50 1991 75.7 79.0 79.0 77.9 12.01 AVG 72.6 77.3 76.8 75.6 15.27 1981- 2010 73.3 78.1 76.6 76.0 11.28 NORMAL THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...GIGI SHORT TERM...GIGI LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG CLIMATE...

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