Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 141757 CCA AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1257 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered in the Ohio River Valley this morning will move to the northeast and into Quebec for tonight and Monday. Low pressure is forecast to pass across the southern and eastern Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday. A secondary low is expected to develop off Cape Hatteras on Tuesday before moving northeastward and passing near Cape Cod on Wednesday. High pressure from the west is forecast to build across the southeastern and Middle Atlantic states on Thursday and Friday before moving out to sea. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... High pressure to our west will continue to build to our north as our area remains on the eastern side of the high. It will remain slightly breezy with winds 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts around 20 mph, especially for higher elevations. It will continue to feel colder than the actual temperatures across the area, especially in the Poconos where wind chills will remain below zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... High pressure will be sliding north of the region tonight. More fair weather is expected along with the cold temperatures. Readings tonight will be like Saturday night`s with single digits north and teens across metro Philadelphia and Delmarva. Wind chills will still be cold, but not as cold as Saturday night, since the winds will be somewhat lighter. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A long wave trough is expected to settle over the eastern states for the early and middle parts of the new week. The trough should lift to our northeast late in the week, allowing ridging to build overhead from the west. The pattern will maintain cold conditions in our region through Thursday with a warming trend anticipated as we move toward and into next weekend. Surface high pressure is forecast to be located in Quebec on Monday with a ridge axis extending southwestward along and the to the lee of the Appalachians. As a result, we are anticipating cold dry weather at that time. Weak low pressure moving across the southern and eastern Great Lakes is expected to pull a warm front into our region early on Tuesday with a cold front following late in the day. There is a chance of snow showers across Berks County, the Lehigh Valley, the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey on Monday night. Snow showers are again expected in those areas on Tuesday with the chance of snow showers spreading into the Interstate 95 corridor. Temperatures may warm enough on the coastal plain on Tuesday afternoon to result in the snow showers changing to rain showers for a time. Snowfall totals on Monday night and Tuesday are expected to be light. Little or no accumulation is anticipated for the Interstate 95 corridor. Around an inch is possible in areas to the northwest with up around 2 inches in the elevated terrain of the Poconos. The guidance is coming into agreement regarding the development of a secondary low off the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. However, its potential impact on our region remains uncertain. We will keep a chance of snow in the forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how the models trend with the system`s precipitation shield. The consensus of the model guidance pulls any precipitation away to our east by Thursday morning. High pressure is expected to build across the southeastern and Middle Atlantic states bringing dry weather conditions and a warming trend from late in the week into next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with mostly clear skies. NW winds becoming N this afternoon. Tonight...VFR through most of the night, with MVFR CIGS expected to develop late for ACY/MIV toward daybreak Monday. Mostly N winds 5 to 10 knots becoming NE. OUTLOOK... Monday...MFR CIGS expected to develop and spread inland through the morning. A chance of flurries is possible from RDG-PHL-ACY southward, but not included in TAFS at this time. Monday night...A chance of snow showers around KRDG and KABE with low ceilings and reduced visibility possible. Mainly VFR around KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG, KMIV and KACY. Tuesday...Snow showers likely around KRDG and KABE with low ceilings and reduced visibility at times. A chance of snow and rain showers around KTTN, KPNE, KPHL and KILG with low ceilings and reduced visibility possible. Mainly VFR around KMIV and KACY. Tuesday night and Wednesday...A chance of snow with low ceilings and reduced visibility possible. Wednesday night and Thursday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Winds have dropped below advisory levels on Delaware Bay, therefore the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. The Small Craft Advisory on the Atlantic coastal waters remains in effect. Moderate freezing spray is no longer expected, therefore the Freezing Spray Advisory has been cancelled. However, light freezing spray is expected to continue for the remainder of today and tonight. OUTLOOK... Monday...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect on our ocean waters for waves around 5 feet. Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Light freezing spray is expected. Monday night through Wednesday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Wednesday night and Thursday...A northwest wind gusting to 25 to 30 knots. Light to moderate freezing spray is expected. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Robertson/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/Robertson/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/Robertson/O`Hara

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