Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 142318 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 718 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region tonight and looks to cross through Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday. Cold front approaches Saturday night looking to cross through Sunday. Yet another cold front may pass through Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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715 PM...Clouds will increase through this evening from west to east as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. There will be some isolated light showers approaching toward midnight, mainly up around the Lehigh Valley northward, but possibly down to I-95. It will be an unseasonably mild night with lows in the 50s, and a light southwesterly breeze developing. On Friday, low pressure will track across New England, sending a cold front quickly southward across our region, pushing off the NJ shore in the afternoon, and south of the Delmarva by the evening. That has trended a little bit quicker, and models have also lowered rainfall amounts, especially from around Philadelphia northward, with less than 0.05 inches expected there. Most of the morning looks largely dry, aside from a passing light shower or two. A tenth to a quarter inch is still possible across the Delmarva, as showers redevelop mainly from around Philadelphia to Atlantic City pressing southward through the afternoon. Would not completely rule out a rumble of thunder from around Wilmington to Cape May southward in the afternoon and early evening, but instability is really lacking, and various calibrated thunder probabilities suggest that the chances are less than 10 percent. High temperatures will still be warm, in the 60s and 70s, but with the 70s limited to areas where the front hasn`t come through in the afternoon...probably just south of PHL to ACY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak surface high pressure will begin to build in Friday night as a cold front pushes further offshore. This weak surface high pressure will influence the region Saturday into Saturday night. A rather pronounced, but relatively dry, cold front will then approach the region Saturday night and look to cross through around the time frame of Sunday. The region could see some lingering rain Friday night before the cold front pushes further offshore. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled Friday night but model soundings overall don`t indicate anything impressive in terms of instability. Expect dry conditions for Saturday with weak surface high pressure in control. With the approaching cold front Saturday night, and its anticipated cross through to begin some time Sunday, some light rain cannot be ruled out during these periods. However, most of guidance continues to indicate the front will remain relatively dry on approach and cross through. A couple of light rain showers may occur in our northwestern most areas but elsewhere should remain fairly dry for the Saturday night and Sunday time frame. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The ensembles and deterministic models suggests surface high pressure and a return of colder temperatures will be the main story of the long term. Surface high pressure centered over the central CONUS Sunday night and Monday will gradually make its way eastward with time. This surface high pressure could be centered over the eastern CONUS come the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. With surface high pressure building in and influencing the region, expect conditions to be fairly dry during the long term. However, it is worth mentioning guidance does support a few cold fronts/rounds of shortwave energy passing through during the term. Particularly, another cold front from the northwest looks pass through the region during the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Overall, a couple of rain/snow showers may be in the cards during some periods. Regardless, given the overall synoptic pattern, any showers that manifest should be not be all that impactful. Temperatures will look to be right around average to just slightly below average during the term. Many areas will see high temperatures return to the 40s/low 50s for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday next week. && .AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...Mainly VFR with south to southwest winds generally around 5 knots or so. A light rain shower possible (25-35% chance), mainly northwest of the I-95 terminals later tonight. A 40kt low- level jet develops around 2kft overnight as well so LLWS has been included in TAFs at all sites. Moderate confidence overall. Friday...Remaining VFR despite some showers rolling through, mainly from PHL southward during the afternoon hours. Some MVFR possible south of ILG and MIV into the Delmarva in the afternoon, and would not completely rule out a rumble of thunder down there. Ceilings elsewhere at the TAF sites may drop to 050, and would not rule out brief MVFR VSBY restrictions as far north as PHL, but more likely farther south. Winds in the morning SW to W 10-12 kt, shifting to NW as a cold front passes through from NW to SE from late morning into the afternoon. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Friday night...Sub-VFR conditions possible. N/NW winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence. Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts backing SW with time. Moderate confidence. Saturday night...Mainly VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. W winds 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Moderate confidence. Monday...Mainly VFR. W winds 10-20 kts. Moderate confidence. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 12-17 kts with gusts of 25-30 kts possible. Moderate confidence.
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&& .MARINE... Fair weather will continue into tonight across our marine zones. However, south to southwest winds gradually ramp up tonight, increasing to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Occasional gusts up to 25 kts possible, but should remain isolated and mainly restricted to areas beyond 5-10 nm of shore, so no advisories are anticipated. Southwest winds will then gradually ease off after Friday morning, tending westerly 5-10 kt by the end of the day. Seas 1 to 2 ft this evening, then 2 to 4 feet late tonight through Friday. Outlook... Friday night through Sunday night..No marine headlines anticipated. Outer areas of the oceans zones could flirt with 5 foot seas Saturday night and Sunday morning. Monday...SCA flag possible. Monday night through Tuesday...SCA flag anticipated. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Some spotty minor flooding was observed along portions of the lower Delaware River during the predawn hours Thursday morning, but water levels have receded. Similar but perhaps slightly lower tide levels as we observed this morning can be expected for the next couple high tide cycles this evening and early Friday morning. Worst case would be just for a repeat of some spotty minor flooding along the tidal Delaware and around upper Delaware Bay. Astronomical tide levels will lower through the weekend, ending any coastal flood threat. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin NEAR TERM...Dodd/Fitzsimmons SHORT TERM...Wunderlin LONG TERM...Wunderlin AVIATION...Dodd/Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin MARINE...Dodd/Wunderlin TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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