Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190920 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 520 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build eastward into the region tonight and throughout the day Tuesday. This high pressure system will become anchored offshore through the middle and later parts of this week. A cold frontal boundary is expected to approach from the northwest this weekend into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The center of Hurricane Jose is forecast to continue drifting northward today, remaining about 250 miles off the coasts of Virginia and Maryland. We are expecting a mostly cloudy sky for today. Showers associated with Jose will drift off the ocean, affecting mainly Delaware and New Jersey. However, scattered showers are anticipated to spread into northeastern Maryland and eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are forecast to range from a few hundredths of an inch in our western counties to close to an inch along the New Jersey shore. A northeast to north wind is expected for today. It should range from 5 to 10 MPH in our western counties to 20 to 25 MPH with gusts along the coast. Maximum temperatures are forecast to favor the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of Jose is forecast to start turning northeastward tonight and it should begin to lose it influence on our region gradually. The showers are expected to move eastward and out of our region by about midnight. Clouds should linger over most of New Jersey. However, some clearing is anticipated for parts of eastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva. The wind is anticipated to back to the north and northwest with speeds diminishing to 15 to 20 MPH near the coast. Speeds are forecast to remain in the 5 to 10 MPH range well inland. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday through Friday: Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Bufkit analysis for both the NAM and GFS yields north to northwest winds on the backside of Jose from 10-15 mph on Wednesday with higher gusts to 20 mph. By Thursday and Friday these winds will gradually ease as the high pressure system builds in. If the wind is light enough Thursday morning, a marginal situation for patchy fog right around sunrise may materialize. Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. Typical MET/MAV guidance has be slow to catch up the anomalous warmth coming. Friday night through Monday: Ensemble guidance continues to show us about one-third of all members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites show Jose making a loop back to the southwest around the weekend timeframe. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region. Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance will likely be slow to pick up on the degree of warmth this weekend and early next week. Temperatures were raised a few degrees most days as well. High temperatures may make a run at 90 early next week with heat index values into the 90`s. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest which is looking more unlikely, it would be much weaker. More clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would occur as well. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Conditions are forecast to be mostly in the IFR range this morning from KPHL/KILG/KPNE/KTTN eastward. MVFR conditions are expected at KRDG and KABE. A gradual improvement is anticipated for this afternoon with all but KMIV and KACY returning to VFR by this evening. Frequent rain showers are anticipated for KACY and KMIV today. Scattered rain showers are expected for KTTN, KPNE, KPHL and KILG. The rain showers are forecast to have limited impact on the visibility except perhaps at KACY and KMIV. A northeast wind today is expected to become north and northwest for tonight. Speeds at KPHL/KILG/KPNE/KTTN are forecast to be around 15 knots today with gusts near 25 knots. They should diminish to 10 to 15 knots for tonight. Speeds will be a bit higher at KACY and KMIV, and a bit lower at KRDG and KABE. OUTLOOK... Wednesday through Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 10- 15 knots decreasing on Thursday to under 10 knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and KMIV. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Winds under 10 knots. && .MARINE... We have upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for our ocean waters from Fenwick Island, Delaware to Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey. Sustained wind speeds of 34 knots or greater are anticipated in part of that area. Meanwhile, we will keep the Tropical Storm Watch in place for our ocean waters north of Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey. We now have a Small Craft Advisory for all of Delaware Bay. It continues to appear as though wave heights on our outer ocean waters will build around 15 feet today. OUTLOOK... Seas will be slow to come down through the remainder of the week. Potential is present for seas to fall at or below five feet by Thursday but remain at that level through Saturday. Winds will decrease gradually through Wednesday-Wednesday night from the north and northwest falling below 25 knots on Wednesday. Rip Currents... Hurricane Jose will continue to push powerful swells toward the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey for today. As a result, there remains a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents. Also, a High Surf Advisory is in effect. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for our coastal counties and for the counties along Delaware Bay. It appears as though we will experience minor flooding with this morning`s high tide and moderate flooding with this evening`s high tide as the surge builds near 2 feet above the astronomical tide. Also, we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in place for New Castle County and Salem County for tonight`s high tide. && .EQUIPMENT... KSMQ metar is not being sent out attm. Problem is being looked into. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ452>455. Tropical Storm Watch for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Iovino Marine...Gaines/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...Staff

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