Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 161347 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 947 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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930 AM ESTF HAD INCREASED SKYCOVER IN THE FCST THIS MORNING BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF 75W LONGITUDE. WE MAY NEED TO ADD MORE CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT AND NEW RAIN IS NOW REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NJ AS OF 930 AM. ITS BECOME A BIT OF A SHABBY MORNING IN NJ AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PA WITH LOTS OF LOW CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN COASTAL NJ...OR A A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD THERE BETWEEN 11AM- 1PM. OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38 FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION. WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP, AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS. BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH TIME. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH 16Z...IFR-MVFR CIGS IN LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS MOISTURE FROM JUST N OF KPHL THRU NJ. OTRW FOR KPHL KILG KRDG AND KABE VFR SCT-BKN DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND. AFTER 16Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER KACY AND KMIV. LIGHT NW WIND. TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND. OUTLOOK... WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR 4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1 FT. THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NJ COASTS...ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD. FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG/DRAG 947A NEAR TERM...DRAG 947A SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 947A MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 947A RIP CURRENTS...

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