Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 160740 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 340 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT, COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION. WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP, AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS. BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH TIME. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE VERY LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, BUT THAT SHOULD PASS NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LOWER CLOUDS, AROUND BKN020, AT 12Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 040 OR 050 WILL MOVE IN FIRST, SOMEWHAT INHIBITING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z. OUTLOOK... WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. OUTLOOK... WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD. FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG

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