Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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207 FXUS61 KPHI 080959 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 559 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Bermuda high pressure will remain in place offshore through the week. A slow moving cold front will push southward into the area by later Tuesday into Tuesday night and then waffle across the mid Atlantic through the mid to late week as additional disturbances aloft move through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The overall unsettled, active, and tropical weather pattern will continue Tuesday due to a slow-moving cold front which will work its way toward the area but won`t actually cross through the area until mid-late week. This boundary will act as the trigger for convection in both the severe and hydro departments on Tuesday. PWATs will remain in the range of 1.8-2.3 inches; tall, skinny CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg; and relatively low unidirectional effective shear up to 20 kt supports the potential for training convection where any residual boundaries are in place. There won`t be much dry air to speak of in the DCAPE department, however steep low-level lapse rates combined with water loaded downdrafts will yield a damaging wind threat with any stronger or more organized updrafts. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center continue to highlight the threats for both severe weather and flash flooding with most of our area highlighted in SLIGHT risks for both. As a result, a new Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued that includes all of our forecast area except for Carbon and Monroe Counties. This is in effect from 2 PM Tuesday to midnight. In terms of the timing of convection, it should stay dry through the morning with convection firing near the cold front over our NW zones by the early to mid afternoon period. It should then push south/east through the urban corridor around the late afternoon into the early evening before moving offshore by late evening. As for temperatures, Tuesday will feature mostly sunny skies in the morning with increasing clouds ahead of the thunderstorms in the afternoon. Forecast highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s across most of the area with tropical dew points remaining in the low to mid 70s. As a result, heat indicies are expected to range between 100-105 degrees across much of the area. For this reason, kept current heat headlines in place except added Morris County in New Jersey. The Advisory runs from 10 AM to 8 PM Tuesday. Convection should be mostly winding down by the overnight period Tuesday night as the cold front pushes southward before tending to stall over southern NJ into Delmarva. The front will also be quite weak and diffuse as far as there really being a temperature and dew point gradient across it. As a result, it will be another mild and muggy night.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The remnants of Chantal will be long gone, but the environment will not change much with plenty of humidity lingering across the Middle Atlantic region. This humidity will be acted upon by daytime heating and several shortwaves both Wed/Thu. In addition, a weak front lingering across the area will focus showers/tstms thru the period. We`ll have at least likely pops for all areas Thursday but just for Delmarva Wednesday. Chance pops will round out the other periods. Rainfall will be heavy at times with instances of flash flooding possible both days. While widespread severe weather is not likely, there could be strong gusty winds associated with downpours at times. Temperatures will be summer-like Wed with highs above normal. readings will top out in the upper 80s/low 90s most areas. Apparent temps will be some 5 to 7 degrees higher with all the humidity about. The highs for Thu will be closer to normal with upper 70s/low 80s for the N and w areas and mid to upper 80s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The period from this Friday through next Monday continues to look overall rather unsettled with summer-like precipitation, seasonable temperatures, and continuing high humidity. Precipitation will be showery with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms around most days. Models are not showing strongly synoptic cues to organize precip, mostly just subtle disturbances in the flow which are notorious for difficult timing/placement. We stayed close to the NBM with the forecast with POPs generally in the 30 to 50 percent range each day. Though, as alluded to above, it won`t be raining all the time as precip will be focused mainly around peak heating times. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR expected for much of the day with a period sub- VFR conditions likely late in the afternoon as scattered thunderstorms move into the region after 19Z. Southwest winds around 5-10 kt with gusts up to 15 kt possible. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Showers/storms may continue to bring sub VFR conditions at times into the early evening, mainly for the I-95 TAF sites and points south. Showers/storms should be mainly over by around 6z but then there may be sub VFR due to low stratus. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...VFR should generally prevail during the daytime periods with daily chances for thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Areas of fog and low clouds with restrictions possible at night.
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&& .MARINE...
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The Small Craft Advisory for seas from Manasquan Inlet to Cape May is in effect until 10 AM. Otherwise Tuesday and Tuesday night should feature mainly sub Small Craft Advisory level conditions. However showers/storms moving over the waters Tuesday evening could bring locally strong wind gusts over 34 knots along with locally higher seas. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Winds and seas are forecast to remain below advisory criteria. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Some areas of fog possible at times. Rip Currents... For Tuesday, winds shift southwesterly becoming more alongshore flow around 5-10 mph in the morning increasing to 10-15mph in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights should be in the 2-4 foot range depending on beach orientation with a primary SE swell increasing to 4 feet at a 6-8 second period. Given the tides will be around low tide in the morning with the increase in swell, will maintain a HIGH risk for rip currents for the easterly facing beaches and MODERATE elsewhere. Similar conditions are expected for Wednesday except we will confine the HIGH risk of rip currents to the beaches in Atlantic and Cape May Counties in NJ with a MODERATE risk elsewhere. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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A new Flood Watch for flash flooding has been issued for Tuesday and it runs from 2 PM until midnight. This is a result of widespread showers/storms expected to develop capable of producing rainfall rates of 2 inches per hour. If storms train over any one area for a period of time, this could result in localized rainfall totals of 3 to 4 inches. Main stem river flooding is not anticipated but flash flooding of smaller streams/creeks and areas of poor drainage will be possible. Please heed any road closures and law enforcement instructions in case of flooding.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-101>106. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106. NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ008>010-012>023-027. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for NJZ001-007>010-012>027. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NJZ024>026. DE...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001>003. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for DEZ001>004. MD...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019-020. Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for MDZ012-015-019-020. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ451>453.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Staarmann NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/OHara AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/MJL/OHara MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara HYDROLOGY...