Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 242000 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS ON FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME. RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FROM BEFORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN THING OF NOTE WILL BE THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSONS BAY WHICH CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT...MOSTLY CIRRUS. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT. TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT CIRRUS DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT. SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG. WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CANCELLED FOR THE NJ WATERS AT 3PM AS WELL AS DE BAY WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE TO KEEP THE DE ATLC WATERS PART GOING WHERE SEAS STILL A STRONG 5 FEET IN THE OUTER CW. SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED, BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS BEFORE STARTING NEW ONE. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNEDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5 FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12, 2015, WEATHER PERMITTING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ454- 455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...DRAG SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/ROBERTSON EQUIPMENT...DRAG

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