Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 191609 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1209 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure dominates our area weather through Friday. Low pressure is forecast to strengthen as it moves northeast off the mid Atlantic coast late Saturday, heading toward Nova Scotia Sunday. Unsettled weather may remain through the first part of next week with an upper low in the vicinity.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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1230 PM ESTF: Partly sunny this afternoon. There might be a couple of showers in NJ, e PA with a leftover cool pool aloft and modest low lvl moisture trying to initiate a low top convective release. Overall a good day. No significant changes to the fcst attm. Northwest wind with possible gusts near 15 kt, while the coastal southeast to southerly sea breezes edge northwestward in NJ and DE but probably not reaching I-95. Tonight...Clear with radiational cooling in the countryside as high pressure slides eastward overhead. Any daytime cumulus is forecast to dissipate this evening. Evening light nw winds west of I-95 and light south-southwest winds over SE NJ, DE and MD eshore, become nearly calm wind everywhere late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Potentially one of the nicest days we have had in a while. High pressure will be in firm control. Temps will be in the upper 70s and sw wind will be light. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An area of low pres nr the Glfmex will move newd to nr the NC/VA brdr by erly Sat. From there it will continue its newd trek off the fcst by Sat night. Rain will develop Sat mrng over srn sections and overspread the area durg the day. Rain cud be hvy at time Sat aftn and eve before tapering off Sat night. There is still some uncertainty wrt the track of the low. However, it appears the best rain chcs and best likelihood for hvy rain would be over srn and ern areas. The GFS continues to end the rain sooner the the ECMWF. However, ECMWF soln has some support from the NAM/WRF and have trended the fcst that way. Beyond Sat, there is lower than average confidence. An upr low/trof will be meandering over the region. There will likely be a break in the precip erly Sun before some shwrs move in later Sun. Then, after a drying trend in the mdls 24 hours ago, there is now a wetter trend for Mon and Tue. None of the days look to be a washout, just some showers. However, confidence is lower than average. With an upper low in place, some sct shwrs are to be expected due to the instability around, but the mdls just tend to overdo things in these situations. For now, will just keep low pops to avoid flip flopping and see if there is better mdl agreement with time. It does appear that by Wed, conds could improve despite what may or may not happen on Mon/Tue. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 5000 ft. Isolated afternoon showers possible, vcnty KTTN and KABE but chances too small to add to the TAF at this time. Light generally north or northwest wind backing to west or southwest later in the day except southeast to south sea breezes along the coasts including KACY and KMIV progressing northwestward slowly but probably not reaching I95. Tonight...VFR clear. Becoming a nearly calm wind Friday...VFR. Light wind. OUTLOOK... Fri night...VFR conds under high pres. High confidence Sat and Sat night...MVFR/IFR conditions. An area of low pres will move twd the area from the sern CONUS. It will reach the NC/VA brdr area then continue to track newd offshore. ra will develop durg the mrng hours from sw to ne. The best chcs for ra and heaviest ra are in srn and ern portions of the area. Ra should be tapering off by daybreak Sun. Moderate confidence. Sun and Mon...VFR/MVFR conditions. Possibly a break for a period early Sun, then potential for showers thereafter through the remainder of the forecast period. Low confidence.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines through Friday. Water temperatures are generally a little below normal. mid 50s. Light wind turns south to southeast this afternoon and may gust 15 to 20 kt for a time. Winds turn light northwest tonight and early Friday before sea breezing south to southeast again late in the day Friday. OUTLOOK... Fri night...No marine headlines are anticipated, with high pres over the area. Sat thru Sun...Low pres over the sern CONUS will move newd to near the NC/VA brdr then off the cst and then continue out to sea. This newd track will cause an increase in wind and subsequent increase in seas on sat into erly sun. SCA flags are anticipated before wind and seas drop below sca criteria later Sun. Mon...Conds remain unsettled due to an upper low nearby, however no marine headlines are anticipated attm. RIP CURRENTS: The Surf Zone forecast begins Friday morning and it will have a news headline on our homepage. It should also be accompanied by a probable debut of the Experimental National Beach Forecast page (if not Friday, then certainly next week). You will be able to click the beach located umbrella and comprehensive beach localized forecast information including beach specific forecasts, the surf zone forecast, ultraviolet index, rip current preparedness/safety information for beaches within our forecast area. DIX and DOX live radar will be posted on the right side as well as a Rip Current recognition video, and Lightning Safety tips. Comments will be welcome. We expect that we will need to adjust the density of the beaches offered. All this will be tied together in a social media announcement sometime late Friday morning. Ultimately for beach goers maximum enjoyment and safety...swimming within vision of lifeguards is a best practice. Rip currents come and go, tending to repeat only near jetties and piers, particularly the incident side of the swell. Rip currents may be a little stronger when the tide cycle is in the lower half of its cycle. Most rip current fatalities are male, under 40 and unguarded beaches. Water temperatures are currently a little below normal, mid 50s.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... DIX radar will be OM through at least 17 or 18z. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Nierenberg Near Term...Drag 1209 Short Term...Drag 1209 Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg 1209 Marine...Drag/Nierenberg 1209 Equipment...drag

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