Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 261105 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 705 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP TO OUR WEST TODAY AND BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... WHAT FEW LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN SOUTHERN DE SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY TODAY CLEARING THE WAY FOR A PLEASANT DAY ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST, THICKNESS WILL INCREASE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT FOR WINDS TO REMAIN 5 TO 10KT. OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING ELSE SUGGESTS PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS (DRIER AIR, CLEAR SKIES). THUS, HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONOS TO UPPER 50S FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST AND THE URBAN CORRIDOR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THE ONLY WRINKLE TO THIS WOULD BE ANY PATCHY FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING AND ONVERNIGHT SUNDAY/MONDAY MORNING. AS THICKNESSES RISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AS WELL, AND RISE BACK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN REACHING THE 80S AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN PUSH TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THEN MOVING NORTH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF, BUT THEY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HOW CLOSE THEY BRING THE LOW TO OUR COAST. THIS BEARS WATCHING AS IT COULD ONCE AGAIN HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN, WINDS, AND TIDAL PROBLEMS. PLENTY OF TIME TILL WE GET THERE, SO IT MAY STILL PASS OUT TO SEA. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED, RESULTING IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONCE EXCEPTION IS FG/BR THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SHELTERED VALLEYS INCLUDING KRDG. THIS FG/BR WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGH 14Z, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY BY MID MORNING. FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY-MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS, RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SITES, AS POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PASSES BY. && .MARINE... AS THE LOW LIFTS FURTHER AWAY, WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ON THE DE BAY, WINDS (AND SEAS) SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL FROM THE 6 TO 8 FT THAT THEY ARE NOW TO 4 TO 5 FT BY LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT EARLY TODAY, AND AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS LATER IN THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE APPROACHING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .RIP CURRENTS... EVEN THOUGH WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE BETTER TODAY, HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING COASTAL STORM WILL LEAD TO A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON RIP CURRENTS...

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