Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 232038 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 338 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE IN MISSOURI WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY YANKING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY. IT THEN SWEEPS A COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY THANKSGIVING. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE CAROLINAS NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A POTENT SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS INVOLVES A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE GULF COAST STATES, WHICH DRIVES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE NEAR THE EAST COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH ITS CENTER MAINLY EAST OF FLORIDA. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST TONIGHT IS A RESULT OF A POTENT 250 MB JET CARVING IT OUT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE HEIGHT FIELDS TIGHTEN QUITE A BIT ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL DRIVE AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN COMBINATION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA WILL DRIVE INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION REALLY RAMPS UP THIS EVENING, THE LOW-LEVEL DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A JUMP IN PW VALUES. THEREFORE, SOME OF THE RAIN WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE THE POPS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY FORECAST TO ARRIVE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE FLOW INCREASES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE INJECTION OF A WARM AIRMASS WORKS IN ACROSS THE AREA, WE SHOULD START TO MIX BETTER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS ALONG WITH WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR CWA. AS A RESULT, WE CONTINUED TO INDICATE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, SOME EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS MAY BE INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER DEVELOPING LATE ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE GOES ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE WAA PATTERN THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT INVERSION PRESENT DURING THE NIGHT EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. AS A RESULT, THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER SHOULD NOT ALLOW THE TRANSFER OF THE RATHER ROBUST WINDS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THERE IS A CHC SOME FOG DEVELOPS LATE ESPECIALLY AS THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR SURGES IN. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND WAS USED AND THESE WERE SET TO OCCUR THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A TEMPERATURE RISE WAS THEN INDICATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... RECORD WARMTH CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST, AND THIS WILL DRIVE A POTENT SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ITS EAST. THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL JET AND LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL FORCING IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, A DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN TAPERING TO SOME SHOWERS AND ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE POPS DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HANGING ON FOR A LITTLE WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. AFTER THAT, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT DRYING OCCURS ALOFT FIRST ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY SLOT, HOWEVER WITH OUR AREA BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND STILL STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE WE SHOULD MIX OUT MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW A MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING ALONG WITH THE DRYING. THEREFORE, THIS MAY LIMIT ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE DESPITE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT. THIS BRINGS US TO THE WARMTH AND WINDS. THE TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND +15C DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT AS WE LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, MIXING WILL DEEPEN. THIS WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF WE CLEAR OUT MORE, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FOR NOW, USED A MOS BLEND BUT DID ADJUST UP SOME ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 AREA ON SOUTH AND EAST. AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY, WHILE THE INTENSE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY, THE WIND FIELD AT 925 MB IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40-50 KNOT RANGE. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW BETTER MIXING BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND IF WE WARM THE BOUNDARY EVEN MORE THIS DEPTH WOULD INCREASE SOME. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH THAT WE DO NOT MIX UP FULLY TO THE STRONGEST WINDS, AND THEREFORE WE CARRY GUSTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE DID LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS WINDS WHICH ARE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THE SURFACE AND BOOSTED THE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... **RECORD WARMTH MONDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A WINTER STORM-EVENT VICINITY I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD WEDNESDAY** 500MB: THE STRONG SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES STORM LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT TROUGH IS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND CROSSES THE EAST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE COHERENCE IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAN PRESENTED 24 HOURS AGO. HEIGHTS RISE TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND BUT A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER HAVE SO FAR AVERAGED 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH YESTERDAY THE 10TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A BRIEF HIATUS FROM THE COLD IS AT HAND BUT EVEN SO...THE MONTH AS A WHOLE PROJECTS TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL. DID A QUICK EXTRAPOLATION OF MAX/MIN FOR THE REST OF THE MONTH BASED OUR OFFICE FORECAST AND WE ARE PROJECTING 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE MONTHLY AVG OF 47.6 DEGREES. CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (1201AM TUESDAY MORNING HIGHS COULD BE 60-63F PHL EASTWARD), SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY 6 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING WHEN THE PCPN BEGINS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AND NEXT SUNDAY IN MAY WARM MORE THAN WE HAVE FORECAST. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/23 NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/23 GFS MOS WAS NOT APPLIED WEDNESDAY...IT LOOKS TOO WARM BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES). THEREAFTER (THURSDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/23 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WAS USED STRAIGHT UP. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/23 ECMWF THROUGH THURSDAY TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/23 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. THE SREF ALSO HAS SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES FOR 1 AND 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY 7PM WEDNESDAY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD BUT COULD BE BIASED TOO COLD! THE 12Z/23 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 ARE USED AFTER 00Z/THURSDAY AS A CHECK AGAINST OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THE DAILIES... MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CHANCE OF A LOW TOP SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. OTHERWISE CLEARING AND MAYBE A BIT BREEZY (WEST WIND GUSTS 20 MPH FOR A TIME) AFTER THE EVENING CFP WHEN WE SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECAST INCREASES AROUND 03-06Z. STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING WHEN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S. GUIDANCE TEMPS: USED THE WARMER OF THE AVBL TEMP GUIDANCE AND BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 2M NAM TEMPS AT 00Z AND 03Z/25 (PRIOR TO CFP). TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY (FIRST CIRRUS FROM GULF COAST SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD VCNTY TEX/LA AND ALSO RRQ STRONG 250MB JET OF 200 KT NEAR L ONTARIO). WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25 MPH. TUESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WIND. SEASONABLE TEMPS. LIGHT RAIN SPREADS UP ONTO THE DELMARVA AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PHL BY 12Z TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OUR MODEL OF CHOICE LEANS HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF WITH GFS WPC AND SREF MIX. A COASTAL STORM DEEPENING AT A MB PER HOUR AS IT RACES NEWD EAST OF THE MID ATLC COAST. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY RRQ OF 200KT 250MB JET OVER THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. ONE QUARTER TO 1.25 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED...HEAVIEST PROBABLY IN NJ. SNOW MAP POSTED ALONG WITH BRIEFING PACKAGE TO GIVE OUR FIRST EFFORT AT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS. THINKING THAT THIS FORECAST CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR 3 INCHES EITHER SIDE OF WHAT YOU SEE. CONFIDENCE ON SNOW AMOUNTS REACHING THE POSTED VALUES IS HIGHEST FROM READING PA THROUGH THE POCONOS INTO FAR NW NJ. CONFIDENCE LESSENS SOUTHEASTWARD. NO MATTER...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW IMPACTING TRAVEL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY JUST WEST OF I-95. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF IS THE WARMEST MODEL WITH THE GFS COLDER BUT ALSO PROBABLY TOO FAR EAST. THE EC HAS A DEFINITE ABOVE FREEZING LAYER BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB. THE GFS NOT. SNOW/RAIN: I-95 CORRIDOR OR 30 MILES NORTHWEST LOOKS TO BE GENERAL DEMARCATION BETWEEN MOSTLY SNOW AND MOSTLY RAIN. DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL SELECTED AND THERE WILL BE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED...IT COULD BE RAIN-SNOW CHANGING TO ALL RAIN THEN ENDING AS SNOW FOR I95; MOSTLY SNOW FURTHER WEST AND NORTH THROUGH EASTERN PA AND NW NJ. ELEVATIONS WILL ACCUMULATE BEST WHERE ITS COLDER. TEMPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY FCST ARE THE 330 AM PHI FCST BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 00Z-12Z/23 ECMWF 2M TEMPS AND DID NOT USE THE 12Z/23 MEXMOS TEMPS WHICH LOOKED 3 TO 6 DEGREES TOO WARM. MAX TEMPS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING FORENOON BEFORE PCPN WET BULBS COLDER READINGS DURING THE AFTN. TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE THE 12Z/23 GFS MEXMOS VALUES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE WPC TEMPS. THOSE LOOKING AT THE MODELS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT GUIDANCE DOES NOT HANDLE SNOW COOLING THE SFC TEMPERATURES AND THE COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NOT TOO FAR WEST OF PHL WITH ONLY THE LOWEST 1000 FEET AIR TEMP STRUCTURE DETERMINING THE SURFACE PTYPE. THE LARGER ACCUMS FOR THIS EVENT ALONG I-95 MAY BE RESERVED FOR THE EVENING AS PCPN PROBABLY CHANGES TO ALL SNOW. SE OF I95...WHICH INCLUDES MOST OF MD E SHORE AND DELAWARE...MAINLY RAIN IS EXPECTED IT COULD END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR FLURRIES... ALL DEPENDENT ON BANDING TAIL (500 MB VORT MAX TRACK/STRENGTH). THURSDAY...A SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE...SFC COLD FRONT WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (WINDEX?) MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS NW OF I95. FOR NOW ONLY GRIDDED IN THE POCONOS. FRIDAY- SUNDAY...WPC GUIDANCE AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE CAROLINAS. LOWS TEMPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING MIGHT BE AROUND 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECAST NORTH OF I78 IF THERE IS SNOW COVER (10 TO 15F). && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 15,000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD EVENING. TONIGHT...VFR TO START, THEN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LOWER TO MVFR AND IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES. A PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THIS WILL ALSO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES, WITH EVEN SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST AND FROM NEAR KABE ON NORTHWARD. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EAST. THE AMOUNT OF GUSTINESS THAT OCCURS LATE CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, AND THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS INCLUDED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. MONDAY...MVFR/IFR /LOCAL LIFR/ CEILINGS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING, THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THOUGH THAT SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER LONGER ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND NORTH OF KTTN AND KABE. RAIN DEPARTS EARLY, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THE CORE OF LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY, THEREFORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE MORNING. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST 20-25 KT MONDAY NIGHT SUBSEQUENT TO A CFP THAT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SPRINKLE. WEST WINDS SHOULD GUST 25 KT ON TUESDAY THEN DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THEY TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS SCENARIO. WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN COAST (KACY/KMIV), RAIN SNOW KTTN KPNE KTPHL AND KILG AND MOSTLY SNOW KABE AND KRDG. IN ADDITION, EXPECT PERSISTENT NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR GENERALLY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS 12-25 KT FROM WEST TO EAST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AS SNOW MOST TAF SITES AT NIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY NOT AT KMIV/KACY. SIGNIFICANT PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE KRDG/KABE ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THANKSGIVING...CONDITIONS SLOWLY RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KT. FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR. && .MARINE... A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR WEST LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY ROBUST WIND FIELD. THE 925 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50-70 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEN DECREASE TO ABOUT 40-50 KNOTS ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT BETTER MIXING OCCURS FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVES LATE AND DURING MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS PRESENT WHICH WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL OUR ZONES /LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY/ AND CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS WE GO THROUGH MONDAY, THE BEST MIXING SHOULD SHIFT NEARSHORE AND OVER LAND. THEREFORE, WE DID NOT EXTEND THE GALE WARNING ATTM. THE SEAS WILL BUILD QUITE A BIT DURING THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, ALTHOUGH JUST HOW MUCH WIND ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE WILL INFLUENCE THE SEAS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT...SW WIND SHIFTING TO WEST WITH THE CFP. SCA LIKELY. TUESDAY...SCA EXPECTED DURING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON WESTERLY FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY...STRONG NORTHEAST SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST SCA WITH A POSSIBLE GALE. SEAS FORECAST ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY BE 2 TO 4 FEET TOO LOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THANKSGIVING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT ATLANTIC SEAS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 5 FT TIL AT NIGHT. FRIDAY...POSSIBLE SCA COLD AIR ADVECTION WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. && .CLIMATE... FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. RECORD HIGHS 11/24: ACY: 72 SET IN 1999 PHL: 71 SET IN 1979 ILG: 73 SET IN 1979 ABE: 69 SET IN 1931 TTN: 71 SET IN 1979 GED: 75 SET IN 1992 RDG: 69 SET IN 1979 MPO: 64 SET IN 1931 WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO THE REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL SNOWFALL DATA. BEST CHANCE OF COMING CLOSE TO A "DAILY" RECORD AS OF THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOONS COLLABORATION APPEARS TO BE KABE. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS: NOVEMBER 26TH: NOVEMBER 27TH: PERIOD OF RECORD: ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955 1.2 INCHES 1978 1874 PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898 6.9 INCHES 1949,1938 1872 ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950 4.5 INCHES 1978 1894 ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925 7.0 INCHES 1938 1922 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG 338 NEAR TERM...GORSE 338 SHORT TERM...GORSE 338 LONG TERM...DRAG 338 AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 338 MARINE...GORSE 338 CLIMATE...KLINE 338

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