Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
FXUS61 KPHI 220105
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
905 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016
A front across the region this evening will move to the east
overnight. An area of high pressure will prevail across the area
wednesday. Low pressure and another series of fronts will affect the
area late Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will
return for Friday and persist through the weekend. A cold front will
approach from the west early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Threat for severe storms looks like it will continue for another
few hours across Delmarva and far southern NJ. Thus, have extended
the severe thunderstorm watch through 11 PM.
A clear to partly cloudy sky is expected for tonight after the last
of the convection passes off the coast later. There may be some
patchy fog in areas that received rain today.
Minimum temperatures should be in the 50s in our far northern
counties and in the 60s elsewhere with a light wind.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A mid level short wave trough is expected to pass over New York
State on Wednesday morning, reaching New England in the afternoon.
It may bring some clouds to our far northern counties, otherwise it
should have little impact on our region. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will likely build into our forecast area from the west.
We are anticipating dry weather conditions for Wednesday with highs
mostly in the 80s. A west wind around 10 to 15 mph may gust to 20 or
25 mph at times.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Wed night thru Thu night...This looks to be the more active part of
the long term. Another low pressure system will emerge from the
plains stares and head across the Great Lakes. The low will then
move across PA/NY on Wed. The abundance of warm/humid air on the
south of the low and the associated fronts will produce another
round of showers/tstms beginning across the wen areas late wed night
and then spreading across the entire area Thu. Severe weather is a
strong possibility with the SPC Day 3 outlook now showing 1/2 the
area (Srn) in an outlook. The weather will end from w to e through
the night Thu. A briefing package has been already sent to highlight
this weather and the HWO will also have mention of it. Temperatures
this period mostly near normal.
Fri thru Sun...A mostly dry period with high pressure returning to
the area. If the system is a bit slower to clear, there may be some
lingering showers during the morning across the ern areas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Fri, rising to above
normal by Sun.
Sun night thru Tue...Plenty of uncertainty, but the ridge across
the area will be waning and a h5 trough will be progressing
towards the area. A cold front should cross the area early next
week. We stuck with the chc pops that were in there, since it
matches well with nearby offices. Temperatures will be above
normal with mid/upper 80s for highs Mon and Tue.
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
are two exceptions. First, isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the next few hours could affect KPNE, KTTN, and KMIV. Also, MVFR
visibility restrictions around 08 to 12Z will be possible
especially for locations that had alot of rain today.
The showers and thunderstorms that were affecting KMIV and KACY at
mid afternoon should be off the coast by 2200Z. Mainly VFR
conditions are anticipated after that time, again with the potential
of some MVFR visibility restrictions late tonight and early on
A west to northwest wind at 5 to 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. A west wind at 10 to 15 knots
is forecast to develop for Wednesday. The wind may gust to 20 or 25
knots at that time.
Wed night thru thu night...Showers and Tstms may bring lower
cigs/vsbys thru the period. Svr tstms possible from the Delaware
valley and areas south.
Fri thru Sun...VFR conditions expected.
-- Changed Discussion --Wave heights have been building across the southern coastal
waters. Thus, the small craft advisory for hazardous seas
continues. Once waves subside tomorrow morning, expect winds and
seas to remain below SCA criteria through the remainder of the
wed night thru thu night...Mostly sub-sca conditions. Some low end
SCA seas across the srn waters Wed night and Thu. Tstms with
local higher winds and seas expected.
Fri thru Sun...Mostly sub-sca conditions with fair weather.
If the swell can subside sufficiently by tomorrow morning (wave
watch guidance indicates it will), and winds shift to westerly
early enough (at this time the cold front remains well west of the
coast), then the rip current risk should be low. However, if the
swells continue, the moderate risk of rip currents may continue
-- End Changed Discussion --
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ451>455.