Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 290140 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE. WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES, DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .RIP CURRENTS... A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO

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