Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190743 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 343 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM EASTERN CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY THICK CIRRUS OVERHEAD. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS IN CENTRAL NEW YORK OVERNIGHT, BUT NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, PARTIAL CLEARING OF THE CIRRUS WILL TAKE PLACE. THERE REMAINS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO OUR SOUTH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH, SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN POP-FREE ACROSS THE SOUTH AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TODAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FILTERING THROUGH THE REMAINING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOS GUIDE, AND ECMWF GRIDS WAS USED FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY WINDY WITH OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHILE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOS GUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD TOTAL AROUND ONE-HALF INCH, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY UNTIL THE AXIS OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. THEN DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY...BELOW NORMAL AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, THEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND A WEAKENING, DRY COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. WINDS COULD GUST AT TIMES IN THE UPPER TEENS. ANY WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH LATER IN THE DAY AND BECOME MORE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUN THRU MON...MOSTLY VFR, BUT WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTING UP TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST, SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WE`LL NEED TO WATCH FOR ANY STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD LOWER CEILINGS. MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS REMAIN AROUND 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING. WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6 AM AS IS SINCE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE, AND EXTEND LATER IF NEEDED. ONCE THIS ADVISORY ENDS, CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, A RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE OCEAN AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS, AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5-6 FEET ONCE AGAIN. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS. && .FIRE WEATHER... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH, BUT MOST ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS. WITH THE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND MUCH OF NEW JERSEY, WE WILL ISSUE A SPS FOR ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. FURTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOWER WINDS ARE EXPECTED, SO NO SPS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LOW RH VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY, BUT WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...MIKETTA AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA FIRE WEATHER...ROBERTSON

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