Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 140709 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 309 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure to our south will drift off the Southeast coast through today. Low pressure will pass north of our area tonight through Friday. A pair of cold fronts will pass through Sunday and Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will continue drifting off the southeast coast through Thursday, with a sunny, dry day, along with light west to southwest flow continuing both at the surface and aloft. This will result in additional warm air advection, and while winds will remain light mainly less than 10 mph on Thursday, enough mixing and compressional warming under the building ridge aloft will result in even warmer temperatures Thursday. Expect it will be the warmest day of the week, with highs easily into the low to mid 70s. The Poconos and the shore will once again be cooler, with another light seabreeze developing in the afternoon. A weak disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA. Accumulation looks to be light though, with less than a tenth of an inch expected. Increasing clouds will lead to a mild night with lows expected in the low to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs in the upper 60s to low to mid 70s once again, but chances for rainfall will arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold front sweeps through the region. Guidance has maintained widespread accumulations of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, but some locally heavier amounts will be possible wherever a heavier shower sets up. As we get in range of the CAM guidance, there is some agreement that the heaviest showers will set up around the Delmarva peninsula and southern New Jersey. In these locations, up to a half inch of rain is possible. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either in these spots as model soundings show some elevated instability and modest lapse rates. Behind the front, temperatures fall into the 40s Friday night as conditions dry out. Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a dry day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Another cold front approaches on Saturday Night, with some showers possible late north of I-78. Most, if not all, of the night will be dry and precipitation chances are only around 15-20% in these spots. Otherwise, quiet and tranquil weather for the rest of the region with increasing clouds and temperatures in the low to mid 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal temperatures for most of next week. A cold front arrives to bring another chance for rain on Sunday. Still a bit of model spread in terms of the track of the low, with the latest guidance pulling further north. Therefore, as of now, the best chances for any showers (around 25-35%) on Sunday will be generally north of I-78. The cold air will lag behind the front, with highs on Sunday expected to get into the mid to upper 50s/low 60s. Upper 40s are anticipated within the Pocono Plateau. Cooler, more seasonable air begins to filter in on Sunday Night, with lows getting back near seasonal norms. Expecting a spread of 30s across the area. A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front, mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, temperatures fall down below climo with highs on Monday through Wednesday generally in the 40s as high pressure builds into the region. Brisk northwest flow in the wake of the secondary front could result in some breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Early this morning...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. West winds becoming more southwest as the day goes on, and south to southeast later in the afternoon along the shore, up to ACY, but mainly less than 10 kt. High confidence. Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Southerly winds around 5-10 knots. A light rain shower possible (25-35% chance), mainly northwest of the I-95 terminals. A 40kt low-level jet develops around 2kft overnight. Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on LLWS. Outlook... Friday...Sub-VFR conditions likely with periods of rain moving through. West/northwest winds around 10-15 kt. Low confidence. Friday Night...Sub-VFR conditions likely with rain and possibly a thunderstorm (mainly for KACY/KMIV) for the first half of the night. North/northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Low confidence. Saturday through Saturday Night...VFR. West/northwest winds in the morning will become south/southwesterly for the afternoon and overnight hours. Wind speeds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence. Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/southwest winds around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt at night. Low confidence. Monday...Primarily VFR though slight chance (15%) of a rain or snow shower at KABE/KRDG. Westerly winds 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt. Low confidence.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Fair weather across all marine zones Thursday with no marine headlines expected. South to southwest winds gradually ramp up Thursday night, increasing to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Occasional gusts up to 25 kts possible, but should remain isolated. Outlook... Friday...No marine headlines anticipated. Southwest winds around 10- 20 kt and seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday Night...No marine headlines anticipated though rain/thunderstorms possible (50-70%) for some of the night. Winds becoming northerly around 10-15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. Winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 kt by the late morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Monday...SCA conditions possible (50%) as west/northwest winds will increase to 15-20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the Delaware River, with Burlington reaching Advisory thresholds by Thursday morning. Will go ahead and combine the counties along the Burlington River for the high tide cycle Thursday morning. The Delaware River at Philadelphia will come close to minor thresholds, but may not reach Advisory thresholds. For Delaware Bay, forecast tide levels now look to be below minor thresholds, so will cancel the Coastal Flood Advisory that was in effect for the counties along Delaware Bay. Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible for the Atlantic coast, but widespread coastal flooding not expected so will not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the New Jersey oceanfront. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ015- 017>019. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/Dodd/Hoeflich NEAR TERM...MJL SHORT TERM...AKL/Hoeflich LONG TERM...AKL/Hoeflich AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MPS

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.