Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 191830 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 230 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP. THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION. FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 KT RANGE OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.