Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201351 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 951 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region today bringing beautiful weather. A low pressure system developing over the southeastern states will move toward the North Carolina/Virginia border by early Saturday and then offshore. It will then move northeastward off the coast. Surface high pressure will then build across the region early in the week, but unsettled weather will remain due to an upper level low across the Mid- Atlantic. Improving weather with warmer temperatures is expected by midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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After looking at current temps, the 00z and 06z Bufkit soundings, and upper air soundings adjacent to the CWA, I trimmed afternoon highs by a degree a two. Great looking day ahead with lots of sun, little wind, comfortable humidities, and at or slightly above normal temps. Enjoy! Previous discussion... High pressure extended from the eastern Great Lakes to the Middle Atlantic region early this morning. The air mass will drift to the east and off the coast today. The high is expected to bring a mostly sunny sky for today. A light northerly wind is forecast to become southerly by late in the day. The sea and bay breeze fronts should work their way well inland with little resistance from the synoptic flow. Maximum temperatures are expected to favor the middle and upper 70s in our forecast area. Readings will be a bit cooler than that in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and northwestern New Jersey and along the immediate coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... The high will continue to move out to sea tonight. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure is forecast to move up the Ohio River Valley with another low progressing northeastward along the coast of the Carolinas. As the areas of low pressure approach our region, we are anticipating and increase in high, then mid level clouds tonight. Rain is forecast to begin moving into parts of southeastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva toward daybreak. The wind should become light and variable for much of tonight. However, it is expected to begin settling into the east on the coastal plain late tonight with speeds increasing to 5 to 10 mph. The thickening and lowering cloud cover should keep temperatures from falling much below the upper 40s and lower 50s in our region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pres will move from near the NC/VA brdr offshore then newd on Sat. This will bring widespread rain to the area, especially for srn and ern portions. The rain will begin to taper off sat eve but will linger into sun mrng for at least portions of the area. Rain cud be hvy at times from the aftn into erly eve. The guid still differs on Sun with the GFS and NAM/WRF being drier than the ECMWF. Regardless, there is likely to be a t least a dry pd in the mrng, if not longer. Any precip in the aftn would be in the form of instability shwrs with the upr low overhead. There is still considerable uncertainty for the early portion of next week. With high pres at the sfc and an upr low, it is a bit of an interesting fcst. It is, of course, difficult to fcst completely dry conds under an upr low. At the same time the mdls have been going back and forth and tend to overdo things on the wrn side of an upr low. The day runs have been dry or drier and then the night runs come in wetter. For now, will keep at least some low pops for Mon and Tue, but am not making any major changes to what has been fcst the last few days. We finally kick the upper low out on Wed, which looks like it could be the nicest day of the week under sfc high pres and ridging aloft. Then, low pres moves acrs the plains into ern Canada and its assocd approaches from the w on Thu. This will increase precip chcs for the latter half of Thu. Temps will finally become more seasonal and be above nrml by the end of the pd, which is something we have not been able to say much in May. Sat will be the coolest day of the pd under ely flow and abundant cloud cover and rain. Then there will be a warming trend with temps into the 80s! by the end of the pd. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR conditions are expected for today and tonight. We are anticipating a mostly sunny sky for today followed by an increase in high and mid level clouds tonight. Ceilings should remain above 8000 feet through daybreak on Saturday even as an area of rain approaches from the southwest at that time. A light northerly wind this morning is forecast to become southerly this afternoon. The New Jersey sea breeze front is expected to reach KACY early in the afternoon before making its way to the lower Delaware Valley in the evening. The bay breeze will likely impact KILG with a 160 or 170 degree wind around 8 to 12 knots for much of the afternoon and evening. The wind should become light and variable at our TAF sites for much of tonight before settling into the east at KPHL and points to the east and south toward morning. OUTLOOK... Sat...widespread ra expected acrs the region. VFR conds erly will rapidly deteriorate to mvfr and ifr. Rain may be heavy at times durg the aftn and eve, especially from KPHL and to the south and east. high confidence. Sun through Mon...Pds of shra with mvfr. Low to moderate confidence Tue...Mainly VFR conditions expected. A few shra may move through the region. Low confidence of shra potential. && .MARINE... High pressure is forecast to pass off the coast today before moving farther out to sea tonight. Low pressure should begin to approach from the Carolinas late tonight. A northerly wind this morning is expected to become southeast to south during the afternoon and evening. The wind should back toward the east late tonight. Wind speeds are forecast to be less than 15 knots through the period. Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range with wave heights on Delaware Bay remaining 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Sat through Sun...low pressure will move newd from nr the NC/VA brdr up the cst. seas and wind will steadily increase the southeast US coast and pass to the south and east of the area. As the low makes it way towards the area, seas and winds will start to increase. Seas should easily reach the 7 to 8 ft range by Sat night and will remain elevated will build and begin to exceed 5 feet by Sat aftn. Seas will remain elevated through Sun. East winds ahead of the low will tun to the northeast by Saturday afternoon, increasing through this time. Wind gusts will increase and gale force gusts remain possible, especially across our southern ocean zones Sat aftn and night. sca will be needed everywhere, and there the gale watch will remain in place over the srn waters for now. mdl guid still differs on gale potential. however it is also psbl that the gale watch cud be needed further n. Mon thru Tue...No marine headlines are expected. RIP CURRENTS: The Surf Zone Forecast begins for the season this morning. Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions we are anticipating a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware Beaches. The Surf Zone Forecast will have a news headline on our homepage. It should also be accompanied by a probable debut of the Experimental National Beach Forecast page (if not Friday afternoon, then certainly early next week). You will be able to click the beach located umbrella and comprehensive beach localized forecast information including beach specific forecasts, the surf zone forecast, ultraviolet index, rip current preparedness/safety information for beaches within our forecast area. DIX and DOX live radar will be posted on the right side as well as a Rip Current recognition video, and Lightning Safety tips. Comments on the page will be welcome. We expect that we will need to adjust the density of the beaches offered. All this will be tied together in a social media announcement sometime late this morning. Ultimately for beach goers maximum enjoyment and safety...swimming within vision of lifeguards is a best practice. Rip currents come and go, tending to repeat only near jetties and piers, particularly the incident side of the swell. Rip currents may be a little stronger when the tide cycle is in the lower half of its cycle. Most rip current fatalities are male, under 40 and unguarded beaches. Water temperatures are currently a little below normal, mid 50s. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ANZ453>455. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Iovino/Kruzdlo Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg Marine...Iovino/Nierenberg

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