Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 311741 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF, GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY. GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. && .MARINE... NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3. WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE. && .RIP CURRENTS... A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...JOHNSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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