Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241034 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 634 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS IT DOES SO, WEAK ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE HIGHS YESTERDAY, DESPITE LESS CLOUD COVER TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE REGION, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. WITH CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, THINK IT IS UNLIKELY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT NOSES IN FROM SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE ARE NOT ANY STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST WITH THE FRONT, AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS DRY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT WAVE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING OCCURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, THEN PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK, SO FOR NOW WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY EFFECTS FROM THE STORM EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS ON THE COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CURRENT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD DISSIPATE NO LATER THAN 15Z, AFTER WHICH EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. AFTER 06Z, THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR REDEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN THROUGH THE DAY, BR DEVELOPMENT SEEMS UNLIKELY EVEN WITH WEAK ON SHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z, AND GENERALLY STAY NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY... MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW 6 FEET, AND BASED ON OBS NEAR THE COAST, ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. TOWARDS SUNRISE, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL, FIRST FOR THE NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS. SEAS IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS MAY NOT FALL BELOW 5 FT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE SEAS DO DROP BELOW 5 FT, CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THURSDAY...INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE TOPICAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. && .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST (STAYING WELL OFF SHORE), LONGER PERIOD SWELLS COULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK LATER THIS WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450- 451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON

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