Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241902 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 302 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will continue to move east through Friday. Low pressure will move across Canada and cause a weak cold front to cross our area Thursday night and Friday. Another high pressure system will build in for the weekend. Low pressure will move through Canada early next week and another front may affect our weather next Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure continues to push offshore tonight. Meanwhile, a weak cold front over the Midwest will move into the Great Lakes. Mainly warm and quiet for the local area tonight, but there may be some convective debris from the storms upstream passing overhead from time to time during the overnight hours. With S to SW flow persisting through the overnight hours, low level humidity levels will continue to creep up as surface dewpoints climb into the low 60s. Temperatures tonight will range from 5 to 10 degrees warmer than they have been the last 2 nights. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Low pressure over Canada will continue to drag a cold front through the OH Valley and towards the local region on Thursday. Surface high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to push offshore, but upper level ridging will hold firm over the area with the approach of that front. The front almost appears to wash out as it moves into the region late in the afternoon. Best forcing remains to the N and W. The upper ridging should keep precip from developing across most of the area, but will carry slight chance POPs, and cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or 2 into eastern PA. Southerly flow continues to usher a warmer and more humid airmass into the region on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly good weather for the longer range part of the forecast. A cold front will cross the area Thursday night and Friday, but the front is weakening and the showers and few tstms that accompany it will not be anything out of the ordinary for the summer. High pressure will bring nice weather for the weekend. Another low pressure system and cold front will move through for early next week. Again, more sct showers and tstms will affect our weather then. Temperatures for the long range will mostly be above normal with readings mostly around 5 degrees above normal. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the urban areas and Delmarva. Highs across the Nrn NJ and srn Poconos areas will be in the 80s. The warmest and most uncomfortable conditions will be on Friday. The dew points and temperatures on Friday may bring heat index values into the upper 90s across the urban areas. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Rest of afternoon...VFR. Generally W to SW flow at 5-10 KT with S to SE winds at KACY and KILG due to afternoon sea/bay breezes. Tonight...VFR. Southerly winds becoming light and variable at most terminals during the evening. Local MVFR visibility is possible toward daybreak Thursday due to light fog, mainly at RDG, ABE and MIV. Thursday...VFR. Isolated SHRA possible which could temporarily lower conditions. S winds increase to 5-10 KT. Outlook... Thu Night thru Monday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. Sct tstms Thu night and Fri may bring short period of lower cigs/vsbys. && .MARINE... High pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast continues to move offshore tonight through Thursday. A cold front approaches from the west on Thursday. S winds will range from 5-10 KT tonight, then will increase to 10-15 KT during the day Thursday. Cannot rule out a few gusts to 25 KT late Thursday for northern NJ ocean zones, but will hold off on issuing a SCA at this time. Outlook... Sub-sca conditions are expected for the outlook period. Close to SCA gusts may occur on the northern NJ waters Thu night and early fri. Sct tstms Thu night/Fri and again early next week. RIP CURRENTS...For today, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is low. However, conditions may reach moderate this afternoon and evening especially if the waves in the surf zone increase to 2-3 feet combined with the south-southeast winds increasing faster. For Thursday...The rip current risk may increase to moderate for the NJ shore in the afternoon due to increasing southerly flow. Update will be provided with the evening SRF issuance. This coming Sun-Tue...model ensemble guidance on every successive cycle continues to send 2-4 ft long period (15 to 17 second) east southeast swell into our waters from the central Atlantic. If that occurs, swimming and wading dangers will increase markedly. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...MPS/O`Hara Marine...MPS/O`Hara

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