Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241211 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 811 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HIGH WILL RETREAT SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE REGION TODAY. AS IT DOES SO, WEAK ON SHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THE ON SHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE, HOWEVER THEY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST APPROACHING THE REGION, RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. WITH CONTINUED ON SHORE FLOW THERE IS A SMALL RISK THAT PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER GIVEN THE DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, THINK IT IS UNLIKELY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS RIDGING ALOFT NOSES IN FROM SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE ARE NOT ANY STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST WITH THE FRONT, AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY IS DRY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT WAVE THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING OCCURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THIS. THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT NEAR THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, THEN PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS, AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK, SO FOR NOW WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY EFFECTS FROM THE STORM EXCEPT AN INCREASE IN SWELLS AND RIP CURRENTS ON THE COAST. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS AT KRDG AND KABE DISSIPATES EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING 5-10 KNOTS, THEN TURNING EAST OR LOCALLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD EVENING. TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH ANY CLOUDS THINNING. AFTER 06Z, THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER GIVEN THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD BE FILTERING IN OUR CONFIDENCE IN ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LOW. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOG TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING. THURSDAY... MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT. A LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER WILL KEEP SEAS UP AROUND 5 FEET ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OCEAN ZONES DUE TO A BETTER FETCH. FARTHER NORTH, IT APPEARS THAT THE SEAS ARE BELOW 5 FEET ALTHOUGH THERE IS RATHER LIMITED BUOY DATA /SEAS AT BUOY 44017 HAVE BEEN BELOW 5 FEET FOR SEVERAL HOURS/. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE, WE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR TWO NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINING ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 22Z TODAY. ONCE SEAS DO DROP BELOW 5 FEET, CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. THURSDAY...INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELLS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE TOPICAL SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
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&& .RIP CURRENTS... THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST (STAYING WELL OFF SHORE), LONGER PERIOD SWELLS COULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK LATER THIS WEEK. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ452>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON MARINE...GORSE/ROBERTSON RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON

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