Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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066 FXUS61 KPHI 291948 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 348 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature through Friday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday evening and then moving offshore through Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from the west for the weekend. A warm front will move into the area on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Remainder of this afternoon...partly to mostly sunny and seasonably warm with a few wind gusts to near 20 mph. Weak sea breezes in progress and we can see it on the DIX 88D making steady inland progress, as of this writing, across Ocean and Burlington counties but less to the north and south. In fact, there is some sign the wind has shifted to an offshore component parts of the Monmouth County coast as of 340 pm. DOX sea breeze is almost stationary or heading seaward as of this 345 PM writing. Tonight...mostly clear or clear and pleasant for early summer with seasonable low temperatures (maybe slightly below normal, especially the countryside where radiational cooling (calm-clear) should be ideal. If fog forms toward dawn, it should be less dense with less areal coverage than that of earlier this Wednesday morning. For now its modeled mainly in NJ where higher dewpoints remain and used the UPS crossover tool. FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Sunny to start then sct cu form during the afternoon...possibly broken for a time from PHL south and west. Cirrus becomes noticeable to the south and west of PHL during the afternoon. Light north to northwest wind early in the day turns southerly during the afternoon with a definite southeast sea breeze component along the coasts. The sea breeze probably develops around Noon. Seasonably warm. FCST Basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/29 gfs/nam mos. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mdls differ with the amt of moisture/precip Thu night. The GFS is more robust, bringing at least some precip to the region. The ECMWF confines precip, mainly to srn areas, while the NAM is basically dry. For now, will keep some low pops and see what happens. WPC is going twd the drier soln, so it would seem that any precip chcs would be on the lower side and the GFS is overdone. A cdfnt approaches from the w on Fri and precip chcs increase in the aftn along with tstm probs. Moisture increase and dewpts creep back into the mid 60s. CAPE is decent and LIs are more than adequate on Fri. There is virtually no wind shear, however. But we are in that time of year where it doesn`t take much for a thunderstorm. The cdfnt moves thru Fri night and high pres moves in for Sat into Sun bringing genly dry wx. A wmfnt, extending ewd from low pres in the plains cud bring precip to the Delmarva and srn areas by Sun night. The high then re-exerts itself for Mon, but low precip chcs still exist over the extreme S. By Tue, the aforementioned low approaches the region and there is considerable diffs between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS is stronger and wetter durg this timeframe. Also important is the posn of a wmfnt, which the EC would have over the Delmarva while the GFS is further N. Obviously, the Tue fcst is low confidence attm. Temps look to be nr nrml. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Confidence on all periods listed in this short term section of the Area Forecast Discussion is above average. Rest of today...VFR sct- bkn aoa 5000 ft. Wind mostly west to northwest with any gust speeds aob 18 kt. Tonight...VFR clear. Nearly calm or light north to northwest wind. There is a very small chance for light fog to develop vcnty KMIV and KACY. For now think that this is unlikely, but the risk will increase if the sea breeze does in fact move farther west by this evening. Thursday...VFR clear to start, then sct clouds aoa 5000 ft during the afternoon may become broken from PHL south and west later in the afternoon. Light northwest to north wind becomes south (southeast along the coasts including KACY) during the afternoon with a few gusts 15 kt. Outlook... Thu night through Fri...VFR conds genly expected Thu night, though a few shra can not be ruled out that cud reduce cigs/vsbys. The better chc of MVFR/IFR is on Fri aftn in tsra as cdfnt approaches. Moderate confidence. Sat thru Mon...Mainly VFR Conds expected. A few shra/tsra extreme s on Mon. High confidence. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through Thursday. Any gusts for the most part under 18 kt. RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents this afternoon. Local beaches in Ocean County (LBI) may experience more frequent and slightly stronger rip currents than beaches north and south of Ocean County NJ. Water temperatures were warming rapidly along the mid Atlantic coast and are several degrees above normal..ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Outlook for Thursday...LOW risk but it may border on moderate during the afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops. Am expecting a near 3 ft ese swell of about 8 seconds. The difference of these two days is mainly via the wind direction and speed. Local Ocean County beaches may experience more frequent or stronger rip currents. Outlook... Thu night through Mon...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible late Thursday or Friday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. At this time...the outlook for the formation of dangerous rip currents will probably vary daily from low to moderate through July 4th. && .CLIMATE... Barring a highly unexpected rain event prior to 1 AM Friday, Allentown will have recorded its 10th driest June on record (1.87 inches). Records date back to 1922. Normal for the entire month of June at Allentown is 4.31 inches. The record lowest for June is still 0.34 inches, set in 1949. Otherwise, what you see today on monthly departures is pretty close to what June will end up both for temperature departures and rainfall deficits. The rainfall deficits received helpful reduction the past two days, and hopefully we receive additional assistance from mother nature on Friday. A review of the past 7 days of rainfall still shows below normal over most of northern NJ and ne PA except a narrow east-west swath between I80 and I78. June temperature departures continues 1-2 degrees above normal ABE RDG TTN PHL, near normal ACY ILG and a bit below normal at GED and MPO. Lance prepared the following for your use: The following table lists the number of days w/temperatures at or above 90 degrees so far for the meteorological summer and spring seasons compared to normal. SITE Actual # Normal # Departure ---- --------- --------- --------- ACY 5 4.5 + 0.5 PHL 8 6.4 + 1.6 ILG 3 4.4 - 1.4 ABE 6 3.0 + 3.0 In terms of the June 2016 monthly climate (as of 6/28) at our big four long term sites, temperatures have been above normal and precipitation below normal, except Wilmington, with slightly above average precip. The following table lists: the normal average vs. June 2016 average temperature and the resultant departure from normal. SITE TEMPERATURE (F) PRECIPITATION (IN) ---- ------------------ --------------------- ACY 70.6 VS. 70.8 +0.2 2.90 VS 2.31 -0.59 PHL 73.0 VS. 74.0 +1.0 3.19 VS 1.87 -1.32 ILG 72.0 VS. 72.1 +0.1 3.62 VS 3.69 +0.06 ABE 68.9 VS. 71.1 +2.2 4.01 VS 1.87 -2.14 note: the above data represent the month through June 28. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Drag 348 Short Term...Drag Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Drag/Nierenberg Marine...Drag/Nierenberg Climate...Franck/Drag is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.