Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 140516 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 116 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to our south will drift off the Southeast coast through Thursday. Low pressure will pass north of our area Thursday night and Friday. A pair of cold fronts will pass through Sunday and Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Overall quiet forecast remains on track tonight. Lows will range from the low 40s N/W to the upper 40s for Delmarva and metro Philadelphia. Winds will be light and variable. A bit of patchy fog might develop locally around northern portions of the NJ shore, but given how dry the airmass is to start tonight, we do not expect widespread fog. Surface high pressure will continue drifting off the southeast coast through Thursday, with a sunny, dry day, along with light west/southwest flow continuing both at the surface and aloft. This will result in additional warm air advection, and while winds will remain light mainly less than 10 mph on Thursday, enough mixing and compressional warming under the building ridge aloft will result in even warmer temperatures Thursday. Expect it will be the warmest day of the week, with highs easily into the low to mid 70s. The Poconos and the shore will once again be cooler, with another light seabreeze developing in the afternoon.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA. Accumulation looks to be light though, with less than a tenth of an inch expected. Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs in the upper 60s to low 70s once again, but chances for rainfall will arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold front sweeps through the region. Guidance has maintained widespread accumulations of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, but some locally heavier amounts will be possible wherever a heavier shower sets up. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either with limited instability and modest lapse rates, particularly across the southern half of the region. Behind the front, temperatures fall into the 40s Friday night as conditions dry out. Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a dry day with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Another cold front arrives to bring another chance for rain on Sunday. Still a bit of model spread in terms of the track of the low, with the latest guidance pulling further north. Therefore, as of now, the best chances for any showers (around 25-35%) on Sunday will be across the northern half of the region. Cooler, but more seasonable air begins to filter in across the region Sunday night with highs on Monday mainly in the upper 40s to low 50s. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front will arrive later on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front on Monday, mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, temperatures fall down below climo with highs on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 40s as high pressure builds into the region. && .AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Early this morning...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Thursday...VFR with mostly clear skies. West winds becoming more southwest as the day goes on, and south to southeast later in the afternoon along the shore, up to ACY, but mainly less than 10 kt. High confidence. Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Southerly winds around 5-10 knots. A light rain shower possible (25-35% chance), mainly northwest of the I-95 terminals. A 40kt low-level jet develops around 2kft overnight. Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on LLWS. Outlook... Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (45- 55%) for showers or possibly a thunderstorm. 10-15 knot winds start southwesterly then become northwesterly Friday night behind a front. Low confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots during the day become southwesterly overnight. Moderate confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chances (20-30%) for light rain showers. Southwest winds 10-15 knots becoming west-northwesterly late in the day. Low confidence. Monday...Mainly VFR. Chances (15-25%) for light rain showers. West-northwest winds around 15 knots. Low confidence.
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&& .MARINE... No marine headlines expected for all waters through Thursday and beyond. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt through tonight, picking up a little to 10-12 kt and tending southerly on Thursday. Seas on the ocean will continue to be only 1 to 2 feet. Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated for most of the period as winds are expected to be mainly 10-15 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Periods of gusts of 20-25 knots are possible though, particularly Thursday night and then beginning Saturday night into Sunday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the Delaware River, with Burlington reaching Advisory thresholds by Thursday morning. Will go ahead and combine the counties along the Burlington River for the high tide cycle Thursday morning. The Delaware River at Philadelphia will come close to minor thresholds, but may not reach Advisory thresholds. For Delaware Bay, forecast tide levels now look to be below minor thresholds, so will cancel the Coastal Flood Advisory that was in effect for the counties along Delaware Bay. Spotty minor coastal flooding is possible for the Atlantic coast, but widespread coastal flooding not expected so will not issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for the New Jersey oceanfront. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ070- 071-106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ015- 017>019. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...AKL/Dodd NEAR TERM...Dodd/MJL SHORT TERM...AKL LONG TERM...AKL AVIATION...AKL/Dodd/MJL MARINE...AKL/Dodd TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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