Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 250101 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 901 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH ITS NORTHERN EDGE NOSING NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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930 PM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE REMAINS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS, BUT GIVEN CEILINGS ABOVE 20000 FT AGL, AND THE FACT THAT CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR AFTER 06Z, DO NOT THINK THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT LOWS FOR TONIGHT, SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT SOMETIME. RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... SATURDAY/...SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY FOR ALL DURING THE MORNING BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS PROBABLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD AFTER 18Z. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS AT LEAST 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY AVERAGING AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL! RAISED THE 12Z/24 50 50 BLENDED NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BY 2 DEGREES BECAUSE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE 12Z/24 ECMWF 2M TEMP FCST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SWINGING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CANADA, THROUGH THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE MODELS DO NOT CREATE MUCH QPF OR POP ACROSS OUR AREA. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE SPRINKLES THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FROM BEFORE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND NOSES ITS NORTHERN PORTION ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE MAIN THING OF NOTE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE WINDS ON SUNDAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35 MPH. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER IN HOW THE MODELS RESOLVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON BAY WHICH CARVES OUT AN EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS IS NO SURPRISE AS THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN TRANSITION FROM A NEGATIVE NAO/POSITIVE PNA TO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN NAO /WE`LL CALL IT NEUTRAL FOR NOW AND NEGATIVE PNA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR FURTHER OUT TO SEA, SO AGREE WITH THE HPC SOLUTION OF TAKING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION IN THE FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY LEADING TO MAX TEMPS WELL ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE 70S. NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO EXPECTING A DRY DAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE, SO SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH ON THU AND LOW PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY CLOUDS OF NOTE ARE DIMINISHING HIGH (GREATER THAN 20000 FT AGL) CIRRUS CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z, AND FEW TO SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS BY MID DAY TOMORROW. WINDS, CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BY AROUND 18Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIND SPEEDS TO BE NEARLY AS HIGH AS THEY WERE TODAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KACY, WHERE WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME BREEZY LATE IN THE PERIOD (AFTER 21Z) FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE SUNSET. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TUE. MVFR POSSIBLE WED IN -SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
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&& .MARINE...
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WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND SUNDAY MORNING ON THE DELAWARE BAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE GUSTS UP TO 30KT. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH OR BE JUST ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS ONCE THE WINDS INCREASE. SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD ON WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS UPWARDS TO 5 FEET. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430- 431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...FRANCK/ROBERTSON AVIATION...FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON

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