Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 120832 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 332 AM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Surface high pressure over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic lifts to the north and east and moves offshore later today. Weak low pressure passes through the Mid-Atlantic late tonight through Monday. High pressure returns to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Weak low pressure passes through the region Wednesday night and Thursday. A strong cold front passes through the region early next weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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High pressure will remain across the area today. Dry weather with mostly sunny skies are expected. Clouds will be mostly Ci/Cs clouds thru the day. Temperatures will be a little warmer than Saturday, but still 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Winds will be light and variable much of the day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
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The area of high pressure will be offshore and a weak upper trough is expected to move through the region later tonight. There will still plenty of dry air across the area, so the models may be painting an overly generous qpf fields for the area. I have reduced the pops for the area, considering how dry it is across the area. A chc for showers will be in the grids for the dawn period Monday. Low temperatures will be milder than the past few nights,with upper 20s north and low/mid 30s over the Lehigh Valley and most of NJ. Lows over Delmarva and metro Philadelphia will dip into the upper 30s. If any showers arrive towards dawn, they could be a few snow showers, again rather low confid in this occurring.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Weak low pressure will move into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning as H5 trough and several strong shortwaves dig into the East Coast. The bulk of the precip will lie over southern NJ and the Delmarva. Thermal profiles may be cold enough to support snow along and north of I-78 Monday morning, but with minimal QPF expected, not expecting much in the way of accumulating snow. For central and southern NJ, the Delmarva, and into the urban portions of southeast PA, temperatures will be warm enough for all rain. Low pressure moves out to sea Monday afternoon, and precip tapers off from west to east through the afternoon. Behind the departing low, high pressure builds into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday night and Tuesday, and then that high builds east and moves offshore on Wednesday. Temperatures moderate during this time with high temperatures gradually warming into the 50s. Models have weak low pressure passing well north of the region Wednesday night and Thursday, and this drags a warm front through the region Wednesday night, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon. High pressure passes through the region on Friday and moves offshore Friday night. A stronger cold front will gear up to impact the region Friday night and Saturday. There are some timing, strength, and placement issues with regards to how this system will develop. The GFS is faster and a bit more progressive than the CMC-GDPS and the ECMWF and has the system offshore by Saturday afternoon, whereas the CMC-GDPS and ECMWF do not bring it through until closer to Saturday afternoon. It is possible for a few rumbles of thunder when the area is in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, but it is too soon to determine.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR. High pressure across the region today will move to the east. Light and variable winds. Mostly SCT-BKN Ci clouds today. Low confid in some high-end MVFR CIGS at KACY this morning. Tonight...VFR. SCT-BKN Ci/Cs clouds across the area this evening, then some mid level clouds after midnight. Light and variable winds. OUTLOOK... Monday...Sub-VFR conditions possible in showers, especially south of KPHL. There is a chance for snow showers or a rain/snow mix at KABE/KRDG, but snow accumulations are not expected. Light N to NE winds. Monday night through Wednesday: Generally VFR with light north winds becoming easterly on Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday: Sub-VFR conditions possible in scattered showers. Light S winds Wednesday night become NW 10-15 KT with gusts up to 20 KT Thursday afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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Rather quiet weather expected on the waters today and tonight. High pressure will be slowly moving across the area so winds will be rather light and variable. A couple showers possible towards dawn, but confid in occurrence is low attm. OUTLOOK... Monday: A chance of showers, but conditions are expected to be sub-advisory level. Monday night and Tuesday: Marginal advisory conditions possible, though the current forecast is generally somewhat below criteria. Tuesday night and Wednesday: Onshore flow begins to develop on Wednesday, with an increase in seas is possible during the period. There is a chance of advisory conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Wednesday night and Thursday: Continued near-advisory level seas with winds possibly nearing thresholds after a weak system moves through, switching winds from south Wednesday night to northwest Thursday afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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It is possible for a few record low temperatures to be met this morning. The daily record low temperatures for November 12th are listed below. Daily Record Low Site Temp for 11/12 (F) Year Set ---- ------------------ -------- ACY 20 2001 PHL 26 1976 ILG 23 1957 ABE 21 1926 TTN 24 2001 GED 18 1957 RDG 22 1973 MPO 15 1976
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...MPS Aviation...MPS/O`Hara Marine...MPS/O`Hara Climate...MPS

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