Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 232038 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 438 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL MOVE EAST AND BRING A THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... BLUSTRY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MORE LIKE MID MARCH THAN MID APRIL...AS TEMPERATURES WERE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. RADAR SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS NJ AND EASTERN PA...WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE FAR WESTERN ZONES. THIS IS ALL THE RESULT OF AN AREA OF LOW SURFACE/UPPER PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OH VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TO KEEP WINDS UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL ABATE BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST AND DELWARE BAY. RE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT IN ALL AREAS. BUT DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL STILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO AOB FREEZING IN WESTERN AREAS...PHILADELPHI METRO REGION WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT HAVE OPTED TO ADDED WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AS WELL AS ALL OF BERKS COUNTY INTO A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT. FOR AREA EAST OF I95 CORRIDOR...HAVE DROPPED FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE IF ANY FROST ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. FOR NOW...THE COMBINATION TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S COUPLED WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT SUGGEST LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FROST EXPECTED. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A VERY CHILLY START...WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TEMPERTAURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYWHERE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL SLIDE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE MODLES SUGGEST ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION BY LATE SATURDAY...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD BRING A THREAT OF SHOWERS TO REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY COOL CONDITIONS. THE NEXT THREAT OF RAIN IS FOR MID WEEK BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST ON THUR. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BKN-OVC NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KT WILL DIMINISH AFTER 22Z. SKIES WILL CLEAR AFTER 05Z. ON FRIDAY...AFTER 12Z VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT BETWEEN 13-19Z. && .MARINE... GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-101>106. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ060>062-101- 103-105. NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>022-027. FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431- 450>455. && $$ SMZ

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