Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 271333 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 933 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FEW CHANGES FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTH, THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID DAY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COULD TEMPER HIGHS TODAY, BUT AT THIS POINT, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER HIGHS YET. PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AROUND 630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS TO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND THE LATE START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD FAVOR THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. AGAIN, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT OUT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY AT TIMES. SOLID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING IS FORECAST FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND KILG, KMIV AND KACY. A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE. FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR. SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE. SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. && .MARINE... THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM ON OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. FOR OUR WATERS FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD WE HAVE KEPT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT NOON FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR 6 FT. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062. NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001- 007>010. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450- 451. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...ROBERTSON AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON

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