Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 081423 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1022 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE JUST TO THE SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST AND INFLUENCE THE WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FIRST...WE ARE CONTINUING OPS BUT AN UPGRADE THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN DETECTING A LINKAGE PROBLEM TO ANYTHING THAT RUNS WITH MARINE RELATED ZONES. THAT INCLUDES THIS AFD PRODUCT...THE CWF... THE MWW... THE HWO. WE ARE DOING THIS AFD PRODUCT IN AWIPS INSTEAD OF GFE UNTIL THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. WE DO NOT INTEND TO GO INTO BACKUP OPS BUT MAY NEED ASSISTANCE FROM STERLING-LWX MID AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT TODAY! AT LEAST 94F AT PHL...POSSIBLY 96. IF WE SEE ANY CONVECTION PRIOR TO 23Z IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND NON SEVERE. ATTM I THINK IT TOO DRY FOR THE 576 THICKNESS. NO HEAT HAZARD SINCE WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY PIT AND IAD SOUNDINGS THE SFC DEW POINT DROPS AS THE TEMP HEATS TO 90 PLUS. PLEASE FOLLOW SWOMCD`S AND SWODY1 FOR THE SPC TAKE ON OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME NO MAJOR CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION, SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. INSTABILITY SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 40KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR. AS SUCH, THE SEVERE THREAT, PRIMARILY FOR STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, POSSIBLY CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 2 INCHES (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM WHICH SHOWS EVEN HIGHER PWAT VALUES, BUT AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THIS WAS THE WET OUTLIER). HOWEVER, FAST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD MEAN THAT ANY FLOODING THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS LINGERING IN THE REGION AS THE COLD FRONT DRIFTS EAST, COULD SEE FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT, IN AREAS WHERE STORMS CLEAR OUT BY LATE EVENING. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD, A CDFNT WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PRECIP CHCS WITH THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHCS WILL BE OVER SRN AND ERN AREAS ON WED. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES OVER THE OH VLY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. SOME DIURNAL PRECIP CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON THU, MAINLY S AND E AS THE FRONT IS NEARBY BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. FRI LOOKS DRY AND AGAIN A DIURNAL SHOWER OR TSTM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ON SAT. BY SUN, S TO SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT. LOW PRES IN SERN CAN ON SUN WILL MOVE EWD AND ITS ATTEND CDFNT WILL TRIGGER SOME SHWRS ANT TSRA AHEAD OF IT ON SUN. THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF PRECIP AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER SUN NIGHT INTO MON. FOR NOW, WILL JUST CARRY CHC POPS AS THERE ARE SOME USUAL TIMING DIFFS WITH THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 00Z...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT. SLIGHT CH OF A BRIEF SHOWER OR TSTM KPHL NORTHWARD. SW WIND GUST 20-25 KT BY MID AND LATE AFTN AT ALL TAF SITES. TONIGHT...IN THE 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME A BAND OF TSTMS OR SHORT LINES OF IFR CONDITIONS TSTMS SHOULD BOW EWD ACROSS E PA INTO W NJ WITH W SFC GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT FROM KPHL AND KPNE NORTHWARD THROUGH KABE AND KRDG. LESS CERTAIN OF ANY TSTMS AT KILG AND KTTN THOUGH SOME SORT OF WEST WIND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED. AFTER 04Z...CONVECTION SHOULD EITHER REACH THE COAST OR DIE OUT. GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISHING. NON TSTM GRADIENT GUSTY SSW WIND TO 20 KT AFTER 00Z BECOMES LIGHT W BY MORNING. A LITTLE 3-5MI FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING. OUTLOOK... WED...MAINLY VFR. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNDER ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP IN THE AFTN/EVE. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE FURTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY EVENING, THIS TIME FAVORING KMIV AND KACY. MDT CONFIDENCE. THU THRU FRI...GENERALLY VFR, A SMALL RISK OF TSRA ON THU, WITH MVFR PSBL. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SAT...MVFR/IFR MAY BE PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE ON MVFR/IFR OTHERWISE HIGH CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. AT THIS TIME, DO NOT EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DE BAY AS THE WIND DIRECTION (SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY) IS UNFAVORABLE FOR A BIG IMPACT TO THE BAY. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND UNDER ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS ABOVE SMW CRITERIA WILL BE POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... WED...SCA WILL CONTINUE, MAINLY FOR SEAS IN THE MRNG AND PSBLY INTO THE AFTN, BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE. THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT FROM THE S NJ COAST SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DE WATERS. THU THRU SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. && .RIP CURRENTS... THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE IS MODERATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...DRAG 1022 SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1022 MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON

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