Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 270354 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1154 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure is anchored over the western Atlantic through this weekend while low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas moves northwest toward South Carolina. A cold front will organize over the Great Lakes early next week passing through our region by the middle of the week. The low pressure system near the southeast United States coast may linger there most of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Overnight...variable cloudiness. Isolated sprinkles in southeast Pennsylvania may develop northeast toward northern NJ during the night? Quite mild. Light south wind. Friday...Very warm and more humid with a potential for D2 of 90F temps at KABE/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KACY/KGED/KESN. Depends on how much sunshine. Best chance for 90F temps is near and north of I-78 possibly extending down to KPHL? Airmass is as warm as ydy with higher dewpoints. More cloud cover may make it more difficult to maximize heat potential. South to southwest wind with afternoon gusts 15 mph. Convection: Possible..more details at 330 am or sooner. PWAT about 1.7" for a 571 1000-5000 thickness. From the 930 pm Thursday discussion below... A pool of instability is anticipated to form over central Pennsylvania with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in that area. The convection should drift eastward into our forecast area during the afternoon. We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly for our counties in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. PoPs were lowered a bit with the 930 PM ESTF update as it appears that models, in particular the NAM/GFS, are overdoing the low-level moisture/instability and thus convective potential. There also doesn`t appear to be much organized lift present across the area until perhaps a shortwave trough approaches from the west toward sunset.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Fair and mild. Much more detail at 330 am.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Saturday through Sunday Night: High pressure will be firmly in place over the region. Subsistence from the high pressure will prevent normal pop-up afternoon thunderstorm formation both days except in the higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. A gradual tick upward with humidity is expected, making it feel even more like summer. High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees warmer than met/mav with overnight lows climbing due to the increased humidity. Memorial Day: A low pressure system is likely to be located just off the Southeast United States coastline. With a broad mid-level ridge just offshore moisture is likely to be transported northward along the eastern seaboard. Some uncertainty is present with this low potentially become tropical. The National Hurricane Center currently has a 70% chance of this forming into a sub-tropical or tropical system between today and early next week. While any tropical impacts would be well south of the region, the moisture interaction with lift along an approaching cold frontal boundary. This will lead to a good chance of showers and thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. PW values are also modeled to approach 2 inches along with a modeled long-skinny CAPE profile both also suggesting the prospects for heavy downpours with thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be kept down as well due to cloud cover and thunderstorms. Monday night through Tuesday night: The cold frontal boundary will likely continue to be close to the region and serve as a focal point for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially moving through by Tuesday. With the more scattered coverage of the showers and storms, daytime temperatures will rebound a bit on Tuesday after a muggy start. Wednesday and Thursday: Another low pressure system and cold front will move into the Central Plains with our region in the warm sector with high pressure to the northeast. However, mid level temperatures look cooler than with the warm-up this weekend. Forecast close to WPC guidance. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Remainder of overnight...VFR with isolated showers possible vcnty KRDG/KABE. Light south to southwest wind. Friday...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest wind gusting around 15 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage of any convection. Friday night...VFR. Light south to southwest wind. OUTLOOK... Saturday through Sunday: Mainly VFR, southerly winds 5-10 knots with gusts around 15 knots Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Isolated thunderstorms possible for KABE. Sunday night through Monday night: MVFR/IFR ceilings possible. Periods of showers and thunderstorms, the highest chance of thunderstorms is on Monday. Southerly winds up to 15 knots. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, winds under 15 knots. An isolated thunderstorm is possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines through Friday night. Southerly flow persists...at times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas generally 1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights will probably be used for the 330mam Friday forecast. OUTLOOK... No marine headlines anticipated.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Gaines/Robertson Near Term...Drag 1153 Short Term...Drag/Iovino 1153 Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Drag/Gaines 1153 Marine...Drag/Gaines 1153

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