Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 142300 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 700 PM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will control our weather tonight through saturday night and then move offshore Sunday. A weak front will approach from the north Sunday night, bur then move back towards New England on Monday. More high pressure will build across the area for the middle of next week. A disturbance will arrive for next Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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Surface high pressure will remain over the northeastern states tonight. Sky will remain mostly clear overnight and winds have already dropped off across the region. The light wind and the mainly clear sky will allow for ideal radiating conditions at most locations. We are anticipating temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30s to the northwest of the Interstate 95 corridor and in the interior of southern New Jersey. Minimum readings should range from the upper 30s to the middle 40s elsewhere in our forecast area. The frost advisory continues across much of SE PA (with the exception of the urban corridor) and much of NJ (with the exception of Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth counties and coastal locations). Frost is expected mainly in the eastern parts of Camden, Gloucester and Salem, and in the northwestern part of Cape May County.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The area of high pressure will begin to drift off the northeast coast on Saturday. We are anticipating another sunny day with a light east to south wind developing. Maximum temperatures should be right about normal for October 15th, generally in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sat. night and Sunday...High pressure will be moving offshore this period with a gradual increase in clouds Sun. After a `near- normal` chilly night Sat...temperatures will moderate back to above normal Sunday. Highs will be mostly in the upper 60s north and low 70s south. Sunday night thru Monday...A continuation of fair weather across most areas. A weak front will drop down from the north and will bring some clouds and a small chc for a few showers mostly across the srn Poconos and nrn NJ. The model trends over the past few days have been to weaken and dry the feature, so we have followed by reducing the pops and restricting them further N/W with this fcst. Monday night thru Wed night...Dry and much above normal temperatures as high pressure regains control of the weather. Temperatures will be some 15-20 degrees above normal for mid-October. Highs will be close to records so we have included them in the climate section below. The recent trends are to further increase temps, so future fcsts may show higher readings. Thu thru Fri...The pattern changes out in the western part of the country early this week finally catch up with us and the result will be a wetter and closer to normal temperature pattern by the end of the week. We have increased pops for this package with mostly chc range pops attm. Enjoy the summer-like weather while it lasts! && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period under a mostly clear sky, only few to scattered high cirrus clouds are expected through the TAF period. Winds will remain light and variable through at least 15Z. A light east to south wind is forecast to develop after 15Z. OUTLOOK... Sat night and Sun...VFR. Sun night and Mon...VFR with a few showers possible N/W. Mon night thru Wed...VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure will continue to influence the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Saturday. The small craft advisory has been cancelled as winds and seas have dropped below sca criteria. A diminishing northeast wind is expected for tonight. The wind is anticipated to veer toward the east and southeast on Saturday around 5 to 10 knots. The long period swells associated with distant Hurricane Nicole will continue to diminish gradually during tonight and Saturday. OUTLOOK... Sub-SCA conditions and fair weather expected through the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... While astronomical tides will run high through the upcoming weekend, there are no strong weather systems to lead us to think that any tidal flooding will occur. && .CLIMATE... Near record warmth is possible Tuesday and Wednesday the 18th and the 19th. Here are a list of the record highs for both days. OCT 18th OCT 19th ACY-83,1908 80,1991 PHL-85,1908 80,1947 ILG-81,1938 81,1963 ABE-81,1963 82,1963 TTN-82,1908 83,1963 GED-81,1996 81,1953 RDG-85,1908 84,1963 MPO-84,1908 80,1963 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062- 101-103-105. NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ008>010- 016>023-027. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Iovino/Johnson Short Term...Iovino Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Iovino/Johnson/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/Johnson/O`Hara Tides/Coastal Flooding... Climate... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.