Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230424 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1224 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move south across the area Friday night and Saturday morning. High pressure will build across the northeast over the weekend into early next week. A warm front is expected to lift north of the area around Tuesday, while a cold front remains to our west.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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Early this morning...clear and cool most of the area with spotty countryside fog. Exception: low clouds will hug the southeast NJ coast and spread into southern DE. coolest temps will be in the upper 40s to around 50 in nw NJ where radiational cooling occurs, per the continued 2m temp fcst of the GFS (I am really liking this GFS 2m temp data for radiational cooling mins in the countryside and then adding 3-4F to the max 2M temp at 18z for max temps on partly to mostly sunny non marine influenced days). Today... sunny and very warm with max temps 88 or 89 in PHL and mid-upper 80s elsewhere. winds become light west. Thats 10-15F above normal but below record. Forecast basis is a 50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos except as noted which in this case...raising guidance max temps based on GFS2m temp of 85 at 18z and an expected 17C at 850MB. Wont be surprised at isolated 90F this afternoon at the typically hotter I-95 spots.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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Cold frontal passage from north to south. have my doubts about CFP passage prior to 6 AM fm KESN to KGED. low or mid clouds and a briefly gusty ne wind to 20 mph accompany the CFP. its possible the max temp for the calendar day of Sept 24 will occur at 1 am in a few spots around PHL (74-75F). small chance of a shower or isolated tstms near and north of I-78 this evening. will check mesoscale models in the decision making. pwat 1.4-1.5 inches this evening dries to .5 inches I80 north by morning so that mins kmpo to kfwn may again be near 50. Forecast basis:50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos guidance.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure will build across the northeast over the weekend and into Monday of next week. This will bring cooler weather to the area, along with dry conditions. There are differences between the GFS and ECMWF as we move into Tuesday, as the GFS lifts a warm front through the area, while the ECMWF moves a cold front across the area. We decided to stay closer to WPC and continuity. This would keep the cold front to our west through the end of the week, before it possibly reaches the area Thursday into Friday. There will remain a slight chance of showers each day from Tuesday through the end of the week, although it will only be 20 percent at this time.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Early this morning...cigs 700-1500 ft vcnty KACY and KMIV with VFR conditions elsewhere. calm or light north wind. Today....VFR few cirrus with the wind becoming west or southwest this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt. Tonight...VFR to start then sct-bkn aoa 2500 ft spreads southward with a wind shift to ne and gusty to 20 kt for an hour or subsequent to a cfp. There is a slight chance of rain showers with the front at KABE. OUTLOOK... Saturday-Tuesday...VFR conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines today. We may need an sca for ne wind gusts 25 kt and seas building to 5 ft late tonight NJ coast. OUTLOOK... Saturday...Conditions may approach Small Craft Advisory levels. Winds may gust around 20 to 25 knots at times behind a cold frontal passage into Saturday morning. Seas should build to 4-5 feet during the day Saturday. Saturday night-Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through. Winds may gust around 20 knots at times. RIP CURRENTS... The probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents today is low. Weekend...There is a chance of a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents on at least one of the weekend days, as a 3 to 4 foot east-southeast swell from Tropical Cyclone Karl arrives along with a gusty northeast wind. Karl`s lack of development may result in a lower swell which would help reduce the potential risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Will update the previous morning climate JAS discussion with new reality and forecast data. No major changes anticipated.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson 1224A Near Term...Drag/Johnson/Nierenberg 1224A Short Term...Drag/Nierenberg 1224A Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Nierenberg/Robertson 1224A Marine...Drag/Johnson/Nierenberg/Robertson 1224A Climate...1224A

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