Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190823 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 323 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south through the region tonight. High pressure will build over the Mid Atlantic through Tuesday before shifting off shore. A warm front is expected early Wednesday, followed by another warm front on Friday. As a surface low lifts across the Great Lakes Region, a cold front will sweep through our region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A cold front will move across the area this morning. Mid level moisture and clouds have increased ahead of the approaching boundary. Meanwhile, a weak short wave/vorticity impulse will slide across the southern areas this morning. Isolated showers and sprinkles have occurred to our southwest overnight, and it is possible that a few isolated shower or sprinkles could make their way across our area this morning. These sprinkles will affect our Delmarva counties, as well as extreme southeast Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey if they make it into our area. Once the morning short wave moves east of the area, clouds are expected to clear out by the afternoon and a nice day will occur. A secondary front or surface trough is expected to move across the area later this afternoon. However, afternoon temperatures for most places are still expected to be 15-20 degrees above normal and approaching records once again. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... Quiet weather is expected overnight as a northerly flow will develop across the area as high pressure will be centered to our north across Canada. A backdoor cold front will approach the area overnight and toward daybreak, so clouds may begin to increase some across the northern third of the area overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In the wake of the back door cold front, temperatures tomorrow and Tuesday will be about 10 to 15 degrees lower than today. By the later half of Tuesday, the surface high will be shifting off shore as a pre frontal trough approaches from the west. This will set up southerly low level return flow by Tuesday afternoon. As a result, expect an increasing chance for rain showers across the region. The next warm front is expected by late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Stayed close to a blend of guidance at this time, but as confidence increases for an early morning warm front arrival time, may need to go above guidance for Wednesday highs as guidance continues to underestimate warm air advection events. For Thursday and Friday additional warm air advection is expected, with Thursday possibly being the warmest day of the week (assuming that the previously mentioned warm front doesn`t slide back south into our region as a cold front early Thursday). However, warming on Friday could be tempered by overcast conditions and an area of rain expanding into our region thanks to a closed surface low lifting over the Great Lakes Region. The associated cold front with this low should sweep through the region early Saturday, though there is some uncertainty with the timing. As it does so, it should bring an abrupt end to the rain. Even with the forecast strong cold air advection, temperatures over the weekend may still be slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across the area. Southwest winds early will become west to northwest this morning through this afternoon. Wilds will become gusty in the mid to upper teens during the afternoon. The gusts will drop off later this afternoon, but a light breeze will continue through tonight. Outlook... Monday...VFR conditions expected. Tuesday...Ceilings could lower to MVFR with rain showers continuing into Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday...Mostly VFR conditions are expected. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected across the waters today and tonight. However, wind gusts may approach Small Craft Advisory levels late tonight into Monday morning north of Little Egg, so we will continue to monitor in case an upgrade is needed. Outlook... Monday...winds may gust near or above 20 kt at times, but should stay just below 25 kt. Tuesday through Thursday...winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. && .CLIMATE... Allentown tied their record high for the date yesterday at 67 degrees (originally set in 2011). Here are the record highs for today: PHL 68-1948 ILG 67-1997 ABE 63-1997 TTN 68-1948 GED 74-1976 ACY 73-1961 RDG 67-1997 MPO 58-1981 At this time, the forecast at PHL, ILG, and ABE is at or within 2 degrees of the records. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Johnson Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Johnson Aviation...Johnson/Robertson Marine...Johnson/Robertson Climate...

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