Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 272341 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 741 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 23Z. A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES, AS OF 2330Z, ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES AND THIS TRAILS DOWN TO THE DELMARVA. THIS APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON AN EARLIER GUST FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND IT MAY WEAKEN SOME AS MORE STABLE AIR IS LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE MAY THEN BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS A WEAK IMPULSE MAY ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. THIS INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WHICH CAUSED A MUCH FASTER TEMPERATURE DROP IN MANY AREAS. DUE TO THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S FOR THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD. ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED. LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING. THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP. BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF). THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS, WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS. TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THIS ONLY MOSTLY NEAR KMIV AND KACY. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING. SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING GUSTINESS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KACY. THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING, THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE. FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN TAFS. FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE. SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON TSRA. SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE. && .MARINE... THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY. OUTLOOK... THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP. && .RIP CURRENTS... BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY SOUTH WIND. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE SHORT TERM...KLINE LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG RIP CURRENTS...

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