Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 170851 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 351 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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TWO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A WEAK LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AND A SECOND STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY IN TENNESSEE...IS DESTINED TO ZIP UP TO QUEBEC THIS EVENING. THIS LATTER LOW YANKS A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN A WARM FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR REGION SUNDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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LOW PRES OVER THE SERN CONUS WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY. ITS ASSOCD WMFNT EXTENDED NEWD TO ABOUT THE OH VLY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY. SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AND A LLJ (UPWARDS OF 60-70 KT) WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION, FIRST AT MID-LEVELS THEN AT LOWER LEVELS. ANY WINTRY PRECIP LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MAINLY CARBON, MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES, AND WILL TURN OVER TO PLAIN RAIN IN THESE AREAS LATER THIS MRNG AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN. BASED ON LATEST DATA, IT APPEARS ANY SNOW/SLEET THREAT HAS ENDED AND IT WOULD BE A FRZ RAIN THREAT UNTIL TEMPS WARM. LOWER ELEVS LOOK TO REMAIN ABV FREEZING. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR ICY SPOTS. ELSEWHERE, JUST PLAIN RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE MID-ATLC STATES BY EVE BRINGING A CDFNT THRU THE AREA AS WELL. WITH THE INCREASING SWLY FLOW, TEMPS WILL REBOUND IN MANY AREAS LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALG AND S OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WHERE HIGHS SHUD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER, WITH COPIOUS RAIN, IT WILL HARDLY BE A NICE DAY. WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO OR ABV 60 IN SERN SECTIONS AND THE CDFNT MOVG THRU DURG THE LATE AFTN WITH DECENT FORCING AND SHEAR, THERE IS A CHC OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
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CONDS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT. THE CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM W TO E AND PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END BEHIND IT DURG THE ERLY EVE. BY LATE EVE THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE SW AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY AND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THIS WEEK WITH A LARGE PORTION OF IT PASSING THROUGH OUR AREA AND NORTHEASTWARD LATE TUESDAY...WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES THURSDAY AND PAST NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. CONSIDERABLE RIDGING (WARMING ALOFT) EVOLVES ALONG THE EAST COAST NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW TROUGH FORMS IN THE WESTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES 10 TO 15 COLDER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY...15 TO 18 BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY...AROUND 10 BELOW NORMAL THU-SAT THEN WARMING SUNDAY. WE MAY UPDATE THIS PGH AROUND 5AM. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/17 NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THEN THE 00Z/17 GFS MOS IS APPLIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE 0604Z/17 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 00Z/17 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 00Z/17 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/16 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 00Z/17 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY...BLUSTERY AND VERY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES RISING JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM 7 AM VALUES...THE HIGH FOR THE DAY PROBABLY AT MIDNIGHT THIS COMING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WIND TO 35 MPH...EVEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE EASTERN PA AND NJ. RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD CORE TROUGH AXIS MOVES BY BUT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED FOR SNOW SHOWER PRODUCTION DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS KEEPING MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. CONTINUING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DUE TO THE LARGE LAPSE RATES. TUESDAY NIGHT...STILL CONCERNED ABOUT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING SLIGHTLY SEWD INTO THE POCONOS BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE...OTHERWISE THE QUESTION...HOW COLD DOES IT GET... NEAR RECORD APPEARS PROBABLE. THERE STILL WILL BE A GUSTY WEST WIND DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND THE WIND CHILL IN THE POCONOS IS FORECAST BE AS LOW AS 5 BELOW ZERO BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. FROM THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DISCUSSION: TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF JANUARY THAN NOVEMBER. SIX OF OUR EIGHT PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES WERE EXPECTED TO GET WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THEIR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE CONTINUED THE CLIMATE SECTION WITH THE INFORMATION TOWARD THE BOTTOM OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION. WE STILL NEED TO UPDATE OUR NEW FCST LOWS IN THIS SECTION. WEDNESDAY...STILL VERY COLD BUT WITH LESS WIND. INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS IN WAA AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THURSDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT WILL BE AFFECTING OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING TOWARD OUR REGION IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON SUNDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON RAIN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THEY SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FIRST PART OF THE FCST IS QUITE POOR, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TONIGHT. LOW PRES OVER THE SERN STATES WILL MOVE NEWD TWD THE MID-ATLC AND CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. A WMFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION EARLY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A CDFNT LATER THIS AFTN. BEHIND THE CDFNT CONDS WILL IMPROVE THRU ERLY EVE, WITH A RETURN TO VFR BY LATE EVE. HOWEVER, CONDS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR ACRS THE AREA EARLY THIS AM AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IFR EVERYWHERE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND ASSOCD RAIN IMPACT THE REGION. EXPECT POOR FLYING WX FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES. A STRONG LLJ AND INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT DURG THE DAY WILL CREATE LLWS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN, WHICH CUD BE QUITE STRONG IN SPOTS WITH LIGHT WIND AT THE SFC. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND OF 30 TO 38 KT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH CIRRUS OR AC ARRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WEST WIND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY...VFR WITH A W WIND 20 TO 25 KT. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A WNW WIND 20 TO 25 KT.
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&& .MARINE...
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A GALE WRNG REMAINS IN EFFECT BEGINNING NOON TODAY AND CONTINUING THRU THE SHORT TERM PD. LOW PRES FROM THE SW WILL MOVE ACRS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT INCREASING SWLY FLOW BEHIND ITS ASSOCD WARM FRONT TO INCREASE WIND AND SEAS TODAY. A CFP LATER TODAY WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME MORE WLY AND RAMP UP EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT AS THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND HIGH PRES TO THE W STRENGTHENS. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND. SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 KNOTS. WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THE WAA SW WIND WED NIGHT WILL BLOW PRETTY STRONG BECAUSE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE MUCH COOLER THAN THE SEA SURFACE.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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BELOW IS A LISTING OF RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR NOVEMBER 19 FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES. WE HAVE ALSO INCLUDED OUR FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 19, AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR ARRIVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS WRITTEN YESTERDAY AND I NEED TO UPDATE THE FCST LOW TEMP INFO BY 5 AM. 11/19 RECORD LOWS: 11/19 FORECAST LOWS: ACY 18 1936 ACY 21 PHL 20 1936 PHL 22 ILG 15 1936 ILG 20 ABE 11 1924 ABE 18 TTN 17 1936 TTN 19 GED 20 1959 GED 20 RDG 18 1936 RDG 18 MPO 10 1933 MPO 9
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054- 055. NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG 352 NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG 352 SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG 352 LONG TERM...DRAG 352 AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 352 MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 352 CLIMATE...352

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