Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201256 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 856 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical storm Jose will move slowly north and northeastward well offshore through tonight. High pressure will slowly build eastward tomorrow into the region and become firmly established for the remainder of the week into early next week. Jose will continue to meander well offshore through the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The center of Tropical Storm Jose was located about 250 miles east of the Delaware coast early this morning. It should move about 100 miles to the northeast during the course of the day. The circulation around Jose will maintain a northerly wind in our region. Speeds are forecast to be around 15 MPH near the coast and near 10 MPH inland. Varying amounts of cloud cover are expected for today as we remain on the outer edge of the system. The model guidance is suggesting the development of a weak convergence zone in eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey for this afternoon. We have included a slight chance of showers in parts of those areas. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be mostly in the lower and middle 80s which is about 8 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Jose is expected to continue drifting to the northeast for tonight. The sky over our region is forecast to become partly cloudy. The north to northwest wind is anticipated to diminish to 5 MPH or less at most locations. Low temperatures should favor the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday through Friday night: Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Winds will ease on Thursday as Jose continues to move away. Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. MAV/MET in better alignment with this now. Saturday through Tuesday: Ensemble guidance has had a reverse trend the last couple of cycles with more members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites showing a much weaker Jose making a loop back to the southwest by early next week. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid- level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region. Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance may still be playing catch up to the pattern that is expected to occur. Highs were raised a couple of degrees for the weekend from the ensemble mean with a few locations making a run close to 90 on Sunday. Stayed closer to the mean of the ensemble guidance for early next week given the increased uncertainty. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest, more clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would occur. Uncertainty also revolves around the interaction of Jose with Hurricane Maria and any potential impacts to our area by the early to middle part of next week. Stay tuned to the latest advisories and forecasts from the National Hurricane forecast for more information on Jose and Maria. && .AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Localized MVFR ceilings are forecast early this morning. Otherwise, we are anticipating VFR conditions through the balance of the TAF period with varying amounts of cloud cover. A northerly wind around 10 to 15 knots today is expected to diminish to 8 knots or less for tonight. The wind direction may begin to back toward the northwest at that time. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 7-15 knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough early Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and KMIV. Friday through Sunday: VFR. Winds generally 10 knots or less. && .MARINE... The Tropical Storm Warning will be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory. A north to northwest wind on our ocean waters should start the day at 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon, then around 10 knots for tonight. However, wave heights will remain high due to Tropical Storm Jose. Waves on our ocean waters should be 7 to 10 feet this morning and 5 to 8 feet this afternoon. They are forecast to subside to 4 to 6 feet tonight. The wind is expected to diminish gradually today on Delaware Bay, as well. The Small Craft Advisory for the upper bay should be allowed to expire at 10:00 AM. We will keep a Small Craft Advisory for the lower bay until 4:00 PM, mainly for wind gusts and waves this morning and simply for waves this afternoon. It should take until late afternoon for the wave heights near the mouth of Delaware Bay to drop below 5 feet. Outlook... Tropical headlines replaced with a SCA. Seas will remain above five feet through the entire outlook period given the proximity of Jose on the coastal waters. Rip Currents... Tropical Storm Jose will continue to push swells toward the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today. As a result, there remains a high risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for today. The risk may drop to moderate for Thursday-Friday with waves subsiding a bit and winds becoming light. However, long- period swells from Hurricane Maria may arrive this weekend, which could raise the risk to high again. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies have come down about 1/2 to 3/4 ft (anomalies are currently 1.25-1.75 ft above astronomical) since peaking last night, which is enough to prevent another round of moderate coastal flooding from occurring across the area with the ongoing high tide cycle this morning. Accordingly, the Coastal Flood Warning for Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland Counties in New Jersey and for Sussex and Kent Counties in Delaware have been cancelled and replaced with a Coastal Flood Advisory. The Coastal Flood Advisory also includes the central NJ coastline and Raritan Bay as well as coastal areas along the Delaware Bay. The Coastal Flood Advisory was also extended into tonight for the abovementioned areas to cover the subsequent high tide cycle this evening. We do not anticipate any tidal flooding with today or tonight`s high tide along the Delaware River upstream from the Commodore Barry Bridge area or on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay. The potential for minor tidal flooding around the times of high tide will likely linger into tonight and Thursday, and perhaps even into Friday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NJZ014-024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016. DE...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ430. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Iovino Marine...Gaines/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding...Klein is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.