Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 181244 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 744 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IMPACTS OUR REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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93O AM FIRST CUT ESTF UPDATE...ADDED MORE CLOUD COVER THRU 20Z I95 CORRIDOR NWWD AND BOOSTED WINDS 3-5 KT. 35 KT AT KMPO AT 12Z...GOING TO BE A BREEZY DAY. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD LWX ISSUES OUR PUBLIC PRODUCTS TODAY AS WE ARE DOWN FOR SOFTWARE UPDATES. MOUNT HOLLY RESUMES ITS NORMAL CWA RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT: WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW, AND THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS CONTINUING TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION, EXPECT A COOLER DAY TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, NEAR THE NORMALS FOR THIS DAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES, RESULTING IN DECREASING WIND SPEEDS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... ONE LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVER NIGHT, BUT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION, ONLY INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDING CLOSER TO THE REGION, EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO DECOUPLE SOON AFTER SUNSET. THIS COULD SET UP PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION IF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTH. FOR NOW HOWEVER, HAVE GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS NEAR NORMALS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MID-LEVEL FLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS RATHER FLAT THOUGH A CHANGE TO THAT PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A DEEP TROUGH EMERGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY TUESDAY AS MULTIPLE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS OUR REGION...WE ARE HEADING FOR A VERY UNSETTLED PERIOD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY - SATURDAY...BOTH DAYS LOOK DRY. FRIDAY SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD YIELD PARTY CLOUDY SKIES. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY INTO THE STORMIER PATTERN BUT WITH THE ONCE EAST COAST STORM BEGAN TO TREND WEAKER AND WEAKER WE LOOK TO BE DRIER AND DRIER. THERE IS SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO CONTEND WITH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THAT COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES THROUGH BUT THESE SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. SUNDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH MAY THROW BACK SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE OF OUR REGION. WHERE WE ONCE HAD LIKELY POPS HAVE NOW TRENDED TO CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF NO CHANCE IN THE COMING DAYS. AS FOR PTYPES, THE INTERIOR ZONES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SNOW ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE EVERYWHERE. MONDAY - TUESDAY...ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ABOVE DEPARTS ANOTHER, BETTER DEFINED SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WEDNESDAY...STILL WATCHING A LARGE LOW PRESSURE FORM TO OUR WEST AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR REGION UNDER A WARMING THERMAL PROFILE WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AN ALL LIQUID EVENT IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. WHAT IS INTERESTING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IS HOW THEY ARE SEEMINGLY WEAKENING THE PRIMARY LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE LAKES ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER, STRONGER, PIECE OF PAC NW ENERGY TO PRODUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. IF THIS EASTWARD TREND AND CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES WE COULD BE SINGING A DIFFERENT TUNE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NONE-THE-LESS, LOTS OF MOISTURE, WINDS, AND POSSIBLY CONVECTION, ARE LOOKING BETTER AND BETTER...WE CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. KLWX ISSUES TAFS FROM THIS POINT FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MOUNT HOLLY RESUMES TAF ISSUANCE AROUND 21Z. SOFTWARE UPGRADES FOR MOUNT HOLLY TODAY. MOUNT HOLLY WILL BE ON THE AVIATION RELATED PHONE COLLABORATIONS. TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN 3500-4500 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 22-30 KT SUBSIDE AFTER 19Z. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SC SLOWLY DIMINISHING THOUGH SC MAY HOLD ON MUCH OF THE NIGHT NEAR AND JUST N OF KABE/KRDG DUE TO A DEVELOPING INVERSION NEAR 5000 FT. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS RACING EWD BASICALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF KLNS-KMJX NEAR 06Z/19. GUSTY NW WINDS SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY - SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY. SUNDAY - MONDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, PRIMARILY FOR WINDS, CONTINUES OVER THE BAY THROUGH NOON, AND OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SOME NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD STILL BE IN THE 20 PLUS KNOT RANGE, THOUGH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE. SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PRESENT THEMSELVES LATER ON MONDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ430-431. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 743 SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...HEAVENER AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 743 MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON

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