Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 131736 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 136 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Tennessee Valley shifts offshore on Wednesday. Low pressure will pass north of the area later Thursday. A more unsettled pattern arrives for the weekend with a few chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast remains on track as we head through this afternoon with just some high clouds passing through. Those will dim the sunshine at times today, but have generally thinned out as the day has progressed, and should continue that trend. If anything, temperatures are running slightly above forecast highs, with low 70s for many locations, making for our warmest day since at least early November. High pressure will continue drifting off the southeast coast, with a light west/southwest flow continuing for today, and much lighter winds than the past few days. A shortwave will pass just to the south, which is the cause of our high clouds, but will not have any additional impact. At our climate sites, afternoon highs are around 15-20+ degrees above normal for mid- March. With good heating on the mainland, a sea- breeze is developing, though with flow prevailing out of the west/southwest, it will not get too far inland. As a result, expect cooler temperatures near the immediate coast, in the mid 50s to low 60s this afternoon. For tonight, skies should clear out for most of the night. Winds will go light as well and we should have favorable conditions to radiate well. Temperatures will drop into the 40s region-wide as a result.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains in control Thursday. Temps will be well above normal for mid March with 70s across most of the region on Thursday. Flow will be light aloft and at the surface should we should have another pleasant day to end the mid-week. A weak disturbance will pass by the region Thursday night, bringing a chance for showers mainly across the northern half of the CWA. Warm conditions will continue through Friday with forecast highs in the upper 60s to low 70s once again, but chances for rainfall will arrive for the latter half of the day as a cold front sweeps through the region. Guidance has taken a step back on total QPF amounts in the latest runs, but some locally heavier amounts will be possible where a heavier shower sets up. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either with limited instability and modest lapse rates. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak ridging moves overhead Saturday, bringing a mostly dry day before another cold front arrives to bring another chance for rain on Sunday. Still a bit of model spread in terms of exact timing, but latest deterministic guidance is leaning towards the best precipitation chances Sunday to occur during the later half of the day. Cooler, but more seasonable air begins to filter in across the region Monday with highs mainly in the 50s. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front will arrive Monday night, with a few showers possible ahead of the front on Monday, mainly across the Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either. As a result of the front, temperatures fall down below climo by Tuesday with highs in the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Today...VFR with scattered to broken high clouds moving through. West/Southwest winds around 5 to 10 kt. A sea-breeze looks to develop and make it past KACY around 20Z, turning winds more south to perhaps southeast still around 5-10 kt. High confidence in prevailing VFR. Moderate confidence in sea- breeze timing and how far inland it gets (the main question being if it gets to KMIV or not). Tonight...VFR. West/southwest winds around 5 kt or less. High confidence. Outlook... Thursday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Winds generally 5-10 knots and mainly out of the west through Thursday then south Thursday night. Moderate confidence. Friday...Periods of sub-VFR conditions possible with chances (45- 55%) for showers or possibly a thunderstorm. 10-15 knot winds start southwesterly then become northwesterly Friday night behind a front. Low confidence. Saturday...Mainly VFR. West-northwest winds around 10 knots during the day become southwesterly 5-10 knots overnight. Moderate confidence. Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chances (20-30%) for light rain showers. Southwest winds 10-15 knots. Low confidence.
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&& .MARINE... No marine headlines expected for all waters. South/southwest winds around 5-10 kt through tonight. Seas on the ocean will be 1 to 2 feet. Outlook... No marine headlines anticipated through Sunday for most of the period as winds are expected to be mainly 10-15 knots with seas of 1-3 feet. Friday night into Saturday may be the exception as some gusts around 20 knots are possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Minor coastal flooding possible for areas along the Delaware River and Delaware Bay beginning this evening and into Thursday morning. Weakening offshore flow on Wednesday will allow water levels to rebuild. Areas with the greatest chance to see impacts from minor coastal flooding are under an advisory. Other locations along the Delaware River/Bay and the coastal Atlantic could also see spotty minor coastal flooding late Wednesday and into Thursday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ070-071. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ021. Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NJZ017-018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 5 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ001. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Thursday for DEZ002. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MJL NEAR TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich SHORT TERM...MJL LONG TERM...MJL AVIATION...Dodd/Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Dodd/Hoeflich/MJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PHI STAFF

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