Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190127 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN. THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW 50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA, BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA. GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER SUNRISE. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS EXPECTED. TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE OCEAN INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU. && .CLIMATE... TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS. KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80) KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81) KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86) KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>452. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA FIRE WEATHER... CLIMATE...

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