Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281030 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 630 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE FROST ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PUBLIC PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 630 AM ESTF. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NJ THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A DECENT SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PRECEDED THE LOW AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE W/S LATE MORNING AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE N/E AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THIS FCST. OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THIS FCST WITH THE PREVIOUS VALUES LOOKING CLOSE TO WHAT IS BEING OFFERED IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 50S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE DELMARVA/SOUTH NJ AND THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY/NERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10 TO 15 MPH CLOSE TO THE SHORE AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT. THE SHIELD OF THICKER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS/OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S. THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHC OF ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BY DAWN. POPS WILL DECREASE LATER TONIGHT HOWEVER. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT AS MOST OF IT SEEMS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN PART DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING THE WEATHER TO BE MOSTLY DRY FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND NRN NJ AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH CAUSES DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS. THE PREVAILING ERLY FLOW IS BECOMING MORE HUMID AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND W WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CLR/PC AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY. RAINS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR THEN POSSIBLE IFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEW TAFS ARE A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS WITH SOME OF THE NEW LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SOME FOG WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING AND FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START TO RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE OCEAN. SATURDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AND CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY INCREASING AND POSSIBLY NEARING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO START TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON OCEAN. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE NE MD CHESAPEAKE SHORE AREAS WILL RUN HIGH FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE DEPARTURES ARE BECOMING LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGH AND LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW MINOR TIDAL LEVELS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA

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