Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 161745 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 145 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO OUR NORTH INTO CANADA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN SLOWLY EASE OFFSHORE AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE. MORE CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE UNSTABLE LATER TODAY. WE STILL REMAIN IN THE WARMER PART OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...WITH THE COLDER AIR AWAITING WELL NORTH/WEST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY LOW 70S OVER THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOWER THAN WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... THE UPPER LOW WILL BE FILLING IN AND MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA...A TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP SOME EXTRA CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 800 PM. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE EARLY EVENING N/W AND ACROSS SRN DEL. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 50S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAY. A GFS AND WRF-NMMB COMBINATION SEEMED TO HAVE VERIFIED THE BEST WITH THE 00Z UA SOUNDINGS. WE FOLLOWED THIS APPROACH AS BEST WE COULD INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE WE FOLLOWED A COMBINATION OF LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, CONTINUITY AND MODELING CONSENSUS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. A BRISK RETURN TO OCTOBER IS PREDICTED FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLOSING LOW FOR NEXT WEEK. WITH THE CLOSING LOW, THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND MOST FARTHEST WEST. THE UKMET AS FAR AS WE CAN SEE AS WELL AS THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM THE ECMWF WAS RIGHT AT INITIALLY FORECASTING A SLOWER SOLUTION, BUT FROM THERE WILL VERIFY AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS TOO LATE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TIME PERIOD. SO WHILE WE EDGED THE PCPN INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR TIMING FOR NOW IS CLOSER TO OTHER MODELING CLUSTERING, A FASTER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE SLOWING/STALLING. OUR PRESENT CLOSED LOW/TROF WILL BE LONG GONE BY FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. DOES NOT LOOK EVEN THERE TO BE MORE THAN A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY. STAT GUIDANCE DID NOT SUGGEST MUCH CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY WITH MAX TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ITS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PRECEDED BY MUCH CLOUDINESS BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. STAT GUIDANCE IS MORE PESSIMISTIC. REGARDLESS THE NIGHT IS LONG ENOUGH WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT GOING WITH THE LOWER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. CAA STARTS ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CFP. ALSO THE TROF ALOFT IS YET TO PASS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SHORT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONCLUSION IS THAT THE CAA WILL BE GREATER THAN THE DPVA FROM THE AFTERNOON ONWARD. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN THE SHORT WAVES FIND A WAY, WE LIMITED (LOW) POPS TO THE NWRN PART OF OUR CWA. MAY BE SPRINKLES VS SHOWERS, BUT THE PREDICTED CAP IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO CALL IT SHOWERS FOR NOW. THE GFS TENDS TO BULL RUSH CAA IN DURING THE FALL, SO WE LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER NAM MOS FOR MAX TEMPS. IT WILL BE A BREEZIER DAY, EVEN IF ITS STILL WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. A CHILLIER NIGHT ON SATURDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY TOO MUCH WIND FOR FROST CONCERNS. IN ADDITION, SOME LAKE EFFECT RESIDUAL CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. STAT GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS AND PREDICTED DEW POINTS WOULD SUGGEST ONLY THE NWRN PART OF OUR CWA HAS SOME CONCERNS. BUT THEY MAY BE SHIELDED BY THE CLOUDS. A COOLER AND ANOTHER BRISK DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE THERMAL TROF PASSES THROUGH. WHILE STAT GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER, WE MET IN HALFWAY FROM CONTINUITY. FULL SUN MACROS AND PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS POINTED TOWARD A COMPROMISE. LESS OVERALL CU/SC PREDICTED. SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BECOME THE GROWING SEASON ENDER FOR A LARGER PART OF OUR CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN FROST AS CLOSE AS THE PHL NWRN SUBURBS, MIN TEMPS BARELY TOUCHED FREEZING, IF AT ALL, AWAY FROM THE POCONOS. SUNDAY NIGHT HAS THAT LOOK. MOST OF OUR MINS ARE IN THE 30S. A REBOUND DAY ON MONDAY PRECEDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BUT MAX TEMPS STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM HAS THAT WINTER LOOK TO IT. WITH A POSSIBLE MILLER B SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES TO HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS AND HOW QUICKLY DOES THE SURFACE LOW GET CAPTURED BY THE CLOSING LOW. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE. THAT BEING SAID, WE EDGED PCPN CHANCES INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WRAP AROUND SEEMS BULLISH FOR OCTOBER, LOOKS MORE LIKE A FEBRUARY OR MARCH SYSTEM. IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS A PTYPE IN THE POCONOS IF PCPN LINGERS INTO WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS THE END OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD REMAIN BRISK AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REST OF TODAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS THE MVFR CEILINGS START TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING DECKS AROUND 2500 FEET WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THIS EVENING. ONLY WIDELY SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS SOME INDICATION THAT FOG MAY FORM AT A FEW LOCALES, KRDG AND KMIV, OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT TAF. FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND LATE MORNING AND BE WEST SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS GUSTS BELOW 20 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY DAY AND SIMILAR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... THE SCA FLAGS FOR THE NJ/DE OCEAN WATERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR WINDS/SEAS THIS MORNING AND SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SWELLS ON THE OCEAN FROM DISTANT HURRICANE GONZALO SHOULD KEEP SEAS WITHIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN WAS EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DELAWARE BAY DUE TO INCREASING WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST WINDS. ON THE OCEAN, A COMBINATION OF LEFTOVER SWELLS FROM GONZALO AND A STRONGER WEST, THEN NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SUNDAY OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY AND CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE OCEAN BY MONDAY DAY. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...GIGI AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA

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