Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230136 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 936 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure near the mid Mississippi Valley will race eastward and it is forecast to pass over our region late on Thursday before moving quickly out to sea. High pressure is expected to build from the Great Lakes on Friday to the waters off southeastern Canada for the weekend. The high is anticipated to influence our weather into Monday. A slow moving cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest on Tuesday and should arrive in our region on Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Quiet conditions this evening as a frontal boundary extends down the east coast, across Virginia, and into the western Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. This front is expected to begin lifting northward as a warm front overnight and approach our southern areas, while a couple of areas of low pressure move along the front to our west. The cluster of showers and thunderstorms currently across the southern Great Lakes is expected to be moving through the Ohio Valley overnight, and push to our south through daybreak. There remains the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop across our area around daybreak, north of the main MCS, and continuing through the morning. It is also possible that the northern edge of the MCS may clip our southern counties as well. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Any showers/tstms rolling through the area, or just south, during the morning will move to the east by afternoon. More sct tstms are possible after this, however the detail with regards to any afternoon convection are uncertain attm. The SWODY2 outlook has much of the central and srn areas in a slight risk for svr weather tomorrow. We will mention this in the HWO and we have issued another briefing package too. Rainfall totals with the convection could top 1-2 inches in some areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... It appears as though there will be some lingering shower and thunderstorm activity in the southeastern part of our forecast area on Thursday evening but it should move quickly out to sea on Thursday night. The wind is expected to remain relatively light on Thursday night so patchy fog is possible, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall on Thursday. The mid level trough over eastern Canada and the western North Atlantic should progress slowly to the east on Friday and Saturday allowing a ridge to build overhead for Sunday. Another mid level trough moving across the Great Lakes on Sunday should knock back the ridge early in the new week. At the surface, high pressure is expected to move from the Great Lakes on Friday to the waters off southeastern Canada for the weekend. The air mass should bring our region dry weather into Monday. We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Monday night into Wednesday as a slow moving cold front drifts toward then into our region. Daytime highs are anticipated to be mostly in the 80s from Friday through Wednesday. Overnight lows will likely warm from the 50s and lower 60s on Thursday night and Friday night to mainly the 60s during the balance of the period. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions will continue through most of the overnight as our area remain on the northern side of a frontal boundary extending down the east coast, across Virginia, and into the western Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley. Most showers/thunderstorms associated with a thunderstorm complex are not expected to reach the area until around daybreak, and may pass mostly south of the TAF sites. Clouds will increase overnight as debris clouds from upstream convection arrives overnight. West to southwest winds are expected to become light and variable through the night for most areas. Thursday...Clouds will continue to thicken and lower from west to east around dawn and showers/tstms will overspread the area. The heaviest and strongest storms may pass south of the area, or affect the southern half of the area into the morning and early afternoon. Wind directions are problematic with a weak low expected to move along the warm front. Confidence is moderate to high for morning and early afternoon tstms, so a couple of tempo groups remain in the TAFS. You can expect some adjustments in the timing/location as the event draws nearer. Behind the morning tstms, probably mostly mvfr cigs before late afternoon clearing. OUTLOOK... Thursday night...Mainly VFR. However, patchy fog may reduce the ceiling and visibility into the MVFR or IFR category for a time at some locations. Friday through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Fair weather across the waters will continue through the night before showers and tstms arrive Thursday. Marginal 4-5 ft seas at the buoys will diminish through the night. We will not issue any SCA flag at this time. Winds will periodically gust around 20 knots. Higher winds and seas are possible around any tstm Thursday. OUTLOOK... Thursday night through Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Robertson/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Iovino/Robertson/O`Hara Marine...Iovino/O`Hara

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