Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 211637 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1237 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will deepen off the Virginia coast today and move offshore tonight and Sunday. An upper air disturbance will remain across the area from Sunday through Tuesday. High pressure will ridge across the area Wednesday and remain for part of Thursday. Another disturbance will arrive for the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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An area of low pressure is still on track to move northeast just offshore later today. However, the HRRR and RAP continue to trend this low and associated rainfall further east. As a result, away from the shore pops have been lowered for the afternoon hours with only scattered areas of light rain expected. The one exception is an area of light rain currently in Delaware and South Jersey which will move eastward and offshore by mid-afternoon. Temperatures have fallen slightly over the past few hours where the light rain has occurred, so some adjustments were made with the 12:30 pm update.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... The upper-level trough is forecast to sharpen across the east tonight as an omega blocking pattern develops. This will drive surface low pressure northeastward and away from our area. As this occurs, the pressure gradient relaxes and therefore the winds that start out a bit gusty along the coast will diminish at least some. As the forcing shifts offshore with the surface low, any steadier rain is expected to also shift offshore early with some showers lingering. The showers will mostly be driven by the amplifying upper- level trough. These showers may be more organized just to our west within the trough axis itself. We therefore lowered pops some through the night but allowed for at least scattered showers through the overnight. With the idea of abundance of clouds around through the night, temperatures should not drop off considerably but it will be cool. As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a MOS blend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The upper air pattern will change considerably this week and by week`s end it will feel more like summer. The pattern begins with a closed low across the Middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. This low will fill and exit off into the Atlantic Tuesday night and Wednesday. The upper low will bring mostly unsettled conditions with scattered showers much of the time and a chc for an afternoon tstm across southern NJ and the Delmarva Monday. Temperatures from Sunday thru Tuesday will be mostly below normal...but cloud be at normal levels on Tuesday...depending on how much influence the upper low still has at this time. On Wednesday...Upper heights will rise and sfc high pressure will settle across the area. Under fair skies...temperatures will climb above normal...something which has not happened much during May. Highs in the low 80s are expected at this time. The warm weather will continue for the rest of the extended period...but rain chcs will also increase for Thursday and into Friday. By this time, several short waves from the Midwest will have traveled across the Ohio Valley and across the Middle Atlantic. Pops will mostly be in the chc range for now, since the details will not be able to be resolved until the week progresses a little more. Our pops are a good fit with our neighboring offices. Thunder will be possible during the period with the added instability with abundant daytime heating. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. This afternoon...Mainly VFR, some MVFR possibile from KPHL and southeast with the steadiest showers. Easterly wind gusts around 15 knots this afternoon, perhaps an isolated wind gust to 25 knots for KACY late this afternoon. Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions overall, with perhaps VFR ceilings lingering at KABE. The greatest chance for IFR conditions should be from KILG to KPHL/KPNE to KTTN on south and east. LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out at KMIV and KACY. Any remaining steady rain tapers early to some showers with some visibility restrictions at times. Northeast winds 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots early (less at KABE and KRDG), diminishing through the overnight. outlook... Sunday thru Tuesday...VFR most of the time. Sct Showers thru the period may temporarily lower CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR/IFR. Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR expected. Fog possible Tue night.
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&& .MARINE...
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The start of the small craft was pushed back till 4 pm as easterly winds have been slow to increase this morning. A window still looks present for some easterly wind gusts near 25 knots by evening. Seas will be slow to rise and should rise above five feet tonight on the ocean. Moderate risk for rip currents today as well with the onshore flow and increasing easterly winds. A cool, raw day to be out at the beach. outlook... Sunday and Sunday night...SCA seas expected to continue on the Ocean. Sub-SCA conditions across Delaware Bay. Monday and Monday night...SCA conditions possible on the Ocean with the lingering effects of the coastal storm. Seas 3-5 ft. Tue thru Wed...Mostly Sub SCA conditions expected.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Gaines/Gorse Short Term...Gorse Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Gaines/Gorse/O`Hara Marine...Gaines/Gorse/O`Hara

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