Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230134 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 934 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure in southeast Virginia will move east of New Jersey later tonight while a weak cold front in central Pennsylvania crosses our area. Low pressure in North Carolina Tuesday will pass east of the mid Atlantic coast Tuesday night. Weak high pressure is left behind over our area on Wednesday. Stronger low pressure organizes in the Ohio Valley Wednesday night sending its associated fronts through the mid Atlantic states early Friday. Then high pressure follows on Saturday. However another storm system should develop over the nations midsection Sunday, threatening to mar a portion of Sunday or Memorial Day with a period or two of showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Showers have moved offshore. A few lingering pop up showers are possible going through tonight as a weak cold front over central Pennsylvania tracks east and passes through the region late tonight. Otherwise, cloudy and humid with abundant low level moisture due to the rainfall that fell today. Some fog has developed, mainly in the valleys, and in southern and eastern NJ where the heaviest rain fell. Despite 1/4SM VSBY at ACY and MPO, as well as at BLM earlier this evening, do not expect widespread dense fog to form. Therefore, will not issue a Dense Fog Advisory. A Special Weather Statement may be issued, however, if more areas of fog develop. For now, will generally cap VSBYs as low as 1SM. Depending on when that weak front passes through, ceilings and fog would lift prior to daybreak, as opposed to after daybreak with heating of the day. Overnight lows will generally range from the mid/upper 40s north of I-80 to the mid 50s for most of NJ and SE PA, and near 60s for the Delmarva. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The frontal boundary that moves across the area overnight is expected to stall to our south. An area of low pressure is forecast to move along this boundary from the south, as the first low pressure lifts to the northeast. The low pressure, nor the frontal boundary, is expected to make its way back into our area during the day, however there will be a chance of showers to lift across portions of the area later during the day on the north side of the low. The greatest chance for showers will be across southern Delmarva and southern New Jersey. With no instability forecast, we do not expect any thunderstorms across our area. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z NAM was not applied for this discussion. It was not off to a good start today. Hazards: it seems almost inevitable that some sort of hydro related products will eventually be needed by next Monday in this pattern, but whether its more than nuisance flooding FLSs is debatable. All we know is that widespread 1.5 to 2.5" occurred in less than 12 hours over parts of the Delmarva and southeast NJ today with a fairly large area of 3+ in southeast NJ. Suspect isolated max amt of 4" today with small streams and rivers still rising late today. Legacy DIX STP was best with considerable low bias in DOX STA/STP. MRMS was also low. 500mb: A sharpening and unusually strong high amplitude trough in the nations midsection will close off and weaken as it moves to New England Friday, with ridging to follow this weekend. The next trough will be organizing in the Great Lakes region early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday-Saturday near normal warming somewhat Sunday and Monday, ahead of the next trough. Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of the 12z/22 GFS/NAM MOS for Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then the 12z/22 GFS MEX MOS for Thursday with the 15z WPC guidance for Thursday night- next Monday. We did modify guidance temps downward Thursday and Sunday in response to GGEM and ECMWF cooler pattern. The dailies... Forecaster confidence is below average on details the entire period. Tuesday night through Wednesday...Depending on the path of the next coastal...a pretty good chance of rain far southeast and probably dry north where a nice Wednesday is expected. SREF PWAT is down. Wednesday night and Thursday...Looks wet in warm air advection. Questionable how much warming can occur with what looks to be a negative tilt southern extension of the trough moving toward our area and causing a triple point low to approach through PA. That also may permit a better chance for isolated thunderstorms. SREF PWAT back up to 1.75". Friday...Partly sunny and a breezy west wind should develop with afternoon warming and only a small chance of a residual shower in the north. Memorial Day weekend...A good start is anticipated Saturday. However, Sunday and Monday should see a period or two of showers and possible thunderstorms. Still plenty of uncertainty but its not looking to be a picture perfect weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Below average forecaster confidence for tonight through Tuesday morning. Generally speaking, an IFR forecast for low CIGs on tap for at least most of tonight. Some terminals are already reporting LIFR conditions, and KACY has 1/4SM VSBY in FG. Fog will continue to develop, but despite IFR/LIFR CIGs, do not expect much in the way of IFR or lower VSBYs. VSBYs should stay at MVFR, for the most part. Depending on when that front comes through, conditions may begin to lift prior to daybreak. The LAV guidance has the low CIGs, so will trend with that forecast. But there may be AMDs needed should conditions lift earlier than expected. Light and variable winds through the overnight. As the occluded frontal boundary moves across the area, winds will become north-northwest to north-northeast. Speeds through the next 24 hours are expected to be 5-10 knots or less. OUTLOOK... Forecaster confidence on details is below average through Friday morning. Tuesday night...VFR conditions north and possibly the entire area but a risk of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers vicinity KMIV/KACY. East to northeast wind. Wednesday...VFR except possible MVFR/IFR conditions during the morning KMIV and KACY. East to northeast wind gusts to 15 mph. Thursday...VFR CIGS with probable periods of MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and isolated thunderstorms. Easterly winds probably becoming southeast to south at night. Friday...Improving conditions after any early morning showers end with mainly VFR expected. Westerly wind gusts to 25 kt possible in the afternoon. Saturday...VFR. Westerly wind. && .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels tonight through Tuesday. Wind directions will begin out of the southeast this evening and overnight, before becoming north- northwest to north-northeast late tonight into Tuesday as an occluded front moves across the area. Areas of fog expected on the waters, but think for the most part, VSBYs should be greater than 1NM. There is the potential for fog to reduce VSBYs to locally less than 1 NM through Tuesday morning, but for now, confidence remains low, and will not issue a Marine Dense Fog Advisory. OUTLOOK... Forecaster confidence on this outlook section is below average Tuesday night and Wednesday then above average thereafter. Tuesday night and Wednesday...may need an SCA for hazardous seas for the DE Atlantic coastal waters. Otherwise northeast to east wind with gusts generally under 20 kt. Thursday...SCA probable for the well organized Ohio Valley low. East to southeast winds build the seas to between 5 and 8 feet on the Atlantic waters. Friday...SCA may continue for leftover hazardous seas on the Atlantic portion of our coastal waters. Westerly wind develops with nearshore gusts to 20-25 kt. Saturday...Marine headlines not likely. && .HYDROLOGY... Hazards: it seems almost inevitable that some sort of hydro related products will eventually be needed by next Monday in this pattern, but whether its more than nuisance flooding FLSs is debatable. All we know is that widespread 1.5 to 2.5" occurred in less than 12 hours over parts of the Delmarva and southeast NJ today with a fairly large area of 3+ in southeast NJ. Suspect isolated max amt of 4" today with small streams and rivers still rising late today. Legacy DIX STP was best with considerable low bias in DOX STA/STP. MRMS was also low. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are at some of their highest of the year this Wednesday and Thursday evenings. Some onshore flow will contribute positive surge departures and its probable that a few locations along the Atlantic coasts of DE and NJ will exceed the minor coastal flood advisory threshold. It only takes about .6 to .7 feet surge above high tide to reach the threshold. It`s all in the details, which are yet to be confidently determined. The SIT and ETSS modeling, forecasts minor with a small chance of a moderate episode if, prior to high tide, onshore flow is strong enough and for enough duration. Right now...no action needed. && .CLIMATE... As of 5:25 PM EDT, a record rainfall of 1.85" was recorded at ACY. This breaks the old record of 1.19" set in 1909. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag Near Term...Robertson/MPS Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/Robertson Marine...Drag/Robertson Hydrology... Tides/Coastal Flooding... Climate...

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