Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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239 FXUS61 KPHI 280132 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 932 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure across the mid- Atlantic region will maintain generally fair and warm weather through the weekend. Moisture from the remnants of a tropical system to our south may reach the area by Memorial Day and interact with a weak frontal system to produce showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure and dry but continued warm weather are expected through the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Nearly all of the showers to our west have dissipated with the exception of one cluster of showers to our southwest, but the max reflectivity on those cells has been trending down as well, so will continue the dry forecast through the overnight hours. Added in a mention of patchy fog, primarily over the northwestern portions of the region which have the lowest dew point depressions right now. Otherwise, no major changes with the 930 PM EDT update. One note in the near term, with implications in the long term: as of 5 PM EDT, the National Hurricane Center began issuing public advisories for tropical depression 2 (the low off the coast of SE U.S.). We will not be getting strong winds from this system, but we could see moisture from the remnants of this system Sunday night into Monday (see the long term section). A light southerly wind is expected for tonight. Minimum temperatures should be mostly in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Another mostly sunny and very warm day is expected for Saturday. Maximum temperatures are anticipated to be similar to those of today. A west to east axis of enhanced instability is forecast to develop from central Pennsylvania across our far northern counties. We will mention the chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms for that area. The remainder of our forecast area should be rain-free. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic region is expected to continue through the extended forecast period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical system now off the SE Atlantic coast. Ridging aloft and surface high pressure will dominate at the start Sat night, with just a few evening showers possible across far N NJ and adjacent PA. However moisture from tropical depression 2 NE of the Bahamas is forecast to move N into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday with an increasing chance of showers and T-storms by afternoon. Showers and storms are forecast to continue Sunday night into Monday as a weak frontal system moves into the area from the NW. PWATS are forecast to be near 2 inches over the area so some heavy downpours and possible flooding can be expected. Clouds and precip will result in milder daytime temps on Monday. By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trough moves by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there is not much change in air mass with the with the associated surface front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased chances for precip. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with two exceptions. First, patchy fog is possible between 09 and 14Z primarily for KRDG, KABE, and KTTN. MVFR visibilities and very localized IFR visibilities will be possible, but it should dissipate quickly with sunrise as the nearly saturated layer will be quite thin. Secondly, there is another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon. However, expect them to stay north of the TAF sites at this time. Southerly and southwesterly winds are expected to be light through 12 Z. The southwest to south wind at 6 to 10 knots is expected to return for Saturday. After 19Z, a sea breeze is expected to develop, likely affecting KACY, and possibly getting as far inland as KMIV. To the east of this sea breeze expect Southerly winds around 10G20KT. OUTLOOK... Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and T-storms. && .MARINE... High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southerly flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Saturday. Wind speeds will favor the 10 to 15 knot range. A few gusts near 25 KT are possible on the northern NJ coastal waters through midnight, but winds should be diminishing soon. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 3 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...AMC/Johnson Near Term...Iovino/Johnson Short Term...Iovino Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/Iovino/Johnson Marine...AMC/Iovino/Johnson

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