Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 200153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CAROLINA ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OUT TO
SEA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION IN ITS WAKE FOR SATURDAY. A
WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTHERN DELAWARE
EARLIER THIS EVENING THE REGION DID NOT SEE MUCH RAIN. A FEW
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SPRINTED THROUGH THE REGION BUT WE REALLY COULD
NOT GET MUCH GOING, EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT BRINGING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER ARIMASS WITH
IT. WE WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID-WEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME
GUSTS OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE GUSTS, IN GENERAL, SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 10 MPH.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE
SOUTHERN DELAWARE WHERE A LOW OF 60 IS POSSIBLE. THESE TEMPS
AREN`T TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TOMORROW, LOOKS LIKE LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN WHAT
WE`RE SEEING TODAY AND SHOULD TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST, IN THE 60S ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN , AND IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
LOW. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25
MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S IN OUR REGION
WITH A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NORTH.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
THURSDAY`S WEAK LOW IN NORTH CAROLINA AND ITS IMPACTS ON OUR
WEATHER. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE OVERHEAD
FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS IS ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY BEFORE CLEARING GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALSO, RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE FORECAST IMPACTS
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM MAY SHIFT A LITTLE AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND IT SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON
FRIDAY. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. IT SHOULD
BE PRECEDED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN OUR REGION ON FRIDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT, SO WE WILL FORECAST FEW CLOUDS AND NO RAINFALL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE
COAST LATE ON SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS SHOULD BRING OUR FORECAST
AREA DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE, A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC LIFT. ALSO,
THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF BOTH BOUNDARIES REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THIS POINT, FIVE AND SIX DAYS REMOVED.
HOWEVER, WE WILL INDICATE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AXIS OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD
AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
KT. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN FROM
KILG, KMIV AND KACY SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH IN THE EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT. GUSTS SHOULD
SETTLE RIGHT AROUND 20 KT. GUSTS COULD REACH 25 KT. MODELS PEG THE
NORTHERN WATERS AFTER 3 AM. SEAS SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN 4 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

FOR TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS AREA WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN. THOSE ISOLATED 25 KT GUSTS COULD
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM, OTHERWISE EXPECT 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR TOMORROW, WE`LL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH AND DRY FINE
FUELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, BUT MINIMUM RH`S ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE.

ALSO, WIND GUSTS MAY BE AROUND 20 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 30 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE AT THAT TIME IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
MARINE...IOVINO/KRUZDLO
FIRE WEATHER...KRUZDLO


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