Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 092130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM, LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
APPROACHING THE EASTERN WESTERN SHORT OF VA. MEANWHILE, PRECIP IS
SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NJ, BUT IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH POINTS FURTHER NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO DELMARVA IN ADVANCE OF A MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWNWARD SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND I-
195, AND DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY
NJ SOUTHWEST TO QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY MD AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, AS THE
PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY JUST NORTH OF THE I-
195 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE, THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN OVER
NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER MOST
OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD IT
WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING THIS THURSDAY. A
TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING THE
WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
-25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE. ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD
SHIFT OFFSHORE PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR KPHL
ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT
SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND REBOUND FURTHER
ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL
BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW
TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS ON
SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE, COLDEST
NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDCHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES, MAINLY TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BENEATH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER BUFKIT,
THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE,
DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND
BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE POSITIVE
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS EVENING.
FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING ARE ABOUT
0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT
SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S
DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY UP
INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER A
NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

WE THINK THAT AFTER THE CURRENT MINOR FLOODING FINISHES WORKING ITS
WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
NO ADDITIONAL ISSUES IN THAT AREA. WE PLAN ON DROPPING THE ADVISORY
THERE AT 500 PM AND NOT ISSUING A NEW ONE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THERE AND
THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE HAVE MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM FOR KENT ISLAND
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT COUNTY AND CECIL
COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG


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