Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 281705
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING TODAY, THEN ACROSS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY, THEN IT
SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NORTH/EAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH. A WRLY/SWRLY FLOW OF DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SKIES CLEARED
OUT FOR A LITTLE WHILE S/E EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE CLOUDS
HAVE ONCE AGAIN FILLED IN. A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE UPDATED A BIT WITH THE ESTF. THE DEW POINTS WERE
MODIFIED A BIT ALSO...DOWNWARD IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT. DRYING WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON A WESTERLY WIND. THE SKY IS
EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST THAT
MAY FLATTEN OUT SOME DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER A
TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EAST WITH VARYING AMPLITUDE. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH EVEN
SOME AMPLIFICATION OCCURRING TUESDAY. A BREAK AHEAD OF THIS THOUGH
SHOULD ALLOW WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER TO BE OUR AREA MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A SHORT WAVE
THAT WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
MAY DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST TUESDAY, PULLING A
WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT, HOWEVER IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW ACTIVE IT WILL BE AS MOST OF THE LIFT SHOULD RESIDE
FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
LOW. THERE MAY END UP BEING A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN FOCUS
SOME CONVECTION MAINLY INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF ENOUGH INSTABILITY, DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A BELT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NEARING FROM THE WEST
COULD RESULT IN A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM LATER TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
SHARPEN SOME WEDNESDAY, FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
SHOULD LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO
SLOW DURING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SOME CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WILL
DEPEND ON FRONTAL LIFT, AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND ANY EARLIER
CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND THEN STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH
THURSDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG IT. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDER, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS MORE UNCERTAIN ATTM.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS A WEAK SURFACE
HIGH INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY AS A SMALL RIDGE ARRIVES AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. AS DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASES AND THE SURFACE HIGH /PENDING IT IS PRESENT/ MOVES
OFFSHORE, A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE AS OF NOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH
SATURDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STILL BACK ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. GIVEN MORE MODEL VARIABILITY, WE BLENDED IN THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WHICH GENERALLY KEEPS CHC POPS FOR
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A WEST
SOUTHWEST WIND HAS DEVELOPED. THIS WIND SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S FOR THE AFTERNOON. A WESTERLY
WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TAF SITES AS OF LATE MORNING AND
THEY SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY
COVER WILL BE MOSTLY BKN TODAY AND SCT/SKC TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR, WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY LATE.
WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS, BECOMING WESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS MAY END UP BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND TOWARD CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY AND INTO THE
WEST FOR TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR TODAY. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS IN THE COOL AIR
ADVECTION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY
DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THEM
TO DROP BELOW 5 FEET.

DUE TO TODAY`S WAVE HEIGHTS AND THE EXPECTED WIND GUSTS FOR
TONIGHT, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS UNTIL 600 AM MONDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT ON DELAWARE
BAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

TUESDAY...AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A WARM FRONT MAY
BUILD THE SEAS ON THE OCEAN TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A TIME.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AGITATED TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND AT THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/PO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...



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