Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 250750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION MID
WEEK. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE REGION WILL BRING DRY AND WARM WX TO THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPR LEVEL RIDGE TO THE W BEGINS TO PUSH CLOSER.  NELY
WIND ERLY WILL BECOME S TO SWLY LATE.  CLOUDS WILL BE FEW.  MDL GUID
WAS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON TEMPS AND WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE AREA SO A CLEAR
SKY, AND DRY CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  AGAIN, MOS GUID WAS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
THAN THE MODEL RUNS 24 HOURS AGO.

TUESDAY...START TO SEE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOP IN THE LOW
LEVELS AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE PIVOTS
SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH OF THESE WILL RESULT IN RATHER PRONOUNCED WARM UP FOR
TUESDAY. HIGHS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LATEST LONG
RANGE MODEL RUNS IS WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THERE
HAD BEEN A TREND UP THROUGH YESTERDAY`S 00Z MODEL RUNS OF DELAYING
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT (OR NOT EVEN BRINGING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH AT ALL), THE 12Z RUNS, AND NOW THE LATEST 00Z RUNS HAVE SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING IN OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY, TO START
THIS PERIOD, MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL (SUGGESTING
THAT THE FRONT MAY NOT DIG AS FAR SOUTH). HOWEVER, BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH QUICKLY DIGGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL CANADA, CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT, THOUGH WITH DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW IN THE PERIODS LEADING UP TO THIS, THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, AND THUS HOW WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL
BE. THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO HAS AN IMPACT ON
INSTABILITY, AS DOES THE EXPECTED NIGHT TIME ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
THUS...AT THIS TIME SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY, BUT IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING DAY LIGHT HOURS, NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ON A SIDE NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD, CRISTOBAL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
WELL OUT TO SEA, AND BY THIS POINT RACING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
REGION. THUS, THE ONLY IMPACTS WE ARE EXPECTING FROM CRISTOBAL ARE
LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND AN ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK, THOUGH THE
TIMING OF BOTH IS UNCERTAIN.

FRIDAY...THE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES IN OVER THE
REGION, ALBEIT BRIEFLY, BY FRIDAY, LEADING TO A COOL AND DRY DAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OFF THE
COAST, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS BRINGING A WARMING TREND,
AND MORE MOISTURE. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS A
SECOND COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EXCELLENT FLYING WX IS IN STORE THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM PDS WITH
VFR CONDS PREVAILING.  HIGH PRES WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE.
THERE WILL BE HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY AND IT WILL BE DRY.

A NELY WIND WILL PREVAIL ERLY UNDER 10 KTS, THEN BY LATE AFTN/ERLY
EVE, THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE SLY SWLY AND REMAIN UNDER 10 KTS.
THE WIND MAY BECOME VERY LIGHT WLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A
SMALL RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT COULD PUSH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS PREV ISSUED MAINLY FOR SEAS DUE TO
THE NELY FLOW.  THE FLOW SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SLY THEN SWLY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE, AFTER WHICH TIME
NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WE
COULD BEGIN TO SEE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
CYCLONE CRISTOBAL, WHICH WILL STAY WELL OUT TO SEA, AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TIMING AS WELL AS WAVE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE SWELLS IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS IS HIGH TODAY, AND MAY REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE COMBINATION OF TODAY`S NEW
MOON, LONG FETCH ONSHORE FLOW EARLY AND THEN LONG PERIOD SWELLS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL LATER IN THE WEEK SHOULD
KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THE LATEST TRACK OF CRISTOBAL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
KEEPS CRISTOBAL WELL OFF THE CONUS CST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG/JOHNSON






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