Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 212338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
738 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2016

A front across the region this evening will move to the east
overnight. An area of high pressure will prevail across the area
wednesday. Low pressure and another series of fronts will affect the
area late Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will
return for Friday and persist through the weekend. A cold front will
approach from the west early next week.


Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is becoming more limited
across much of our region (with the exception of Delmarva), so
have trimmed the watch back slightly.

Meanwhile, the sky remained mostly sunny over our northern counties
where dry air has taken hold in the developing west to northwest

A clear to partly cloudy sky is expected for tonight after the last
of the convection passes off the coast this evening. There may be
some patchy fog in areas that received rain today.

Minimum temperatures should be in the 50s in our far northern
counties and in the 60s elsewhere with a light wind.


A mid level short wave trough is expected to pass over New York
State on Wednesday morning, reaching New England in the afternoon.
It may bring some clouds to our far northern counties, otherwise it
should have little impact on our region. Meanwhile, weak high
pressure will likely build into our forecast area from the west.

We are anticipating dry weather conditions for Wednesday with highs
mostly in the 80s. A west wind around 10 to 15 mph may gust to 20 or
25 mph at times.


Wed night thru Thu night...This looks to be the more active part of
the long term. Another low pressure system will emerge from the
plains stares and head across the Great Lakes. The low will then
move across PA/NY on Wed. The abundance of warm/humid air on the
south of the low and the associated fronts will produce another
round of showers/tstms beginning across the wen areas late wed night
and then spreading across the entire area Thu. Severe weather is a
strong possibility with the SPC Day 3 outlook now showing 1/2 the
area (Srn) in an outlook. The weather will end from w to e through
the night Thu. A briefing package has been already sent to highlight
this weather and the HWO will also have mention of it. Temperatures
this period mostly near normal.

Fri thru Sun...A mostly dry period with high pressure returning to
the area. If the system is a bit slower to clear, there may be some
lingering showers during the morning across the ern areas.
Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal Fri, rising to above
normal by Sun.

Sun night thru Tue...Plenty of uncertainty, but the ridge across
the area will be waning and a h5 trough will be progressing
towards the area. A cold front should cross the area early next
week. We stuck with the chc pops that were in there, since it
matches well with nearby offices. Temperatures will be above
normal with mid/upper 80s for highs Mon and Tue.


The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There
are two exceptions. First, isolated showers and thunderstorms over
the next few hours could affect KPNE, KTTN, and KMIV. Also, MVFR
visibility restrictions around 08 to 12Z will be possible
especially for locations that had alot of rain today.

The showers and thunderstorms that were affecting KMIV and KACY at
mid afternoon should be off the coast by 2200Z. Mainly VFR
conditions are anticipated after that time, again with the potential
of some MVFR visibility restrictions late tonight and early on
Wednesday morning.

A west to northwest wind at 5 to 10 knots into this evening should
become light and variable for tonight. A west wind at 10 to 15 knots
is forecast to develop for Wednesday. The wind may gust to 20 or 25
knots at that time.

Wed night thru thu night...Showers and Tstms may bring lower
 cigs/vsbys thru the period. Svr tstms possible from the Delaware
 valley and areas south.
Fri thru Sun...VFR conditions expected.


We have adjusted the Small Craft Advisory. We are no longer
anticipating wind gusts in excess of 25 knots except near
thunderstorms into this evening. However, the southwest to south
fetch may cause waves on our ocean waters to build near 5 feet for a
time. As a result, we have posted a Small Craft Advisory for seas.
It is in effect from our waters off Manasquan Inlet to Fenwick
Island until 900 am Wednesday.

wed night thru thu night...Mostly sub-sca conditions. Some low end
 SCA seas across the srn waters Wed night and Thu. Tstms with
 local higher winds and seas expected.
Fri thru Sun...Mostly sub-sca conditions with fair weather.


An eastern swell with an 8 to 10 second period will continue to
create a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents
into this evening from Point Pleasant Beach, New Jersey down to
Fenwick Island, Delaware.

We are expecting to lose the easterly swell tonight and the
prevailing swell should be from the south on Wednesday. As a result,
we are anticipating a low risk at that time for the New Jersey shore
and the Delaware Beaches.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 9 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ451>455.


Near Term...Iovino/Johnson
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...O`Hara
Marine...Iovino/O`Hara is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.