Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 191830
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, REACHING THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT
AND PROGRESS OUT TO SEA DURING SUNDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION INTO EARLY AND MID NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CROSSING
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN UPPER AIR FEATURE AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING A WEALTH OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY... THE
LATEST HRRR DOES SHOW SOME RADAR RETURNS OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER CURRENT LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DRY LAYER FROM 700-800 MB ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EVEN WITH
THAT SAID A FEW SPRINKLES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE UPDATED GRIDS. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES A BIT WITH THIS
UPDATE BASED ON THE CLOUD COVER AND 16Z METARS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY OR SERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.
THE 00Z GFS AND EC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT...BUT CONFID IN THIS IS LIMITED ATTM. WE WILL
JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THERE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH MID/UPPER 60S. UP NORTH...LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL, PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND
AND TO START OFF THE NEW WEEK, BUT INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK, ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHWRS AND
TSTORMS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK. FOR SUNDAY, WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EDGING EAST AND AWAY FROM THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA. WITH THIS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY TO OUR SOUTH, WE EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED SHWRS INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY MIDDAY BEFORE THE WEAK LOW PULLS
FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
OUR REGION MONDAY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY SHOULD BE HELD OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
INTO TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO CREEP UP AS HIGH
PRESSURE EDGES EAST AND OFFSHORE WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE REGION AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. INSTABILITY
WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON, AND WE
HAVE KEPT SOME ISOLATED TSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND EASTERN PA.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST. FORECAST 850/925 MB
TEMPERATURES SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS AS FORECAST
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AROUND 100 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A SOMEWHAT BETTER
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL EXIST FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH MORE INSTABILITY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL LEE-SIDE TROUGH SETTING UP.

THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER NOTICEABLY WARM AND MUGGY DAY, WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS
REMAINING WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO
YIELD THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCATTERED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD FRONT NEARING OUR REGION.
FROM THERE, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AND OFFSHORE IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME
FRIDAY, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THEN BUILDING EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FOR FRIDAY. WE
TOOK A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE AND CONTINUITY FOR FRIDAY WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPS, WINDS, AND DIMINISHING PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10 KT RANGE OVER THE TAF SITES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THEN AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH NEAR THE
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SPEED AS THE
GRADIENT RELAXES JUST A BIT. THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY, BUT CEILING HEIGHTS
WON`T BE LOW ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN TO THE AVIATION
COMMUNITY. THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO
TIME....AND PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT..BUT THE
CHANCE OF EITHER ONE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME
SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT TO EARLY AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG/HAZE
AND ALSO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE ON THE WATERS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST TODAY...THEN E TO
SE TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 3
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1-2 FT OVER DEL BAY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BUT CHCS REMAIN RATHER LOW ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA






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