Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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567
FXUS61 KPHI 230845
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
445 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross our region tonight, then high pressure
builds across the Northeast over the weekend into early Monday. A
warm front should lift north of our area later Monday, with a cold
front slowly crossing our region Tuesday and Wednesday. This front
may then stall near the coast Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning through sunrise...clear cool and calm nw NJ and
much of e PA with spotty countryside fog. Remainder from vcnty
I-95 eastward low clouds.

Today... Becoming sunny and very warm with max temps 88 or 89 in
PHL/ABE and mid-upper 80s elsewhere. MAX temps may occur today
between 4 and 5PM when the BL temp is warmest. winds become light
west. Max temps are forecast generally 10-15F above normal but
below record. Wont be surprised at isolated 90F this afternoon at
the typically hotter I-95 spots...maybe near KSMQ.

Forecast basis is a 50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos except
as noted which in this case...raising guidance max temps based on
GFS2m temp of 85 at 18z and an expected 17C at 850MB.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Cold frontal passage from north to south. Have doubts about CFP
passage prior to 6 AM fm KESN to KGED southward. Low or mid clouds
and a briefly gusty ne wind to 20 mph accompany the CFP. It`s possible
the max temp for the calendar day of Sept 24 will occur at 1 am in
a few spots around PHL (74-75F). Small chance of a shower or isolated
tstm near and north of I-78 this evening. NssL WRF finally ran and
posted and it has less than my pops and so, confidence on any shower
activity where now forecast, is below average! Pwat 1.4-1.5 inches
this evening dries to .5 inches I-80 north by morning so that
mins KMPO to KFWN and KMPO may again be near 50.

Forecast basis:50 50 blend of the 00z/23 gfs/nam mos guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Summary...A taste of Fall Saturday and especially Sunday and Monday
before perhaps some moderation occurs. The chance of rain next
week highly depends on the strength and timing of a cold front
near the middle of next week.

The synoptic setup is comprised of amplified flow over the weekend
which then carries through much of next week. A strong upper-level
trough will be across the Northeast over the weekend while a closed
low traverses the Plains and Midwest. There continues to be model
differences with the evolution of these, especially the trough
moving across the Plains. This will impact the timing of a cold
front into our area next week. Some ridging should move across our
area Monday, with surface high pressure shifting offshore. Given the
extent of the amplified flow, a slower system would tend to allow
more moisture return northward. We used a model/continuity blend
Saturday into Monday, then blended the 00z WPC Guidance into
continuity thereafter. Some adjustments were then made following
additional collaboration with our neighboring offices.

For Saturday and Sunday...A strong upper-level trough slides across
the Northeast. This will push a cold front to our south to start
Saturday as surface high pressure, situated just north of the Great
Lakes to start the day, builds southeastward. This results in a
northeast low-level flow along with deepening cold/dry air
advection. As the cold air advection increases, there appears to be
enough low-level moisture initially remaining in place. This
combined with warmer ocean water may result in an area of low clouds
sliding southward especially across New Jersey and Delaware Saturday
morning with even a shower. As the day wears on, much drier air
should overtake the region and the clouds should thin out from north
to south. As of now, we increased the cloud cover in the morning but
kept the forecast dry. It may be a bit breezy for a time Saturday
especially along the coast ahead of the building surface high.
Sunday should be a true Fall day across the area. There should be
enough subsidence and drying to promote less clouds at night,
therefore both nights should be cool to chilly. Some guidance is
showing the potential for mid to upper 30s Saturday night and
especially Sunday night across portions of the Poconos and far
northwestern New Jersey. If this occurs then patchy frost is
possible, especially if high cloudiness holds off during Sunday
night.

For Monday and Tuesday...A very amplified pattern is forecast with a
trough departing New England and another strong trough moving across
the Plains and Midwest. In between, a ridge arrives in our area
during Monday. This will drive surface high pressure over our area
to start Monday before shifting offshore into Tuesday. Given some
warm air advection, a warm front may move to our north later Monday
although lift looks limited with it. The guidance differs some with
the evolution of a strong closed low that moves across the Great
Lakes and toward the Northeast. Some guidance breaks off the energy
and keeps a second closed low back across the southwestern states
and into the southern Plains. We leaned more toward the setup of
following a closed low across the north, which is closest to the WPC
Guidance. This evolution will determine the timing and strength of a
cold front that eventually arrives in our area. As of now, we have
it arriving Tuesday however given the uncertainty only low POPs were
carried. Some temperature moderation should occur Tuesday ahead of
the front.

For Wednesday and Thursday...There is the potential for a strong
trough or closed low to arrive in the region during this time frame.
The details are less certain given the rather amplified pattern that
is advertised by the model guidance. If the closed low idea pans
out, the timing could be slower which will also impact the movement
of a surface cold front. As of now, we bring the front slowly
through Wednesday and it may stall for a time near the coast
Thursday. There is the chance for a decent ribbon of enhanced
moisture and lift to shift eastward ahead of the trough/closed low
and associated cold front, however the overall evolution and
therefore details are of lower confidence and thus the POPs were
kept on the low side.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning prior to 12z...cigs 500-1500 ft vcnty KACY
KMIV KPNE/KTTN with VFR conditions elsewhere. calm or light
northwest wind.

Today after 12z....VFR few cirrus with the wind becoming west or
southwest this afternoon around 5 to 10 kt.

Tonight...VFR to start then sct-bkn layers aoa 2500 ft spread southward
with a wind shift to ne and gusty to 20 kt for an hour subsequent
to a cold frontal passage. There is a slight chance of rain showers
with the front at KABE and KTTN late but not in the TAF attm due
to very low forecast confidence.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday and Sunday...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday morning
especially south and east of PHL, then VFR through Sunday as drier
air arrives. North-northeast winds 10-15 knots Saturday, becoming
less than 10 knots later in the day and through Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR overall. Some showers are possible on
Tuesday. Winds becoming southeast at 10 knots or less Monday, then
southwest on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines today. We may need an sca for ne wind gusts 25
kt in ANZ450-51 and seas building to 5 ft there after 08z/24.

Otherwise winds becoming westerly for a time today (after sunrise) then
south southwest this afternoon (sea breeze influence) before shifting
light northwest this evening and then north northeast gusty to at
least 20 kt behind the cold frontal passage early Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...
A cold air advection surge in the wake of a cold front within a
north-northeast wind Saturday may result in 25 knot gusts and seas
near 5 feet. However, this may be short in duration and therefore
held off on issuing a Small Craft Advisory at this time. The
conditions overall then Sunday through Tuesday are anticipated to be
below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

RIP CURRENTS...
The probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
today is low.

Weekend...There is a chance of a moderate risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents on at least one of the weekend days, as a 3
to 4 foot east-southeast swell from Tropical Cyclone Karl arrives
along with a gusty northeast wind. Karl`s slow development may
result in a lower swell which would help reduce the potential risk
for the formation of dangerous rip currents.

&&

.CLIMATE...
September continues on its way to a top 10 warmest September through
most of our forecast area, and...for the 3rd consecutive month!

Today probably is the last for 80s the rest of the month.

Next, how many below normal days will occur between the 24th-30th.
Right now, guidance has considerable variability suggesting a range
of 2-4 days. This still is not likely to be enough to prevent a
third consecutive top ten warmest month for much of the NWS Mount
Holly forecast area. In this case a probable second consecutive
top 5 warmest month in the period of record for PHL and ABE (not
likely a top 5 for ACY).

We`ve run the actual numbers through the 22nd, and then our 330 am
forecast from today through the 30th.

While there is considerable run to run and operational model
variability on outcomes Wednesday through Friday...it all
averages out as follows at several long term climate sites,
representing both urban and countryside in our forecast area.

Philadelphia: Projects about 4.5 degrees above the monthly normal
of 69.1. This will be a #4 or #5 warmest September on record for
Philadelphia.

Philadelphia September average temperature rankings

75.4 -1881
74.5 -2015
74.1 -1931
74.1 -1930
73.8 -2005
73.7 -2016 #5
72.9 -2010
72.9 -1921
72.4 -1900

Philly ranked #7 warmest July followed by a warmest ever August
(in the POR dating back to 1874).

Atlantic City: where there can be greater variability due to the
sea breeze cooling during the afternoon and the radiative cooling
at night, is still projecting near a 71.5 degree monthly average
temperature, or 4+ degrees above the monthly normal of 67.2. Odds
are locking into a top 4 to 8 warmest September in the period of
record dating back to 1874. Atlantic City recorded a #7 warmest
July and warmest ever August.

73.3 - 1961
72.8 - 1881
72.3 - 1931 and 1930
71.7 - 1921
71.6 - 2015
71.5 - 1933
71.4 - 2016 but low confidence that it will remain #7
71.3 - 2005
71.0 - 2010
70.6 - 2011 and 1906

Allentown: projects to a monthly average of near 69.6 degrees, or
almost 6 degrees above the monthly normal of 63.9 and a highly
probable 4th or 5th warmest September on record. Allentown ranked
8th warmest July and #2 warmest August.

70.8 - 1961
70.3 - 1980
69.7 - 2015
69.6 - 2016 #4
69.4 - 1931
68.7 - 2005
68.2 - 1952

Allentown and Philadelphia have so far recorded only 1 day below
normal through the first 22 days of September, TTN only 2 days
below normal and RDG 3 days below normal.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Gorse
Near Term...Drag 445
Short Term...Drag 445
Long Term...Gorse
Aviation...Drag/Gorse 445
Marine...Drag/Gorse 445
Climate...445



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