Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 141317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TODAY,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE W TODAY AND BRING
A SUNNY SKY, DRY WX AND VERY PLEASANT CONDS TO THE REGION.
MORNING SC FAR NW NJ AND E PA SHOULD DISSIPATE MIDDAY AS DRIER
MIXES IN FROM THE NORTH...DITTO SC FIELDS ALONG THE COAST. A
LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS FROM TIME TO TIME.

TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A NW TO N WIND IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MORNING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH DIMINISHING THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THEREFORE, A CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT WIND AND COOL TEMPS IS
ANTICIPATE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S, WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES TO OUR
EAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR
COOLER 60S IN THE POCONOS.

GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT, A RATHER QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY,
PASSING OVER OUR REGION INTO EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. OVERALL, THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW AS COMPARED TO THE GFS,
WITH POSSIBLY A LITTLE MORE PRECIP AFFECTING OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MOST OF
THE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN THE 06 TO 12Z
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ACROSS OUR REGION, AND WE HAVE LIKELY POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD BEFORE SCALING THEM BACK FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO
EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD
FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME, WE MOSTLY TOOK A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND, KEEPING A
PRECIP-FREE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK
TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...NNW WIND G 15-18 KT DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST BY 21Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 2500 FT NW
NJ AND E PA WILL DISSIPATE MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES IN FROM THE
NORTH. SMALL CHC OF SCT SC ALONG THE COAST VCNTY KACY AND THAT TOO
WILL DISSIPATE. OTRW VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS...ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A FEW CIRRUS. LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 19Z FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS.

SCA LOWER DE BAY WILL BE PERMITTED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z WHEN LEWES
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO 22KT OR LESS.

QUIET TONIGHT AND NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK... MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-
MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL LOOK TO REMAIN AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WILL GO WITH MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR NJ, BUT CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...






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