Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
FXUS61 KPHI 140735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 AM EDT Fri Oct 14 2016
High pressure will build southeastward into the region today and
remain over the Eastern United States through the early part of
next week. A cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes and
New England toward the region by the middle of next week. This front
will be followed by another cold front that will move toward the
region by the end of next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early this morning...caa with scattered gusts 15-20 mph under clear
skies. Lows are forecast to fall into the 40s in much of our
region, with some upper 30s possible, especially up in the
northwest part of our forecast area...northwest of I-95.
Today...Sunny during the morning and then the northern fringe of
the Ohio Valley cirrus shield at 0630z/14 arrives in the afternoon...
mainly south of I-78. Highs a few degrees below normal. PHL: 65F
or 66F should do it. gusty north winds 15-20 mph during the morning
decreases during the afternoon with some easterly flow developing
later in the day.
This part of the forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/14 GFS/NAM
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A frost advisory will be issued by 330 am for the tier of counties
adjacent the four that had their growing season ended this past
Tuesday morning-October 11. That will include Berks (mainly east
part), the Lehigh Valley into Hunterdon-Morris counties of nw NJ;
and also on the coastal Plain of NJ (pine barrens cranberry bog
areas: Ocean, Burlington, interior Atlantic, Cumberland counties.
This for the 05z-13z time frame, most of the frost 09z-12z/15.
Issuing in two segments to permit simpler addition of counties by
geography, if needed, later today. GFS 2m temps are so much more
helpful this year and will be relied heavily on the 00z/14 version
which is consistent with the 18z/13 GFS. Fcstg frost wherever the
2m temps are forecast to be 35F or less late this coming night.
Evening cirrus south portion of the forecast area clears southeastward,
only lingering over southern delaware at 06z/15 (using GFS/NAM/ECMWF
250-350MB RH field). Nearly calm wind with bl wind under 10 kts and
pwat near where it is this morning...basically .2 to .35 inches.
This forecast was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/14 GFS/NAM MOS, except
biased to the colder of temperature values (mav). These temps
about 3 to 6F below normal.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Friday through Sunday:
High pressure will remain anchored in place through Sunday and will
lead to mostly sunny skies through the weekend. Winds will start
to pick up from the southeast on Saturday before becoming
southerly or southwesterly on Sunday on the backside of the high.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph. Bufkit analysis does dhow
the potential though for some wind gusts from 15-20 mph during
the afternoon hours on Sunday. With the warm air advection,
temperatures will warm each day with highs in the 60`s on Saturday
and into the 70`s for Sunday. Temperatures will likely be a few
degrees warmer than ensemble/MET/MAV guidance by Sunday due to the
warm air advection and increasing modeled 925 mb temperatures to
around 15C by Sunday.
Sunday night through Wednesday:
A frontal boundary will be moving southeast into the Great lakes
and New England Sunday night but stay north of our region through
the early part of next week. The closest pass of the front to our
region will be in the Sunday night to Monday time period. Enough
lift and moisture looks to be present for some scattered showers
Right now the majority of ensemble data shows the majority of
shower activity to our north through Monday but has the potential
for the northern portions to see a few passing showers. Will
continue a low chance of showers to account for the possibility.
Warm air advection with southwesterly flow will be the theme
through Wednesday as well. High pressure will still be located
over the southeastern United States with continued warm air
advection on the backside of the high. Trended several degrees than
ensemble guidance and the National Model Blend, particularly by
Wednesday. Several factors such as 500 mb ridging several standard
deviations above normal, modeled 925 mb temps over 20C and the
potential for muted extremes in the ensemble guidance led us to
trend warmer with the temperatures. By Wednesday, modeled 925 mb
temps suggest highs could be in the low 80`s. Highs Monday and
Tuesday should end up in the 70`s to around 80 after early
morning temperatures in the 50`s.
Wednesday night and Thursday:
Another cold front will move eastward toward the region in this
time period but may be slow to advance due to the strong mid
level ridge in the southeast. Moisture will likely overrun the
boundary and bring the region a chance for more showers.
Temperatures will cool off some with the front, clouds and rain in
.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12z...VFR clear. northwest to north winds with scattered gusts
15 to 20 kt.
After 12z today...VFR clear during the morning and VFR thin cirrus
aoa 20000 ft developing during the afternoon. North winds with scattered
gusts to 15 kt during the morning with the wind turning light northeast
to east during the late afternoon.
Tonight...VFR cirrus becoming clear from northwest to southeast by
05z/15. nearly calm wind.
Saturday through Sunday...VFR. Winds generally under 10 knots from
the south. Some wind gusts around 15 knots from the southwest are
possibile on Sunday.
Sunday night through Monday night...Mainly VFR. A passing shower
may lead to brief intervals of lower conditions for KABE and
points north. West to southwest winds under 10 knots.
Tue thru Wed...VFR. Southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. Some
gusts to 15 knots are possibile on Tuesday.
SCA continues as previously advertised and verifying with 27-32kt
gusts around 07z/14 (3AM EDT) from lower De Bay to 44065.
Extended lower DE Bay SCA to 14z (10AM EDT).
Northerly wind gusty 25-30 kt over the open water where ssts are
still in the 60s (17-18C) and the boundary layer temps down near
10c. Considerable momentum transfer. Wind speeds are forecast to
decrease to 10 to 15 knots Friday afternoon and to less than 10
kt Friday night.
Meanwhile, long period swells from Hurricane Nicole will continue to
affect the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware through Friday.
Wave heights on our ocean waters are 4 to 6 feet then should subside
below advisory threshold sometime this Friday evening. Waves on
Delaware Bay are 2 to 4 feet this morning then subside this afternoon.
Seas and winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Wind
gusts may reach or slightly exceed 15 knots on both Sunday and
Tuesday. Waveheights are currently modeled in the three to four
foot range into early next week.
While astronomical tides will run high Friday the upcoming
weekend, there are no strong weather systems to lead us to
think that any tidal flooding will occur. We will continue to
monitor this tonight and Friday.
Near record warmth is possibile Tuesday and Wednesday the 18th and
the 19th. Here are a list of the record highs for both days.
OCT 18th OCT 19th
PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ060>062-
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NJZ008-009-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ431.