Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 241807 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 207 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A NICE FALL DAY IS IN PROGRESS...PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE BUT A LITTLE WINDY WITH TEMPS MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY NW WINDS 30-35 MPH POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE 25 TO 30 MPH ELSEWHERE... LEAST WIND OVER THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. TONIGHT...NICE...SEASONABLY CHILLY. GUSTY NW WINDS PRIOR TO SUNSET DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET. EVENING CIRRUS CLEARS OVERNIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS FROM MID TO UPPER 30S TYPICALLY COLD SPOTS OF E PA AND NJ INCLUDING KMPO..KSMQ AND KMIV TO MID 40S URBAN CENTERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
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SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON PORTIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ...BASICALLY KRDG-KABE-K12N NWWD. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THOSE NUMBERS OF THIS AFTERNOON...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER PROBABLY AT LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT AOA 4500 FT. NW WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT. TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT DURING THE EVENING CLEARS LATE. NW WIND GUSTS QUICKLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 15 KT. SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 5000 FT MID OR LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE POCONOS TO MAYBE NEAR KABE/KRDG. WEST WIND GUST 20 KT DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND. SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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THE CURRENT SCA MAY BE CANCELLED AT 310 PM WITH A NEW ONE PROPOSED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY...WEST WIND INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE 5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12, 2015, WEATHER PERMITTING. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 206 SHORT TERM...DRAG 206 LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 206 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 206 EQUIPMENT...

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