Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 231929 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 329 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND OR DELAWARE AT MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WAS OVER NEW JERSEY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE POCONO REGION. THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY SOUTHWESTWARD. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME; ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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&& .MARINE...
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WIND SPEEDS WERE DECREASING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL LET THE GALE WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT UNTIL 600 PM ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE AT MID AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...IOVINO LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE

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