Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 242345 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 745 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, SLOWLY DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR EAST, KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE AS THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE. ONLY AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT AN SHOULD END UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR EAST. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR THICKNESSES TO INCREASE AND 925/850 MB TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS RISE AND PW VALUES INCREASE, THERE WILL BE A LACK OF VERTICAL MOISTURE AND WITHOUT ANY SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE DURING THE DAY, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AND PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AROUND MIDWEEK BUT IS FAIRLY WEEK AND WILL START TO DISSIPATE AS IT CROSSES THE REGION ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE WEEK, CROSSING THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY STALLING ACROSS OR NEAR OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 TEMPS AROUND 16-18C, WHICH TRANSLATES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. MOST STAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND KEEPS THE HIGHS IN THE 80S. BEST CHANCE FOR BREAKING INTO THE 90S LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE NEAR THE URBAN AREAS AND PLACES INLAND. PLACES ALONG THE COAST WILL REMAIN COOLER AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BREAK DOWN, WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEK, THE AIR WILL BE HOT AND HUMID. WITH THIS BEING THE FIRST REAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS OF THE SEASON, WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT HEADLINES. OVERALL, THE WEEK WILL BE DRY BUT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY, WE WILL SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASE FROM MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN AND PUSH EASTWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO PLUSH INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE HOT AND HUMID AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION. PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WHICH INDICATES THAT DEVELOPING STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. ANOTHER STICKY NIGHT ON TAP AS WE WONT SEE MUCH COOLING IF THE FRONT IS UNABLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. WITH THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE HIGH STILL LOCATED OFFSHORE, THE FRONT MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FEATURE. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. FOR THE 00Z TAFS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MIST RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY, AS DEPICTED IN GFS TIME/HEIGHT DISPLAYS. HOWEVER, THIS MODEL SEEMS TO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS ARE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEREFORE, REMOVED MENTION OF BR AT KRDG. WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. DIRECTION COULD BE VRB FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH 06Z, BUT WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20KT POSSIBLE. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY. REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
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&& .MARINE... WE EXPECT SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD CLOSE TO 5 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN INVERSION OVER THE COOL WATERS, WINDS AROUND 800-1000 FEET ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 40 KNOTS. THIS MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND 25-30 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WE`VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING 2 PM MONDAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW, SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .RIP CURRENTS...
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POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE THIS WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS. BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON. RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE). FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW RISK AGAIN TOMORROW, EARLY SEASON FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS. WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE! PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>452. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/MEOLA MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...

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