Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 301931 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 331 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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Tropical moisture remained over eastern New Jersey and the Delmarva Monday afternoon. This moisture will shift off the coast this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will track through the region late Monday night into early Tuesday. High pressure will follow for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region on Friday or Saturday. The remainder of the forecast period looks to be unsettled due to another approaching low pressure system.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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The shield of showers and isolated tstms across the Delmarva and srn NJ will slowly work offshore this evening and overnight. A cold front will cross the area tonight. Clouds were infrequent across the wrn/nrn areas much of the afternoon...but clouds will increase over these areas this evening as sct tstms ahead of the cold front will approach these areas. We have chc pops for these tstms this evening. It doesn`t appear that the those tstms will affect the Delaware valley or areas south/east of that this evening. Fog should develop across most areas tonight. We will indicate that in the grids/fcst with the patchy wording for now...but I could see the possibility of a more widespread fog forming. Vsbys will probably remain highs enough to preclude Dense fog wording however. Low tonight...mild with mid/upper 60s in most areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure will arrive across the area Tuesday. Skies will be mostly sunny across most of the region with some cloudiness across the Delmarva and extreme srn NJ. We will continue with slgt chc or low chc pops across these areas...since some of the low level moisture from Mondays system will not yet have exited these areas. It will be a warm day with highs in the low/mid 80s across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Overview...The period starts with a cold front exiting stage right in the atlantic, with another weak cold front well to our north situated west to east from the Great Lakes east to Maine. This front will eventually lift north away from the region as surface high pressure and mid-level ridging builds in. High pressure will be the main story Wednesday through at least Thursday, maybe into Friday. A cold front is forecast to cross the area on Friday or Saturday. For the remainder of the weekend and into early next week, a deep trough is forecast to settle over the east as strong ridging develops over the Rockies. Temperatures...For reference, normals for PHL are in the upper 70s and upper 50s. For the period, temperatures will be near or above normal. Depending on how deep and fast the east coast trof becomes established, the end of the period could transition into the below normal range. Precipitation...Small POP showers have been been painted in the grids for Tuesday night across the southern zones. Currently, dry conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday, but keep an eye open over the ocean to see if any stratus and/or fog develops and gets pushed onshore. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late in the week with the cold front. Then the mid-level trof is forecast to take over and provide the region with unsettled weather. Winds...Winds will become northeast Tuesday night and go east on Wednesday and then southeast before the frontal passage. Winds will go northwest behind the late week cold front, then southwest as the trof settles in. It could be a bit gusty on Wednesday and Thursday, especially near the coast. Impacts...The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR flying conditions have returned to the nrn/wrn taf sites and into the Delaware Valley as of the early afternoon...while the lower conditions remain across KMIV/KACY. Lower CIGS could still creep north into the Delaware Valley again so we have maintained that possibility in tempo groups. The shield of rain which has been across the Delmarva and srn NJ much of the morning is showing little movement towards the offshore. Sct tstms have developed across nrn PA. The rest of this afternoon and early evening should feature a continuation of slow improvement...especially s/e. A few showers may arrive at krdg/kabe later on...more tempo groups in the 18z tafs. Overnight...showers to the s/e will end and fog should develop in many areas. Tue...VFR expected after early morning fog. Winds will become nw/n at 5 to 10 knots Tue after dawn. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Tuesday night. Thursday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, except MVFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE...
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The only significant hazard for the waters continues to the the areas of dense fog. I have both extended the end time of the dense fog advisory and expanded the areal coverage. The advisory now continues over night and includes the lower Delaware bay. The moisture enriched atmosphere and the chilly sea temps will provide the favorable conditions for this sea fog. Conditions will improve Tue once a cold front crosses the waters and drier air arrives. Winds and seas should remain sub-sca thru the period...although seas may be close to 5 ft for a short period this evening. showers expected tonight decreasing in coverage late. OUTLOOK... Tue night through Saturday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected through the period, although a persistent and solid 3 to 4 sea on the ocean seems likely through much of the period. East winds could get gusty on Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers are possible across the southern waters on Tuesday night. No precip expected Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Storm totals from yesterday and overnight show greatest amounts across northern Berks county then NE up across the srn Poconos. A second precip max exists across the Delaware Valley NE into North Central NJ. There were some 2-3 inch max amts in the northern band and 3-4 inch amts in the Delaware Valley band. Further south, it`s been raining much of the day across the southern NJ plain and the lower 2/3rds of Delmarva. The rain will continue into this evening. We`re already seeing some isolated 1-2 inch radar estimated amounts over the sandy soil with more to come. A cold front will cross the area tonight and Tue morning. This feature will bring an end to the showers/tstms from W to E thru the period.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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Wilmington`s monthly rainfall now is around 7.3 inches which makes this the 4th wettest month of May in the period of record there. Philadelphia`s monthly rainfall now is around 6.65 inches, which ranks this the 10th wettest month of May on record. ACY only needed an inch of rain these last 2 days of the month to rank as a top 10 wettest month of May. Additionally, the 1.06 inch total so far today at Wilmington, as of 6 am, is just shy of the daily record (1.10 in 1983). Daily records began in 1894. Monday, May 30th ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 We are having to estimate rainfall at Mount Pocono due to a problem with the sensor.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-450>455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Kruzdlo Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Drag/Kruzdlo/O`Hara Aviation...Kruzdlo/O`Hara Marine...Kruzdlo/O`Hara Hydrology...Drag/Kruzdlo Climate...Drag

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