Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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372 FXUS61 KPHI 301344 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 944 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will cross the region today. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday, crossing the region Friday night and then moving offshore Saturday morning. High pressure will then build in from the west and persist through Monday. A warm front will begin to move into the area on Tuesday, pushing north of the region on late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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930 AM ESTF: Forecast looks very good...raise a few temps 1-2F along and w of I-95 and also warmed temps this morning faster than previously forecast then leveled off around 18z. A very nice early summer day in progress. scattered stratocu this afternoon. southwest wind gusting 15 mph this afternoon with southeast sea breezes developing along the coast. Tonight...Isolated showers and thunderstorms should begin to move into our region, mainly after midnight. Weak instability burst. pwat increases to 1.6" by 12z Fri PHL south (up from the near 1 inch of today). Fog or stratus may develop toward dawn Friday. light south wind.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Friday...the primary thunderstorm event should develop eastward near and south of the Mason-Dixon line late in the afternoon with what I think is decent potential for sct svr storms arriving Delmarva sometime after 5PM. That is where modeled MLCape is 1400+J, multimodel TT50, KI pooled 34+ and 0-6Km Bulk shear is 35-45 kt. south to southwest wind. More later today on the day as a whole but mid 80s looks good. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Friday night...areas of showers and thunderstorms eventually decay-exit eastward off the coast as PWAT decreases from near 1.6" 00z/Saturday to under 1 inch by 12z Saturday. southwest wind becoming west or northwest late subsequent to the cold frontal passage. Saturday and Sunday...Expect generally dry days through the weekend as high pressure starts pushes in from the west. The cold front drops to the south of the area and stalls. This boundary will act as a conveyor belt for showers and thunderstorms. Current guidance keeps the boundary to our south and as a result we expect our region to remain dry for the weekend. Should the boundary push a little to the north, we could see some isolated activity across our southernmost areas. Monday, July 4th...The high pressure starts to shift to the east of the area on Monday. As a result we switch from a westerly wind to more of southerly wind again and we will once again see moisture increase across the region. While the majority of the area should remain dry, there is a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms to develop, mainly across southern NJ, DE and the eastern shore of Maryland as the stalled boundary to our south starts to lift northward as a warm front. Tuesday and Wednesday...The stalled boundary starts to lift northward as a warm front on Tuesday. The guidance takes the front into our area and showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. The guidance is all over the place as to what happens next. The front should push north of the area late Tuesday into Wednesday but it may stall or wash out and we could remain with unsettled weather across the region through Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with sct clouds aoa 6000 ft spreading newd during the day. Light northwest to north wind this morning becomes southwest this afternoon with southeasterly sea breezes probable by 20z at KACY/KMIV. Confidence: well above average. Tonight...VFR to start but MVFR or IFR conditions in st/fog/haze possible after 06z/1. isolated showers or thunderstorms possible after 06z/1. For now, chances are too small to include in the TAFS, but MVFR conditions will be possible if any showers or storms move over a TAF site. Light southerly wind. Confidence: Average since there is uncertainty regarding extent of any showers and st/fog development late tonight. Friday...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms, especially late day. Thinking that scattered severe thunderstorms will be developing eastward across the Delmarva into southern NJ sometime after 21z/1. South to southwest wind. Confidence: above average. OUTLOOK... Friday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 4000 ft with sct showers and thunderstorms ending by 06z/2 with possible mvfr fog where it rains late Friday afternoon/evening. Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest wind around 10 knots or less. Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. North to northwest winds becoming west to southwest. Monday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria today through Friday. A few gusts to 20 kt are possible on the coastal waters later this afternoon as the sea breeze develops, but should stay below 25 kt. RIP CURRENTS...We are forecasting a LOW risk today, but it may border on low end of moderate during mid and late afternoon if a strong and more onshore wind develops, especially Ocean and Monmouth counties. We have a little room to give today and remain with low risk since low tide is now and we`re coming up to a late afternoon high tide. There is a tendency for stronger rip currents near low tide when sandbars are exposed and water can pile up behind the bars and then that water needs to flow seaward. Additionally, the swell this morning is about half a foot less than yesterday. Expect a 2 to 2.5 ft ESE swell of 7 to 8 seconds. Rip Current Outlook for Friday...The probable risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents tomorrow is low. (It may border on moderate risk during the afternoon depending on the strength of any onshore flow during the afternoon, especially NJ.) OUTLOOK... Friday night through Monday...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria. Gusty winds possible Friday evening and Monday in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. RIP CURRENTS...Projecting a solid LOW for Saturday with a 3 ft 7sec se swell but an offshore wind. Sunday-Monday-Tuesday projecting a LOW ENHANCED or possibly LOW end of a MODERATE risk where the new moon tends to accentuate tidal fluctuations and thereby increases current strength. The Sunday-Tuesday projection confidence is average. Caution is advised when using a projection this far in advance, since a 1 foot difference in wave height expectation and and/or a significant change in onshore wind can easily change the potential for dangerous rip current formation. The Atlantic Basin continues quiet for the next week or so and so that bodes well for continuing the low risk, or possibly moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents. Most fatalities from rip currents occur at unguarded beach and in our area, after the beach patrols go home (dinner hour). Not only that the vast majority of fatalities are on low-moderate risk days.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag/Johnson 944 Short Term...Drag/Johnson Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Johnson/Meola Marine...Drag/Johnson/Meola 944

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