Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280904 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
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THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM, COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET. BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF THOSE AREAS. A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES. COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD. MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN. THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.
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&& .MARINE...
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SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. OUTLOOK.. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING. INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH. POR / SITE / FEB 28 1872 / KPHL / 9 1934 1874 / KACY / 2 1934 1894 / KILG / -5 1934 1922 / KABE / -10 1934 1869 / KRDG / 3 1934 1865 / KTTN / 1 1934 1948 / KGED / 8 1950 1901 / KMPO / -15 1907 KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972. NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS. NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN. THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE. POR / SITE / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK 1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895) 1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936) 1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963) PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE). THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015 TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES. POR / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F) 1872 / KPHL / 25.5 / 35.7 / -10.2 / 30.9 1874 / KACY / 24.9 / 35.3 / -10.4 / 30.2 1894 / KILG / 24.7 / 35.1 / -10.4 / 30.3 1922 / KABE / 19.0 / 30.7 / -11.7 / 25.9 IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015. IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY. THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST JANUARY OR FEBRUARY. ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS: PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873. ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874. WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IOVINO NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...IOVINO AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG

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