Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 151946 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 346 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A RIDGE FROM THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AT 3 PM...THE COLD FRONT WAS ALONG A LINE FROM W CHESTER CO THROUGH FAR NORTHERN WARREN CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NNE, AND ARRIVE ALONG THE I 95 CORRIDOR WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR, AND BE AT THE SHORE BY 6 PM EDT. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY, AND EXPECT THE LAST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHTNING TO BE WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, PRIMARILY CONFINED TO DELMARVA WHERE CLOUD TOPS MAY BE A BIT HIGHER. THOUGH LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT, DO NOT EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR LONG, AS UPSTREAM OBS HAVE SHOWN DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO THE LOWER 30S WITH IN A FEW HOURS OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH A CONTINUED MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN SE PA AND NW NJ. THE NEXT CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES. THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SKIES WILL CLEAR AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. AS SUCH, GUIDANCE CAME IN LOWER FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED THIS TREND IN DECREASING THE LOWS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE FREEZE WARNING NOW INCLUDES THE NJ COASTAL ZONES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE WARNING WILL SEE A FREEZE AS WELL, HOWEVER, IT IS STILL EARLIER THAN THE MEDIAN LAST FREEZE DATE, SO WILL NOT ISSUE A WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW, DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY. THUS, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S. STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MEX AND MAV GUIDANCE && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE EXPECT A PRECIP-FREE FORECAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE A IT WARMER THAN TUE NIGHT...BUT STILL COLD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FREEZE WATCH HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. A SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TO BRING IN SOME CLOUDS AND TOUCH OFF SOME SCT SHOWERS...BUT WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS ONLY AT THE CHC LEVEL FOR NOW. OVERALL...SAT WILL NOT BE TOO BAD A DAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY. MORE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. THIS HIGH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAK DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA MON NIGHT AND LASTING INTO NEXT TUE. WE HAVE SIDED WITH THE WPC FOR THE MOST PART AND GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THE FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT KTTN, KPHL, KPNE, AND KILG BY AROUND 20Z, AND KMIV AND KACY WITHIN 3 HOURS AFTER THAT. WITH THE FRONT, EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD (LESS THAN 1 HR) OF +SHRA ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR AROUND 6 HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS NO LATER THAN 06Z. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY BREEZY OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER 09Z. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...VFR EXPECTED. FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MOSTLY VFR. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 35KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTS NEAR 40KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT THE DELAWARE BAY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM, AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS AFTER 6 PM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. SCA CONDITIONS BOTH FOR WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS COULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...A PERIOD OF MOSTLY LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN...AND SUB-SCA ON DEL BAY. SAT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-070- 071-101>104-106. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR PAZ060-070-101>104-106. NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ012>027. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-027. DE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>003. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR DEZ001>003. MD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON SHORT TERM...JOHNSON LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...JOHNSON/O`HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/O`HARA

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