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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 190713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ALONG IT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF
THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN OFF
THE COAST ON SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM NE PA AND NNJ
IN ASSN WITH THE NE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW E OF
DELMARVA. SHOULD BE A BURST OF NE WIND 15-20 KT ALONG THE COAST
05Z-10Z N TO S AS THIS GRADIENT PRESSES SOUTH. POPS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ESTF UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052PM. PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS E PA AROUND 5 AM THIS MORNING?

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER NE GRADIENT STRATUS OVER FAR SE NJ AND SE DE
AT DAYBREAK CLEARS BY 15Z. DRY NLY FLOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SE SEABREEZES DEVELOPING MOST COASTAL
LOCATIONS DURING MID AND LATE AFTN. EXCEPTION TO THE SUNSHINE
MIGHT BE VCNTY KILG WHERE SC NEAR 5000 FT MAY PERSIST.

THE RACCOON CREEK AT SWEDESBORO IN SW NJ WAS STEADILY RISING BUT
SHOULD CREST JUST AN INCH OR SO BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 8-10 AM THIS
MORNING. NO ACTION AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS BEING MONITORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY AFTN SC CLEARS BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN THE COUNTRYSIDE IS
IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AFTER 08Z THU...ESPECIALLY DEL VALLEY
SEAWARD IN RADIATION COOLING CONDITIONS. ENJOY THIS VERY FINE
SLEEPING WX WED NIGHT. ITS DIFFICULT FOR ME TO FORESEE IT ANY
BETTER FOR MANY- MANY DAYS INTO THE FUTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING OFF THE COAST ON
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...THEN OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS HIGH
SHOULD THEN INFLUENCE WEATHER OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON ITS WESTERN SIDE BRINGS IN WARM AND HUMID AIR.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
EVERYDAY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT MOST OF THE TIME
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME
PATTERN IN THE MID PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS A RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF IN THE
NORMAL RANGE....THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z...MOSTLY VFR WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION FM N
TO S OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING NNE WIND AND A PERIOD OF CIGS
BETWEEN 700 FEET AND 2500 FEET SWEEPING SOUTHWEST THROUGH NJ TO
THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...LEFTOVER IFR/MVFR CIGS KACY SOUTHWARD AT 12Z CLEARS
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING. OTRW VFR WITH SCATTERED CIGS
NEAR 6000 FEET DURING THE DAY. NORTHERLY WIND BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND 10KTS.

TONIGHT...ANY VFR SCT-BKN AT 6000 FT CLEARS DURING THE EVENING.
PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR 09Z THU. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR EXCEPT IN MORNING FOG/HAZE OR
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
PROBABLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH CONCERN FOR A PERIOD OF NEAR SCA CONDITIONS BETWEEN
NOW AND 9 AM EDT THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE S NJ COAST AND
DE COASTS AS THE GRADIENT NE FLOW NORTH OF SFC LOW SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
BEHIND THE SEAWARD DEPARTING DELMARVA SFC LOW. WINDS AT 2AM AT
LEWES DE WERE MARGINALLY SCA...ARD 23 KT GUSTS. MONITORING FOR A
POSSIBLE SHORT FUSE SCA ANZ454-455 AND POSSIBLY LOWER DE BAY
ANZ431.

OUTLOOK...
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CAUTIONS...EVEN IF WE FORECAST A LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF
RIP CURRENTS... LOW DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK!

TO ENSURE SAFETY...ALWAYS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF A LIFEGUARD...
ESPECIALLY FOR WEAK SWIMMERS OR THOSE NOT SKILLED AT SWIMMING IN
THE OCEAN WHICH IS FAR FAR DIFFERENT THAN THE RELATIVE CALM OF POOL
SWIMMING.

ALSO ALCOHOL AND/OR BEING TIRED FOR ANY REASON IS NOT A SAFE MIX
FOR OCEAN SWIMMING.

PARTICIPATING IN A NATIONAL USLA/NWS/SEA GRANT RIP CURRENT MEETING
YESTERDAY...MOST RIP CURRENT RELATED DROWNINGS OCCUR IN 2-3 FT OF
WAVE/SWELL...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE WEATHER IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO OUT
INTO THE OCEAN WATER. UNFORTUNATELY...MANY ARE UNPREPARED HOW TO
HANDLE BEING DRAWN BRIEFLY AWAY FROM THE BEACH SURF ZONE INTO
DEEPER WATER.

DAILY SEMI PERMANENT STRUCTURAL GENERATED CURRENTS ALWAYS PERSIST-
RECUR ALONG JETTIES AND PIERS AND NO ONE SHOULD SWIM THERE WITHOUT
THE SUPERVISION OF A LIFEGUARD.

WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG OUR NJ AND DELAWARE COASTS ARE NEAR OR A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL AS OF JUNE 18.

RISK RIP CURRENT FORMATION PROJECTION THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS LOW
THOUGH IT GETS CLOSE TO MODERATE ON ON SUNDAY ALONG THE NJ COAST
AS APPROACH FULL MOON.

DATA INTO THE PROJECTIONS ARE AS FOLLOW

TODAY.....2 FT 9 SEC 030 13KT
TOMORROW..2 FT 9 SEC 090 10KT
FRIDAY....2 FT 9 SEC 130 9 KT
SATURDAY..2 FT 9 SEC 170 10KT
SUNDAY....2 FT 9 SEC 180 10KT
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
RERGED...PLEASE REVIEW FOR THE DAILY RECORD YESTERDAY!

RERILG "JUNE" MONTHLY RAINFALL WILL POST BY 5 AM.
ILG 9.99 SO FAR...PRIOR RECORD 9.90 IN 2003. POR BACK TO 1894.

PHL 8.31 SO FAR...SECOND WETTEST. RECORD IS 10.06 IN 1938. POR
1872.

ACY 7.19 SO FAR...THIRD WETTEST BEHIND THE 7.57 IN 1935 AND 8.45
IN 1920. POR 1874

ABE 6.47 SO FAR...EIGHTH WETTEST. RECORD 10.51 IN 1938. POR 1922

BTW...YDY-JUNE 18 KMPO .02 AND KRDG ONLY .04! WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WAS COMMON VCNTY KPHL THROUGH S NJ...DE AND E MD. WE KDOV AT 3.59
INCHES.

IT ALSO APPEARS JUNE TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
MORE COMMENT ON THIS AROUND 5 AM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...DRAG/MIKETTA
MARINE...DRAG/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...312A