Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 280114 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 914 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will move across the area late tonight and early on Friday. A backdoor cold front will move across the area Saturday into Saturday night. This front will remain to our south on Sunday, then return as a warm front on Sunday night. Another cold front is expected on Monday night, with a secondary front or surface trough Tuesday. Another cold front is possible Wednesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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A frontal boundary extended across western Pennsylvania and West Virginia this evening. The feature will progress to the east and it should pass through our region late tonight and early on Friday. The showers and thunderstorms with and ahead of the front should continue to weaken during the night as they encounter low level stable air. When the precipitation reaches our region it should be mostly in the form of light rain showers. However, some elevated instability will exist and there may be isolated thunderstorms, as well. A light south to southwest wind is expected tonight. The wind direction is forecast to become west in the wake of the front. Minimum temperatures are anticipated to range from the middle 50s to the lower 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Warm and mostly sunny day expected once front clears the region on Friday. Should see highs at or above 80 degrees for most locations, except along the immediate shoreline and the higher elevations of the Poconos. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A frontal wave will be moving along a stationary front off to the northwest of the area late Friday night and into Saturday morning. This may touch off a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm Friday night into Saturday morning. As it moves northeastward into New England, strong surface high pressure will build in behind it, pushing the frontal boundary southward towards and through the area Saturday night. Out ahead of it though on Saturday, expecting warm temperatures with highs in the 80s along with the chance for a few showers/thunderstorms. SPC has placed part of the area in Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Saturday. Much of the area will then be on the cool side of the boundary on Sunday with northeast low level flow. This will keep temperatures much cooler than on Saturday with highs from 65-70F for most locations, except across portions of Delaware and eastern Maryland where they may try to remain on the warmer side of the boundary. Uncertainty still remains on its position. Chances for additional showers also exist, but thunder threat much lower with stable low levels. Front will then traverse back northward over the region Sunday night into Monday out ahead of a low pressure system pushing through the Great Lakes. This will lead to the redevelopment of southerly flow and rebounding temperatures. Highs Monday should reach back into the 70s to near 80F. The cold front then pushes across the area late Monday and Monday night with showers and possible thunderstorms. Cyclonic flow aloft develops behind the front for Tuesday and Wednesday with a few secondary cold fronts possible. Most areas remain dry, but some instability showers in the colder air aloft are possible, especially across the Poconos and NW NJ. Highs from the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. The next organized system will then be developing across the lower Mississippi Valley during the middle of next week and will push towards the region by late in the week with the next chance of more widespread precipitation. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Conditions were VFR at all eight of our TAF sites at 0100Z. That should continue to be the case for much of the night at KRDG, KPHL, KILG, KMIV and KACY until a front approaching from the west brings MVFR ceilings and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between about 0600Z and 1200Z. The chance for thunder is too low to include in the TAFs. The persistent southeast flow may bring some MVFR or IFR ceilings to KTTN, KPNE and KABE before 0600Z, then the chance for showers will be the same as at our other five TAF sites late tonight with the low ceilings continuing until a short time after the front passes. The frontal boundary is anticipated to move across our TAF sites between about 0900Z and 1100Z with conditions improving to VFR for Friday with only scattered cloud cover expected from mid morning onward. A south to southwest wind around 4 to 8 knots is expected to shift to the west around 6 to 10 knots with the arrival of the front. OUTLOOK... Friday night...VFR early. Patchy fog and low CIGS may develop overnight. Saturday...Becoming VFR during the morning, although chances exist for a few showers and thunderstorms. Conditions may temporarily be reduced with any showers/storms. Saturday night-Sunday night...Low clouds and fog may develop overnight Saturday and continue into Sunday night leading to reduced conditions. Small chance of showers and thunderstorms. Conditions may temporarily be reduced with any showers. Monday...Low conditions in the morning, becoming VFR during the day. A chance of showers thunderstorms during the day, with more likely showers and thunderstorms overnight. Lower conditions possible during the day with any showers or storms, more likely lower conditions overnight. Gusty southwest winds around 25 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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Elevated seas are expected to continue tonight into Friday morning on the Atlantic Coastal waters, generally ranging from 5 to 6 feet. A few gusts near or above 20 kt are possible this evening. The Small Craft Advisory will be extended until 1:00 PM Friday. OUTLOOK... Friday...Winds expected to remain below advisory levels, but seas may remain elevated to advisory levels. Friday night-Sunday night...Seas may approach 5 feet at times, and winds may gust near 20 knots, but conditions expected to remain below advisory levels. Monday...Winds likely to gust 25-30 knots, and seas likely to exceed 5 feet as well leading to Small Craft Advisory conditions. A period of Gale conditions is also possible.
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&& .CLIMATE... **Record or number 2 warmest April on record expected** Presuming our forecast temps these last 4 days of April are accurate, we are assured of a top 2 warmest April on record in much of our forecast area. Sunday is probably the critical day for determining record or not. Below: April projected within the top April average temps, the normal for April and the period of record (POR). This includes todays high and low temperatures through 4 PM. PHL normal 54.0 POR 1874 59.4 1994 59.4 2017? projected tied warmest ever 58.5 1921 58.4 2010 57.9 1941 ABE normal 49.9 POR 1922 56.8 projecting record 56.4 1941 54.7 1994 ACY normal 51.7 POR 1874 57.2 projecting record 56.3 2010 56.1 2011 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 1 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Muccilli Long Term...Muccilli Aviation...Iovino/Muccilli Marine...Iovino/Muccilli Climate...Drag

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