Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281338 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 938 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. SOME STRATO-CU THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON. TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO AREAS. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA SHORT TERM...KLEIN LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA

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