Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 050418 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1218 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY FRIDAY...THEN EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A RAINFREE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THURSDAY THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE. SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER 20 MPH.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
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&& .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 600 AND 1600 FT WITH POCKETS OF 4MI DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS UNDER 15 KT. AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND... GUSTS UNDER 15 KT. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL PROBABLY ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE 330 AM THURSDAY ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT SHOULD OCCUR. OUTLOOK... AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET. THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS THURSDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GAINES/DRAG 1217A NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1217A LONG TERM...GAINES AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO 1217A TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1217A

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