Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 030139 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 939 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE VA-NC BORDER AND TO OUR EAST JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWER OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT WILL DRY OUT. THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT. IF MORE PERSISTENT BREAKS OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN THE COVERAGE OF FOG MAY BE GREATER, ESPECIALLY IF THE BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS THE SAME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST), STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE. ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ARE STABLE EVEN IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE. BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT. THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY. THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN FRONTAL TIMING. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE, TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AT ACY/MIV AROUND SUNSET THIS EVE AS THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ACY). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS; TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LESS THAN 10 KT. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES. MDT CONFIDENCE. SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. OUTLOOK... FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN WATERS. HOWEVER, LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD. SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA ATTM. && .RIP CURRENTS...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ BEACHES TO BE RIGHT AT THE CUSP FOR MODERATE ON FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...KLEIN SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.