Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240738 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 238 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift offshore today. A cold front will move across the area during the day Saturday. High pressure builds across the region Monday, then offshore and to our south Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front is expected later Tuesday into Wednesday, though precipitation may dry out before reaching the east coast. High pressure is expected to briefly build across the area Wednesday night before weakening and lifting north of the area Thursday ahead of the next storm system for the end of the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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The main feature through the near term remains the surface high which remains over the Mid Atlantic. However, through the day, the center of the high is expected to shift northeast, thus allowing winds to shift from westerly to southwesterly and eventually southerly. This slight shift, plus sunny conditions all day, will help start warming trend. Highs are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees higher than yesterday, ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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Overnight, we`ll be in between the departing surface high and the approaching cold front. Clouds well ahead of the front could begin to propagate into our area very late tonight. The light southerly low level flow may temper radiational cooling slightly as compared to the last few nights. Lows are expected to range from the mid 20s to upper 30s.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Fairly quiet weather is expected for most of the extended period through next Thursday, with only a slight chance of isolated showers this weekend. A cold front will move across the area during the day Saturday. Models continue to indicate small chances of precipitation as the front moves across the area. PW values do approach one inch, and there is some enhanced low-mid level moisture forecast as the short wave/vorticity impulse and cold front move across the area. So we will keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast during the day Saturday. Portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey currently have best chance, although it is only about 30%. Northwest flow develops across the area behind the front overnight Saturday night into Sunday. It is possible that some isolated lake effect showers/flurries could make their way across our area Saturday night into early Sunday morning in the northwest flow. As usual, the Poconos have the better chance of any showers. However, the flow from the Great Lakes gets cut off during the day Sunday, so any showers are expected to end during the morning. Temperatures remain above normal Saturday before the front moves through the area, but falls back to near normal or slightly below for Sunday. By Sunday night, high pressure begins to approach from the west then fully builds across the area Monday. The high then pushes offshore and to our south Monday night into Tuesday. This will keep dry weather across the area into early next week. Temperatures are expected to be warm back to above normal Monday through Tuesday as return flow develops. A cold front is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture associated with this front is expected to dissipate as it approaches our area and the frontal passage may end up being precipitation free. Even with the frontal passage, temperatures are forecast to be above normal into Wednesday. High pressure briefly builds across the area Wednesday night, keeping dry conditions. By Thursday, the high lifts to our northeast ahead of an approaching storm system. In fact, a warm front may lift into the area Thursday as an area of low pressure lifts through the Great Lakes region. Therefore, there will be a slight chance for isolated showers during the Thursday time period.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR conditions with hardly any clouds. Wind speeds will be less than 10 KT, but the direction will be shifting from westerly to southwesterly and eventually southerly. High confidence on all aspects of the forecast. Tonight...VFR conditions expected. Mid level clouds may be on the increase very late tonight. Winds will generally be southerly at 5 KT or less, but could become light and variable. High confidence on all aspects of the forecast. OUTLOOK... Saturday-Saturday night...Generally VFR. Isolated showers possible which may occasionally lower conditions. Southwest winds early Saturday, becoming west to northwest and gusting 20-25 knots Saturday night. Moderate to high confidence on VFR conditions. Low to moderate confidence on showers and sub-VFR conditions. High confidence on winds. Sunday-Tuesday...VFR expected. Northwest winds gusting 15-20 knots Sunday and Monday, then southwest winds gusting 15-20 knots Tuesday. High confidence.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas will stay below small craft advisory criteria today and tomorrow. The southeasterly 10 second swell continues through this period. High confidence. OUTLOOK... Saturday...Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, although seas may be around 4 feet at times Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night-Sunday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely behind cold frontal passage. Monday-Monday night...Conditions falling below Small Craft Advisory levels later Monday into Monday night. Tuesday...Conditions may return to Small Craft Advisory levels later on Tuesday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Johnson/Robertson Marine...Johnson/Robertson

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