Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 260408 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1208 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end of this week into the weekend. A backdoor cold front may approach the area from the north this weekend, but should end up remaining to our north. An area of low pressure moving into New England early next week is forecast to bring a cold front across our area around Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1230 am estf: Projecting minor temperature adjustments otherwise what is posted will work fine. Its a fair night with still relatively low dewpoints. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A mostly sunny very warm day is ahead with a few locations in our forecast area likely nudging 90F for the first time this year, mainly vicinity KPHL northward along and west of the NJT to KABE and KRDG. Wind this afternoon south to southwest gusting to 15 mph with the afternoon til to an ocean influenced sea breeze also keeping max temps significantly lower along the coasts. Max temps in the interior around 10 degrees above normal. Thursday night...chance of a shower or thunderstorm advancing eastward into our forecast area...during the late evening, mainly eastern PA and northern NJ. A milder night than what is occurring early this Thursday morning. Min temps around 10 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend, and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and thunderstorms basically each day. High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a few more degrees. There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual vorticity, short wave impulses. A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend, but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area. There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way, there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both days. && .AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z Thursday...VFR with a few cirrus. Small chance of isolated MVFR VSBY near 10z Thursday but dewpoints are so low that fog is unlikely. Light south to southwest wind. After 12z Thursday...VFR. Sct clouds aoa 6000 ft, mainly this afternoon. South to southwest wind should gust 15 kt this afternoon. Thursday night...VFR sct-bkn aoa 6000 ft. Chance of a shower or isolated tstm...mainly KRDG, KABE after 03z/27. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the period. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the day, which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog development overnight into the morning each day. && .MARINE... No marine headlines anticipated through Thursday night. High pressure located off the coast will maintain a southwest to south flow on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware for tonight and Thursday. Wind speeds of 15 knots or less are expected. Wave heights on our ocean waters should favor the 2 to 3 foot range. Waves on Delaware Bay will be 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Friday-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected. Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night through Friday night. && .CLIMATE... The Philadelphia monthly average temperature continues to project only about 1f below normal... with this current end of the month stretch of above normal temperatures denting the first 24 days, nearly 4 degree below average. Also the Philadelphia month of May precip total of 5.14 inches ranks 20th wettest dating back to 1872. Atlantic City has had 4.87 is ranked #21 wettest dating back to 1874 and Wilmington`s (DE) 5.55 inches ranks 18th dating back to 1894. We may add more information by 5am Thursday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Robertson/drag 1208a Near Term...Drag/Iovino/Nierenberg 1208a Short Term...Iovino/Drag 1208a Long Term...Robertson Aviation...Drag/Iovino/Nierenberg/Robertson 1208a Marine...Drag/Iovino/Robertson 1208a Climate...1208a is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.