Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 120240 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 940 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over southeast Canada moves east and offshore tonight. Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will pass north of the area on Tuesday and drag a cold front through the region by Tuesday evening. High pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday, and then weak low passes through on Thursday. A coastal low may affect the region on Friday, and then high pressure returns for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Clouds have increased this evening ahead of a warm frontal boundary and low pressure system ion the Great Lakes. Temperatures have already reached the low values for the evening in many spots and will actually rise through the overnight due to the weak southerly winds and warm frontal passage. Recent data has trended drier for the remainder of the night so any precipitation should hold off till around sunrise.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Low pressure will continue to strengthen while moving across NY and into New England Tuesday. Light snows across the north will continue through the morning and then diminish as a cold front crosses the area. Further south, the chc for measurable precip will be less, but some light snows are possible and areas further south will have light rains. A limited confid fcst with regards to qpf amts. After the cold front crosses the area, winds will shift to W and increase to 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Temperatures will be highest early in the day, then fall through the afternoon, as the cold air advection increases. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long-term period continues to show a long-wave trof pattern over the eastern US with several shortwave trofs rotating through. The trof is deepest at the beginning period Tuesday night with a roughly 505dam closed upper low forecast over NY state. The associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from New England into Canada, maintaining strong NW winds and CAA over the area through Wednesday. Some snow showers are possible, mainly over the Poconos. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures should moderate slightly but remain well below normal. A couple of fast-moving low pressure centers could scoot past to our south and possibly bring some light snow to the area. The outlook for next weekend attm suggests temperatures returning to near normal. Saturday looks mainly dry, but by Sunday another low pressure may approach from the SW and bring a a mix of rain and snow late Sunday into Monday. Confidence in this system is rather low. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Tonight...VFR. Increasing clouds. W winds 5 to 10 knots early will become light. After midnight, winds will increase from the S/SE reaching 10-15 knots by dawn. Light Rain/snow mix starts at KABE and KRDG with a current timeframe of 11-14Z, little or no accumulation. High confidence. Tuesday...VFR. A few spotty showers are possible at all TAF sites, mixed with snow for ABE and KRDG. However, the chances are too low for TAF inclusion. S winds 10-15 knots will become SW as a cold front approaches. Winds will shift to W behind the front and gusts 25 to 30 knots probable by late afternoon. Moderate to high confidence. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected but possible MVFR at times at RDG/ABE with snow showers. Gusty west to northwest winds around 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 40 knots possible. Confidence: High Moderate Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. MVFR or lower possible in snow showers. West to southwest winds around 5 to 10 kts. Confidence: Moderate Saturday...Vfr conditions expected. Southwest winds around 10 kt. Confidence: Low
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will build late tonight and Tuesday ahead of a deepening low pressure system and approaching front. A SCA flag will be raised for the waters beginning at 11Z Tuesday. Fair weather tonight and sct rain/snow showers across the Nrn NJ waters Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday...Strong west winds with gale force gusts likely. Seas will also remain elevated around 5 to 7 feet on the ocean. Seas will start to subside Wednesday night. Thursday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. West winds with gusts around 25 knots possible. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for ANZ430-431-450>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...Gaines/O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/Gaines/O`Hara Marine...AMC/O`Hara

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