Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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097 FXUS61 KPHI 110236 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1036 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the region through the weekend. Weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time generating scattered showers and thunderstorms with their passage, especially in the afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross the region early next week, with high pressure becoming more dominant for a time towards the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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1036 PM update... added fog into the forecast overnight. Previous discussion... Radar showing convection breaking out south and east of Philadelphia where greatest instability resides. Latest hires guidance maintains convection in those areas until sunset when we lose solar heating. Isolated instances of flash flooding or wind gust up to 40 knots is possible. Otherwise areas to the north and west will be fair for the rest of the day. Fog may form tonight in areas that have rainfall today, otherwise expect a tranquil night with scattered to broken cloud cover. Much lower storm coverage on Friday as forcing aloft remains weak at best. That said, isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is possible across inland locations from diurnal heating. Maximum heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... There continues to be a stalled out front close to the area Friday night into Saturday. It will be located to the north and east a bit. There will not be a lot of forcing over our area and upper-level heights start to rise. Overall, just a stray shower or storm possible Friday night. The front remains stalled close to the area on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will have better coverage during the day Saturday from a diurnally driven environment. This activity looks to be focused inland and away from the marine influence. Highs on Saturday reach into the 80s. On Sunday, a warm front starts to lift into the region and will help initiate some isolated showers and thunderstorms during the day. The better coverage of showers and thunderstorms seems to be to our west which makes since given the main trigger mechanism is a cold front that would still be located to the northwest of our area. High temperatures on Sunday once again reach into the 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front moves through on Monday but there is a bit of uncertainty with timing. Right now, it looks to move through during the day Monday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage increases during the day as the cold front moves from west to east through the area. Monday looks to be a day to watch for any severe or flash flooding concerns but there is still some uncertainty at this time. By Monday night into Tuesday, the front is mostly out of the area. As the front moves out, the shower and thunderstorm coverage becomes more isolated. High pressure builds in behind the front on Tuesday into Wednesday which should allow for more dry time. Given that the post frontal regime does not provide much relief on Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures in the 80s to near 90 as highs for both days. The air mass will also remain quite humid, so even with a high pressure system in control, a diurnally driven shower or thunderstorm could still potentially develop. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this evening...Light wind. Scattered thunderstorms south and east of Philadelphia. Tonight...VFR but MVFR in low clouds/fog especially south and east of Philadelphia. Light winds. Friday...VFR with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Light winds. Outlook... Friday through Tuesday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub-VFR conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but confidence low on timing and placement. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are in effect. South to southwest winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-4 feet are expected through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday through Tuesday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time, especially at night. Rip Currents... For today, a south/southwest shore parallel wind of around 10-20 MPH and breaking waves of around 2-3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore. With wind direction mainly offshore along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW Risk for rip currents is in place. Similar conditions are expected for Friday so we`ll continue with a MODERATE risk for the Jersey shore and a LOW risk of rip currents for the Delaware Beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franklin/Guzzo NEAR TERM...Franklin/RCM SHORT TERM...Guzzo LONG TERM...Guzzo AVIATION...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM MARINE...Franklin/Guzzo/RCM