Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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112 FXUS61 KPHI 101733 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 133 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...
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A very warm and humid airmass will remain over the region through the weekend. Weak disturbances will move through the area from time to time generating scattered showers and thunderstorms with their passage, especially in the afternoon and evening. A cold front will cross the region early next week, with high pressure becoming more dominant for a time towards the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Radar showing convection breaking out south and east of Philadelphia where greatest instability resides. Latest hires guidance maintains convection in those areas until sunset when we lose solar heating. Isolated instances of flash flooding or wind gust up to 40 knots is possible. Otherwise areas to the north and west will be fair for the rest of the day. Fog may form tonight in areas that have rainfall today, otherwise expect a tranquil night with scattered to broken cloud cover. Much lower storm coverage on Friday as forcing aloft remains weak at best. That said, isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening convection is possible across inland locations from diurnal heating. Maximum heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The stalled front will weaken slowly through the first half of the weekend, and with considerably weaker forcing aloft as heights start to rise, we`ll likely see much lower coverage in convection, mostly focused inland where there is less of a marine influence, and mostly during the afternoon hours because the forcing will mostly be CAPE vs upper forcing. With a bit more sunshine, temps should nudge upwards again a few degrees, approaching 90 in the warmest spots, and with dew points still in the 70s, some spots may approach 100 degree heat indices, though confidence is far too low for any heat advisories at this point. Lows at night won`t offer much relief, with readings again around 70 both nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The pattern starts to shift on Sunday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This will provide a better focus for storm activity in the afternoon and evening. The front`s passage is still a bit uncertain, but best bet right now is Monday, so have highest POPs during this day, along with temps starting to drop a bit compared to Sunday`s upper 80s. This is probably our biggest severe/flood risk through the forecast period. The front mostly clears us Tuesday into Wednesday, with high pressure from Canada pressing southeastward. This should let a general drying occur, though spotty afternoon convection can`t be completely ruled out this time of year without a truly refreshing air mass, and right now that doesn`t look too likely. It is July, after all. Highs will actually rebound compared to Monday thanks to greater sun, returning to the upper 80s to near 90. And again, we might flirt with head advisory criteria, but even more uncertainty here compared to this weekend. Lows still near 70. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this evening...Light wind. Scattered thunderstorms south and east of Philadelphia. Tonight...VFR but MVFR in low clouds/fog especially south and east of Philadelphia. Light winds. Friday...VFR with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Light winds. Outlook... Friday night through Monday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief sub-VFR conditions if a given storm passes over a terminal. Sub-VFR conditions possible at night due to fog and low clouds, but confidence low on timing and placement.
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&& .MARINE...
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No marine headlines are in effect. South to southwest winds 10-15 kt and seas 3-4 feet are expected through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. Outlook... Friday night through Monday...Sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday. VSBY restrictions possible from time to time, especially at night. Rip Currents... For today, a south/southwest shore parallel wind of around 10-20 MPH and breaking waves of around 2-3 feet will result in a MODERATE risk for the Jersey Shore. With wind direction mainly offshore along the Delaware Beaches, a LOW Risk for rip currents is in place. Similar conditions are expected for Friday so we`ll continue with a MODERATE risk for the Jersey shore and a LOW risk of rip currents for the Delaware Beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franklin NEAR TERM...Franklin/RCM SHORT TERM...AKL/RCM LONG TERM...AKL/RCM AVIATION...Franklin/RCM MARINE...Franklin/RCM