Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201107 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE, AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL. TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
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&& .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .RIP CURRENTS... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...MEOLA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...

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