Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 210542 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 142 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area tonight and cross through by Friday morning. Weak high pressure will then prevail through Saturday. Another front and associated low pressure will be across the area Saturday night through Monday. High pressure will then move in next Tuesday and remain into the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The sky over our region should become clear to partly cloudy. A surface trough trailing the convective complex is expected to pass through our forecast area late tonight. The wind is anticipated to become light and variable overnight. Low temperatures should be mostly in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Maximum temperatures on Friday will be similar to those of today. However, the humidity is forecast to be slightly lower. We will leave the Excessive Heat Warning in place for the urban corridor. However, other areas should fall a bit short of their criteria for a Heat Advisory. The sky is expected to be mostly sunny on Friday. We will not mention any precipitation due to the lack of any significant triggering mechanism along with the continued existence of a capping inversion aloft. The wind should favor the west and southwest on Friday around 5 to 10 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The heat wave will continue on into the weekend, but it will gradually weaken with temperatures more in line with normal after Monday. A few recent model runs are showing that high temperatures around 90 degrees readings are possible Monday, something which has changed since yesterday, but for now we will continue with upper 80s across the Philadelphia metro area and for Delmarva too. Dew point temperatures will be lower over the area Saturday, but then climb back to steamy values Sunday and early Monday. A front will cross the area Monday and drier and cooler air will arrive behind that for the middle of next week. Shower and tstm chances will be rather low Friday night and into Saturday morning, but then increase from w to e through the afternoon as the the front and humid air return to the area. High chance to low likely pops will be over the area Sunday into Monday as the system passes the region. Lower pops will be over the area Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure settling over the region.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. For the 06Z TAFs...Mostly VFR through the period, though there may be some patchy/transient visibility restrictions through early morning in favored more rural valley locations and where rain fell today. Expecting FEW-SCT cumulus around 5000-8000 feet tomorrow with winds transitioning from northwest to west or southwest as the day wears on. Speeds should remain around or below 10 kts. No storms are expected through the TAF period. OUTLOOK... Fri night thru Saturday morning...VFR expected. Saturday afternoon thru Monday...Mostly VFR. Sct showers and tstms with lower conditions possible. Tue...Mostly VFR.
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&& .MARINE... High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to influence the coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey for tonight. A weak frontal boundary from the northwest is forecast to arrive early on Friday. The wind should favor the south and southwest at less than 15 knots tonight, becoming west to southwest on Friday. Wave heights on our ocean waters will remain around 2 to 4 feet and waves on Delaware Bay should be 1 to 2 feet. OUTLOOK... Sub-SCA conditions overall. The main hazard will be sct tstms mainly between Saturday afternoon and Monday. Locally higher winds and seas with tstms. Bring your NOAA weather radio along to get alerts. RIP CURRENTS... The underlying 10 second southeasterly swell is forecast to persist into Friday. However, this is expected to be weaker than yesterday so conditions may be more in the low category. && .EQUIPMENT... The KDOV dew point readings are unrepresentative of the area and should not be used when diagnosing humidity/heat indices and meteorological analysis of meteorological items which use dewpoint in a calculation. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070- 071-102-104-106. NJ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ015- 017>019. DE...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Gaines/Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...CMS/O`Hara Marine...Gaines/Iovino/O`Hara Equipment...Staff

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