Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 151512 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1112 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD. RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING CLOUDINESS. BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY, INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS. OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME MVFR IS PSBL. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS. FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY, AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KLINE NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG LONG TERM...KLINE AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG

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