Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 160048 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 848 PM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... In the wake of a passing cold front, weak high pressure builds in tonight and Saturday. The next cold front crosses our area Sunday. A reinforcing shot of colder air will arrive for Monday and Tuesday along with brisk winds, followed by weak high pressure building in for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
845 PM...As of mid evening, the cold front that has been working southward through the area was draped over Delmarva. However there has been a weak wave that has developed along it and this is bringing some showers over portions of Delmarva into southern NJ at this time. POPs over this area were raised for this evening because of this. Expect these will diminish through later this evening as the front pushes southward. Once any showers end by later this evening, at least some clearing should work in from the northwest although the cold air advection may maintain an area of stratocumulus for at least portions of the region. Some cloud cover may also be enhanced some overnight as stronger, but channelized vorticity, slides across the region. The cold air advection and decent mixing should carry some wind for a while this evening, although a diminishing trend is expected as the overall mixing does shrink. It will turn noticeably colder tonight as temperatures drop into the 30s to low 40s by daybreak Saturday. As we go through Saturday, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to quickly slide across our area in the morning with more of a zonal flow aloft continuing. This will result in a cooler air mass, however given the zonal flow the temperatures will still be several degrees above average. High temperatures are forecast to get well into the 50s to low 60s during the afternoon (coolest in the Poconos). Any lingering cloud cover should be the high level variety, however overall a good amount of sunshine should occur.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... High pressure moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold front approaching as an area of low pressure skates by to the north. This front will not have much moisture to work with, and only have a 15-35% chance of showers from around I-95 northwestward late Saturday night or Sunday morning, with the highest chances north of I-78. Temperatures will be similar to Saturday, but in the wake of the front a gusty westerly breeze will pick up on Sunday. Enough drying should come in to provide at least partial sunshine, though, and the day will turn out mainly dry. Temperatures will dip well into the 30s on Sunday night as colder air continues to push in. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Overall quiet weather for most of next week, although start off much chillier, with the coldest temperatures in our region since the end of February or 1st of March. In the wake of a mainly dry secondary cold front swinging by on Sunday night, colder and drier air will filter in on brisk westerly winds on Monday, as a rather deep upper-level trough settles across the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. Highs will struggle to reach 50 degrees even southeast of I-95, with wind gusts up to the 25 to 30 mph range or so, especially during the afternoon. As the trough axis passes by, enough moisture and instability may be present around the Poconos and perhaps far northern NJ to generate a few snow showers Monday afternoon. An even colder and drier airmass will flow into our region on Tuesday in the wake of the upper-trough passage. Winds may stay elevated enough to limit radiational cooling for low temps early Tuesday morning, but still will get down to the upper 20s or low 30s for most of our area. With 850 mb temps around -10C, despite fairly good mixing, highs will only get into the mid 40s for most areas, with the Poconos only expected to reach the mid 30s. That will be accompanied by brisk winds similar to Monday, making for a rude awakening that it is still March, after our nice warm weather the previous week. Tuesday should be dry aside from perhaps a few flurries around the Poconos, though there may be a little more in the way of clouds with stratocumulus drifting in off the Appalachians at times as another trailing mid/upper- level shortwave passes by. Weak surface high pressure will return for Wednesday and Thursday, with continued dry weather and mostly sunny skies. Wednesday will still be brisk and chilly, but as winds both at the surface and aloft become more southerly on Thursday, highs will moderate into the 50s. Models are not in great agreement on specifics beyond that, but most suggest that a more substantial rainfall could be in store for Friday or Saturday as low pressure tracks from southwest to northeast across our region. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...VFR with some clearing of the clouds from the northwest. Some showers possible this evening mainly south and east of ILG. North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Saturday...VFR. West-northwest winds near 10 knots, becoming southwest in the afternoon. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday Night...VFR. South/southwesterly winds 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence. Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. A few showers may pass by early Sunday morning, mainly from around I-78 northward, but should not restrict visibility. West/northwest winds around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt at night. Moderate confidence. Monday through Wednesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-30 kt. Moderate confidence.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... The conditions are anticipated to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria (25 knots/5 feet) through Saturday. Outlook... Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated, but southerly winds will increase from the south with gusts near 20-25 kt late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with seas building to 3 to 4 ft over the open ocean. Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. North/northwest winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Monday through Wednesday...SCA conditions highly likely (80%) as west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt possible. Seas 3 to 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Gorse SHORT TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich LONG TERM...Dodd/Hoeflich AVIATION...Dodd/Fitzsimmons/Gorse MARINE...Dodd/Gorse

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.