Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
332 FXUS61 KPHI 290742 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 342 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TODAY,REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST, POSSIBLY BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND A LITTLE FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NJ. OVERALL...POOR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH LITTLE DRY AIR EXPECTED TO ADVECT OR MIX DOWN AND A OVERALL WEAK ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL TODAY (LIKE ON THURSDAY) WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 1/4 INCH EXPECTED NORTH AND UP TO A 1/10TH INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE/FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS DAWN IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND THEN MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT AND BE WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE START OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND STARTS MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE EAST. PWATS INCREASE MAINLY ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TO AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES, WHICH MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME PRETTY GOOD RAINMAKERS AROUND THE REGION. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR SUNDAY AND WE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST, MAINLY OVER THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST AND THEN TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE PROXIMITY OF THAT BOUNDARY TO OUR COAST. FOR NOW WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AS A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH...ONSHORE FLOW AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINE TO PRODUCE PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR EARLY...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN DETERIORATING BACK TO IFR TONIGHT. OVERALL CONFID IS LOW WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING/CATEGORIES FOR THE TAFS. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLY, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL ON SUNDAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT OFF THE EAST COAST WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND LOW-END SCA WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG...HOWEVER SCA CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE OCCURRING ALL OF THE TIME TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE EARLY TODAY AND THEN SCT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS WILL END OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WILL BUILD LATE SUNDAY AND REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ454-455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SYNOPSIS...MEOLA NEAR TERM...O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...MEOLA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.