Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 161611 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1230 PM: ESTF WILL HAVE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS. LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS BASICALLY DONE NOW. A VERY NICE AFTN IS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 15 MPH. TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING TO FCST FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS AT WORST...ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION. WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP, AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS. BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITH TIME. BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT. TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. LIGHT NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL USE THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TO CHECK FOR FOG ON THE 12Z BLENDED GRIDDED GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR 4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1 FT. THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS. ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT. WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND PROBABLY CAPPING SWELLS AT 4 FT. HAVE NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z GFS WW GUIDANCE AS OF THIS WRITING. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AT AROUND 01Z/17-TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. OUTLOOK... WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD. FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN, WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .RIP CURRENTS...
-- Changed Discussion --
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG NEAR TERM...DRAG 1211 SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1211 LONG TERM...NIERENBERG AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1211 MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1211 RIP CURRENTS...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.