Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 151541 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1141 AM EDT Fri Mar 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moves through the region today, then weak high pressure builds in tonight and Saturday. The next cold front crosses our area Sunday. Yet another cold front may pass through Monday before high pressure returns for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1140 AM, surface low pressure was centered near the Lower Hudson Valley. This will pull a cold front across our area through the afternoon into early this evening. A wind shift from the northwest is occurring with the front with also an uptick in the winds. The wind is also increasing ahead of the front as boundary layer mixing is deepening. Forcing for ascent is weak overall and instability is rather weak. The shower activity has really dissipated with the exception of a weakening band in far northwestern New Jersey back into the southern Poconos. Made some adjustments to the PoPs to better reflect the radar trends. The mid level cloud canopy has thinned allowing for more filtered sunshine, however some thicker clouds are approaching from the west and southwest. Otherwise, we will see some better forcing arrive late afternoon into the early evening as the front makes its way across extreme southern New Jersey and the southern Delmarva. This may result in some uptick in showers in far southern New Jersey and Delmarva. While a rumble of thunder across these areas cannot be ruled out later this afternoon, the instability is very limited and therefore opted to not carry a thunder mention in the forecast. High temperatures will still be warm, in the 60s and 70s, but with the 70s limited to areas where the front hasn`t come through in the afternoon, mainly along and south and east of the I-95 corridor. As the front clears the region this evening, the sky will start to clear from the northwest and cooler temperatures will arrive as high pressure builds in for the overnight period. Expect temperatures to cool into the upper 30s and low 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A relatively quiet weekend is ahead. Weak high pressure slides by just to the south and will be in control through Saturday. Temperatures will climb into the upper 50s/low 60s. High pressure moves offshore on Saturday Night with a cold front approaching as an area of low pressure skates by to the north. This front will not have much moisture to work with, and only have a 15-20% chance of showers north of I-78 for Sunday morning as the front moves through. Not expecting much of an impact overall and for most of the region, this will be a dry frontal passage. The cold air will accompany the secondary front passing on Monday, with temperatures on Sunday expected to be mild yet again. Looking at another day in the upper 50s/low 60s with some mid 60s within the Delmarva peninsula. Cooler, more seasonable air begins to filter in on Sunday night with lows mainly in the 30s with upper 20s in the Poconos and lower 40s in southern Delmarva. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Relatively benign in the long term overall with below normal temperatures for most of next week with a few weak systems potentially moving through. A stretch of below-normal temperatures looks to begin on Monday. Long-range guidance continues to suggest a reinforcing cold front arriving on Monday, with a few showers possible ahead of the front on Monday, mainly across the Poconos, northern Lehigh Valley, and far northern New Jersey. Can`t fully rule out the chance for some flurries or snow showers during the day Monday either, most likely in the southern Poconos. As a result of the front, a period of below normal temperatures is expected Monday through Wednesday, with highs for the most part in the 40s with southern areas getting into the low 50s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s/low 30s. Tuesday looks to be the coldest day overall as 850 mb temperatures are -10C, translating to surface temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Brisk northwest flow in the wake of the secondary front could result in some breezy days through the middle of the week, with some of the guidance showing gusts in the 20-30 MPH range during the day. The upper level trough is slow to pull away with a few shortwaves likely moving through within the northwest flow. This could result in some rain/snow showers at times for the Poconos/northwest NJ, but nothing impactful overall. Temperatures return to more seasonal levels towards the end of next week as more zonal flow takes over. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Rest of today...VFR overall with a few showers around as a cold front moves through. If any restrictions with the showers were to occur they will be brief and limited. Southwest to west winds 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20-25 knots, becoming northwest. Moderate confidence. Tonight...VFR ceilings overall, which will start to clear some from the northwest overnight. Some showers possible this evening mainly south and east of ILG. North-northwest winds diminishing to 5-10 knots. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday Night...VFR. West/northwest winds in the morning will become south/southwesterly for the afternoon and overnight hours. Wind speeds around 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence. Sunday through Sunday Night...Primarily VFR. Slight chance (15%) of showers near KABE, but otherwise dry for most. West/northwest winds around 10-15 kt, gusting 20-25 during the day decreasing to 5-10 kt at night. Low confidence. Monday through Tuesday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence.
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&& .MARINE... No headlines expected through Friday night. SW winds this morning around 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts through the afternoon before a cold front pushes through, turning winds to the NW around 10-15 kts by Friday night. Seas 2-4 feet. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. Winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 kt by the late morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated. West/southwest winds 10-15 kt gusting up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Sunday Night...No marine headlines anticipated. North/northwest winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Monday through Tuesday...SCA conditions likely (70%) as west/northwest winds will increase to around 20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/Wunderlin NEAR TERM...Gorse/MJL SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Gorse/Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL

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