Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 201502 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK. THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE, AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK. WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD. IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER PERIODS OF TIME. TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .RIP CURRENTS... WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS, IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NJ COAST. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA RIP CURRENTS...

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