Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 191346 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 946 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Hurricane Jose will move northward well offshore through tonight. Jose will continue to weaken and move slowly northeastward near southeastern New England through the remainder of the week. High pressure will become established to our north through the mid and late week time period as well. This area of high pressure will remain over the area into early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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The PoPs were trimmed/delayed near and west of I-95 as the main focus is closer to the coast. Some showers will continue to roll in from the ocean especially for central and southern New Jersey down into Delaware. We cannot rule out some showers developing this afternoon farther inland, however overall tightened up the PoP gradient eastward. Adjusted the winds, temperatures and dew points based on observations and then some assistance with the LAMP guidance. Cloud cover may need another adjustment as the visible satellite imagery shows breaks developing especially inland from the coast. The rainfall amounts were also lowered based on guidance from WPC. The center of Hurricane Jose is forecast to continue drifting northward today, remaining about 250 miles off the coasts of Virginia and Maryland. A northeast to north wind is expected for today, ranging from about 5-10 MPH in our western counties to 20 to 25 MPH and gusty along the coast.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of Jose is forecast to start turning northeastward tonight and it should begin to lose it influence on our region gradually. The showers are expected to move eastward and out of our region by about midnight. Clouds should linger over most of New Jersey. However, some clearing is anticipated for parts of eastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva. The wind is anticipated to back to the north and northwest with speeds diminishing to 15 to 20 MPH near the coast. Speeds are forecast to remain in the 5 to 10 MPH range well inland. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday through Friday: Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Bufkit analysis for both the NAM and GFS yields north to northwest winds on the backside of Jose from 10-15 mph on Wednesday with higher gusts to 20 mph. By Thursday and Friday these winds will gradually ease as the high pressure system builds in. If the wind is light enough Thursday morning, a marginal situation for patchy fog right around sunrise may materialize. Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. Typical MET/MAV guidance has be slow to catch up the anomalous warmth coming. Friday night through Monday: Ensemble guidance continues to show us about one-third of all members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites show Jose making a loop back to the southwest around the weekend timeframe. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region. Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance will likely be slow to pick up on the degree of warmth this weekend and early next week. Temperatures were raised a few degrees most days as well. High temperatures may make a run at 90 early next week with heat index values into the 90`s. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest which is looking more unlikely, it would be much weaker. More clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would occur as well. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...MVFR ceilings, however some improvement is anticipated especially this afternoon for most terminals. Some MVFR showers will affect mainly KMIV and KACY at times. Northeast to north winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots, with the strongest winds at KMIV and KACY. Tonight...Conditions should favor VFR as showers retreat to our north and east. North to northwest winds should diminish to 10-15 knots (a bit lower at KRDG and KABE). OUTLOOK... Wednesday through Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 10- 15 knots decreasing on Thursday to under 10 knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and KMIV. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Winds under 10 knots.
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&& .MARINE...
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The remaining Tropical Storm Watch on our ocean zones has been upgraded to a Warning. While this may end up being more of a gale event, there is some opportunity for near sustained tropical storm force winds later today and early this evening from south to north especially farther offshore. To keep the messaging simple/consistent, just expanded the Tropical Storm Warning northward. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Delaware Bay with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas on our ocean waters will be around 15 feet into tonight. OUTLOOK... Seas will be slow to come down through the remainder of the week. Potential is present for seas to fall at or below five feet by Thursday but remain at that level through Saturday. Winds will decrease gradually through Wednesday-Wednesday night from the north and northwest falling below 25 knots on Wednesday. Rip Currents... Hurricane Jose will continue to push powerful swells toward the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey today and tonight. As a result, there is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents. Also, a High Surf Advisory is in effect as 8-10 foot waves crash onto the coast. Some reports have been received already of significant beach erosion with dune washouts along parts of the New Jersey shore.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for our coastal counties and for the counties along Delaware Bay. It appears as though we will experience minor flooding with this morning`s high tide and moderate flooding with this evening`s high tide as the surge builds near 2 feet above the astronomical tide. Also, we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in place for New Castle County and Salem County for tonight`s high tide. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KSMQ observations are not being sent out. There is a comms problem and technicians are on site today to troubleshoot.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Gorse/Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Gorse/Iovino Marine...Gaines/Gorse/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...

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