Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 221930 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 330 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will pass over our region on Tuesday before moving off the coast and drifting out to sea. A cold front approaching from the northwest is expected to arrive on Friday. Another area of high pressure is anticipated to build from the Great Lakes to New England and southeastern Canada over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Great weather will continue tonight and high pressure continues to build across the area. Skies will be mostly clr overnight and winds will become light and variable by sunset. Temperatures will be as cool as they have been this summer with some 40s across the far north and 50s in most other areas. The metro areas near Philadelphia could remain in the low 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
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The fine weather continue Tuesday. This high will crest over the area during the morning and begin to slide east. Skies will be mostly sunny and it will be another dry and comfortable day. High temperatures will reach the low/mid 80s in most spots. Winds will turn NE to E by afternoon...but speeds will be less than 10 mph overall.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Dominant features through the long term are two large high pressure systems, leading to a continued mostly tranquil weather pattern. Wednesday night through Thursday...Surface high shifts off shore. The biggest impact of this will be to bring a shift to weak low level onshore flow. Meanwhile, in the mid and upper levels, a broad ridge builds over the southeastern U.S., which could slow the progress of the cold front (over the Great Lakes region at this time). Thursday night and Friday...Cold front continues slow progress east, though little, if any precipitation is expected primarily because of synoptic scale subsidence thanks to the persistent broad ridge over the southeastern U.S.. The front should arrive on Friday. With models depicting considerable pressure rises behind the front (thanks to a high building south out of central Canada), expect that the front should make steady progress through the region without stalling. Saturday and Sunday...the region will once again be mostly under the influence of a High pressure system, resulting in mostly tranquil weather. However, the center of the high will stay well north of the region. As a result, we expect temperatures will remain above normal through this period. Monday...An upper level short wave trough could dig southeast towards our region through this time, bringing another small chance for precipitation. Given the uncertainty with how far out it is, kept the chance for precipitation no higher than 20 percent.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Great flying weather is expected through Tuesday with high pressure building in. The daytime cu across the area will diminish by sunset and the winds will become light by then too. Clear skies and light winds will be over the area tonight and early Tue. Winds will be variable Tue, but may show a tendency to go NE or E by afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday...VFR conditions expected. Thursday night and Friday...mostly VFR conditions expected though there is a slight chance (20 percent) of thunderstorms across the Delaware Valley and Lehigh Valley (including KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, and KPHL). Saturday...VFR conditions expected.
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&& .MARINE...
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The winds have been somewhat gusty on the water today. There have been some gusts in the SCA flag range, but overall a bit less than expected earlier. We intend to drop the SCA flag with the 330 pm CWF issuance. Winds will remain mostly NW this evening and then veer to N late. On Tuesday, winds will further veer to NE during the morning. Winds speeds later tonight and Tuesday will mostly be around 10 knots. Fair weather tonight and Tuesday. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria. RIP CURRENTS...There is a low risk for the development of dangerous rip currents today due to the offshore flow. The probable risk for the development of dangerous rip currents on Tuesday is low.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Iovino/Johnson Near Term...O`Hara Short Term...O`Hara Long Term...Johnson Aviation...Johnson/O`Hara Marine...Johnson/O`Hara

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