Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 191954 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 354 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region tonight and influence our weather through Friday. A low pressure system will develop over the southeastern United States late Friday, crossing to the south and east of our area over the weekend. Surface high pressure will then build across the region early in the week but unsettled weather will remain due to an upper level low across the Mid-Atlantic. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Remainder of this afternoon...Partly to mostly sunny. There might be a couple of late day showers in NJ (dewpoints look too dry in PA which are below guidance) with a leftover cool pool aloft and modest low level moisture trying to initiate a low top convective release. However, other than the nearby KEWR shower of a little earlier this afternoon, have withdrawn the showers from the forecast. Light south to southeast winds along the coasts and light west to northwest inland. isolated gusts 20 kt. Tonight...Clear with radiational cooling in the countryside as high pressure slides eastward overhead. Any daytime cumulus is forecast to dissipate this evening. Evening light nw winds west of I-95 and light south-southwest winds over SE NJ, DE and MD eshore, all become west to northwest during the night and become nearly calm everywhere. Radiated low temps several degrees below 12z/19 GFS/NAM MOS guidance most of the area countryside in NJ and PA. These lows are several degrees below normal in the countryside. Patchy fog is in the forecast the typical spots of northern and coastal NJ but probably not a big deal. Used UPS cross over tool. Otherwise this forecast was a 50 50 blend of 12z/19 GFS/NAM guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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Sunny and pleasant. Light north to northwest winds during the morning turn southwest interior during the late afternoon when cirrus starts arriving, and south to southeast along the coasts. This forecast was nearly identical to the previous forecast. Raised the 50 50 blended 12z/19 GFS/NAM guidance by a degree (upper 70s I-95 corridor). These max temps are several degrees above normal away from the waters influence.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Friday night should be most quiet as high pressure shifts offshore and moves to the east. Clouds will increase from the south to the north as low pressure organizes across the southeastern United States. The aforementioned low pressure system will move to the northeast through Saturday, passing to the south and east of the area late Saturday into Sunday. Rain associated with this system will push in from south and spread northward through Saturday. PWAT values in the 1.5-2.0 range indicate that heavy rain is possible, especially across the Delmarva and Southern New Jersey on Saturday. As we head into Saturday night, the rain should be starting to lighten up, especially across our western areas. However, light showers may continue through Saturday night. At the surface, high pressure will make its way into the from the west on Sunday. The wrench in the forecast is a pesky upper level low that will reside over the eastern US, keeping us in more of an unsettled pattern for the start of the work week. There will likely be breaks in any precipitation that does develop but we are not likely to see much sun during this time. Tuesday is when things start to look up a bit. The upper level low starts to break down and then shifts to the east. A few lingering showers are possible but expect the region to start clearing out as we head into the middle of the week. Some differences in the models exist from Tuesday onward in how the surface high is positioned. The ECMWF keeps the high just to our south while the GFS has it breaking down, allowing for a few shortwaves to cross the region. What they do agree on is warmer air making its way into the region leading to above normal temperatures for the latter part of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. Remainder of this afternoon...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 7000 ft. Isolated afternoon showers possible, vicinity KTTN but chances too small to add to the TAF at this time. Light generally north or northwest wind backing to west or southwest later in the day except southeast to south sea breezes along the coasts including KACY and KMIV progressing northwestward slowly but probably not reaching I95. Tonight...VFR clear. winds Becoming light west to northwest during the night or calm. Friday...VFR. Clear to start then some cirrus late in the day. Light northwest to north wind becoming southwest interior late in the day and south to southeast coastal areas during the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Friday night...VFR conditions are expected with increasing cloudiness from south to north. Showers may start to impact the southern terminals late. Saturday...Showers will start to spread northward through the area on Saturday. VFR conditions will rapidly deteriorate to MVFR, with IFR conditions possible. Rain may be heavy at times, especially from KPHL and to the south and east. Sunday through Monday...Showers continue through Sunday and Monday with VFR/MVFR conditions expected. Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. A few showers may move through the region but confidence is low at this time.
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&& .MARINE... No marine headlines through Friday. Water temperatures are generally a little below normal...mid 50s. Southeast to south wind, max gusts under 20 kt, turning west to northwest during the night and Friday morning with max gusts under 15 kt. Southerly sea breezes developing during the afternoon. OUTLOOK... Friday night...Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue across the area waters. Saturday through Sunday...low pressure will move up the southeast US coast and pass to the south and east of the area. As the low makes it way towards the area, seas and winds will start to increase. Seas will build and begin to exceed 5 feet by Saturday afternoon. Seas will remain elevated through Sunday evening. East winds ahead of the low will tun to the northeast by Saturday afternoon, increasing through this time. Wind gusts will increase and gale force gusts remain possible, especially across our southern ocean zones Saturday afternoon and night. At the very least a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. A Gale Warning may be needed for a stretch of time Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. For now, we have issued a Gale Watch for Saturday for our 3 southernmost ocean zones. Monday...Any lingering higher seas should subside in the wake of the departing low. Winds are expected to remain around 10 knots out of the north-northeast with gusts up to 20 knots. Tuesday...Sub-advisory conditions are expected to continue across the area waters. RIP CURRENTS: The Surf Zone forecast begins Friday morning and it will have a news headline on our homepage. It should also be accompanied by a probable debut of the Experimental National Beach Forecast page (if not Friday afternoon, then certainly early next week). You will be able to click the beach located umbrella and comprehensive beach localized forecast information including beach specific forecasts, the surf zone forecast, ultraviolet index, rip current preparedness/safety information for beaches within our forecast area. DIX and DOX live radar will be posted on the right side as well as a Rip Current recognition video, and Lightning Safety tips. Comments on the page will be welcome. We expect that we will need to adjust the density of the beaches offered. All this will be tied together in a social media announcement sometime late Friday morning. Ultimately for beach goers maximum enjoyment and safety...swimming within vision of lifeguards is a best practice. Rip currents come and go, tending to repeat only near jetties and piers, particularly the incident side of the swell. Rip currents may be a little stronger when the tide cycle is in the lower half of its cycle. Most rip current fatalities are male, under 40 and unguarded beaches. Water temperatures are currently a little below normal, mid 50s. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ANZ453>455. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag 355 Short Term...Drag 355 Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Meola 355 Marine...Drag/Meola 355

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