Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 191746 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 146 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Jose will move northward well offshore through tonight. Jose will continue to weaken and move slowly northeastward near southeastern New England through the remainder of the week. High pressure will become established to our north through the mid and late week time period as well. This area of high pressure will remain over the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The PoPs were trimmed across the western zones as these areas may end up being dry through the afternoon. A more pronounced band of showers rotating onshore now from coastal Monmouth County south-southwestward and therefore increased the PoPs into the categorical range. We still cannot rule out some showers developing later this afternoon west of I-95, however these areas have been pretty much dry thus far. Adjusted the winds upward earlier with peak gusts near 45 mph right along the coast. More clearing has taken place near and especially west of I-95 thus far, therefore needed to raise temperatures/high temperatures some. Additional clouds are rotating west- southwestward now. The rainfall amounts were lowered earlier based on guidance from WPC. We are getting some reports of roadway flooding and even some dune damage along portions of the New Jersey and Delaware coasts. Dangerous waves, about 8-10 feet, continues to crash onto the coastline. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of Jose is forecast to start turning northeastward tonight and it should begin to lose it influence on our region gradually. The showers are expected to move eastward and out of our region by about midnight. Clouds should linger over most of New Jersey. However, some clearing is anticipated for parts of eastern Pennsylvania and the upper Delmarva. The wind is anticipated to back to the north and northwest with speeds diminishing to 15 to 20 MPH near the coast. Speeds are forecast to remain in the 5 to 10 MPH range well inland. Minimum temperatures are forecast to be mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Wednesday through Friday: Jose will continue an eastward/northeastward movement away from our region. Mid-level heights will be on the increase to our north and west with high pressure becoming established over the region. Bufkit analysis for both the NAM and GFS yields north to northwest winds on the backside of Jose from 10-15 mph on Wednesday with higher gusts to 20 mph. By Thursday and Friday these winds will gradually ease as the high pressure system builds in. If the wind is light enough Thursday morning, a marginal situation for patchy fog right around sunrise may materialize. Sunshine will also be ample with mid-level temperatures quite warm for mid-September would would yield highs in the 80`s for a good portion of the region after starting warm in the 60`s. Typical MET/MAV guidance has be slow to catch up the anomalous warmth coming. Friday night through Monday: Ensemble guidance continues to show us about one-third of all members from the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian suites show Jose making a loop back to the southwest around the weekend timeframe. Any southwest movement will depend on the strength of mid-level ridging developing to our west and north throughout the remainder of the week. For now, the forecast will continue to go with the mainstream idea that Jose will continue to be located east enough of the region not to have any major impacts for our region. Ridging will continue to be firmly in place over the region through early next weekend with a strong - PNA pattern of almost four standard deviations in this timeframe. A similar theme of anomalous warmth will likely continue as well and ensemble guidance will likely be slow to pick up on the degree of warmth this weekend and early next week. Temperatures were raised a few degrees most days as well. High temperatures may make a run at 90 early next week with heat index values into the 90`s. If Jose were to trend back to the southwest which is looking more unlikely, it would be much weaker. More clouds along with somewhat cooler temperatures than currently forecasted would occur as well. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. This afternoon...MVFR to VFR ceilings, mostly in the range of 2000-5000 feet. Some MVFR visibility due to showers will affect mainly KMIV and KACY at times. Northeast to north winds around 15 knots with gusts 20-30 knots, with the strongest winds mainly at KMIV and KACY. Tonight...Conditions should favor VFR as showers retreat to our north and east. North to northwest winds should diminish to 10-15 knots (a bit lower at KRDG and KABE). OUTLOOK... Wednesday through Thursday night: VFR. North to northwest winds 10- 15 knots decreasing on Thursday to under 10 knots. Patchy fog if winds go light enough Thursday morning for KRDG, KABE and KMIV. Friday through Saturday: VFR. Winds under 10 knots. && .MARINE...
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Issued a Gale Warning through this evening for Lower Delaware Bay. Some observations are showing gale force gusts are occurring, and guidance shows enough wind at least into the early evening to mix down and produce some additional gale force gusts. Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for all our ocean zones. The winds are increasing and there is some opportunity for near sustained tropical storm force winds later today and early this evening from south to north especially farther offshore. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Delaware Bay with gusts to about 30 knots. Seas on our ocean waters will be around 15 feet into tonight. OUTLOOK... Seas will be slow to come down through the remainder of the week. Potential is present for seas to fall at or below five feet by Thursday but remain at that level through Saturday. Winds will decrease gradually through Wednesday-Wednesday night from the north and northwest falling below 25 knots on Wednesday. Rip Currents... Hurricane Jose continues to push powerful swells into the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey through tonight. As a result, there is a High Risk of dangerous rip currents. Also, a High Surf Advisory is in effect as 8-10 foot waves crash onto the coast.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... We have issued a Coastal Flood Warning for our coastal counties and for the counties along Delaware Bay. It appears as though we will experience minor flooding with this morning`s high tide and moderate flooding with this evening`s high tide as the surge builds near 2 feet above the astronomical tide. Also, we have a Coastal Flood Advisory in place for New Castle County and Salem County for tonight`s high tide. && .EQUIPMENT...
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KSMQ observations are not being sent out. There is a comms problem and technicians are on site this afternoon to troubleshoot.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NJZ014- 024>026. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ016. DE...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ002>004. High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for DEZ004. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430. Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ431.
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&& $$ Synopsis...Gaines Near Term...Gorse/Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Gaines Aviation...Gaines/Gorse Marine...Gaines/Gorse/Iovino Tides/Coastal Flooding... Equipment...

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