Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 182353 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 653 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure centered in our region this evening will move to the east and out to sea tonight. The high is forecast to settle over the western North Atlantic for a few days and it should influence our weather into Wednesday. However, a warm front may lift through our area on Monday night. A strong cold front approaching from the northwest is anticipated to arrive late Wednesday night and early Thursday. High pressure is expected to build from the Great Lakes across southeastern Canada and New England on Thursday and Friday. A couple of warm fronts may lift through our region in the Friday to Saturday time frame with a cold front forecast to approach from the west on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High temperatures in the 40s on Sunday provided opportunity for snowmelt which could be easily seen on the GOES-East high resolution visible channel. Gages on smaller streams in eastern PA and central NJ also showed minor rises in response to runoff from snowmelt during the late afternoon hours. High pressure will continue to build across the area this evening before slowly moving offshore overnight. As a result,mainly clear skies and light winds are expected through most of the overnight hours. These factors, along with lingering snow cover over northern areas, will create good conditions for radiational cooling, with lows generally in the 20s to low 30s. Late at night, mid and high clouds begin to move in from the west but this should not have a big impact on temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure continues to move offshore Monday as a warm front approaches the area. Clouds will quickly increase through the morning with some showers arriving west to east beginning around the late morning / early afternoon time frame. The precip will be driven mainly by the warm advection and overruning north of the warm front and be heaviest and steadiest north of the Mason- Dixon line. Highs will range from the low to mid 40s across northern areas through the southern Poconos into NW NJ to well into the 50s across interior portions of southern NJ through much of the Delmarva. The I-95 corridor should see highs right around 50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The period from Monday night through Saturday is expected to feature a mid level trough over the western states and a ridge over the east. The mid level pattern is expected to begin shifting over the weekend. A warm front is forecast to lift through our region on Monday night. Mild moist air is expected to continue building into our region. We are anticipating some lingering rain at that time along with the development of areas of fog. The fog may persist into Tuesday morning. High pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain a mild southwesterly flow in our region for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be much above normal with afternoon readings getting well into the 60s and 70s. The records for both days are listed in the climate section below. A cold front from the northwest is anticipated to arrive either late on Wednesday night or early on Thursday. We will begin to mention showers for late on Wednesday and we will keep them in the forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. The frontal boundary is expected to push to our south before stalling late in the week as an area of high pressure passes well to our north. Friday should be the chilliest day of the week. However, maximum temperatures are still anticipated to be about 5 degrees above normal at that time. The front is forecast to return northward and it may bring some rain for Friday and Saturday. A cold front is expected to approach from the west on Sunday resulting in a chance of rain showers at that time. Temperatures should remain mild over the weekend with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Winds light and variable. Monday...VFR in the morning with clouds increasing and cig restrictions to MVFR likely developing by the early to mid afternoon time frame as showers move in. IFR cigs will be possible by late afternoon. South to southwest wind. OUTLOOK... Monday night and Tuesday morning...IFR conditions are expected in low clouds and fog. Tuesday afternoon and evening...Mainly VFR. Tuesday night and Wednesday morning...Patchy low clouds and fog with some IFR conditions expected. Wednesday afternoon...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers around KRDG and KABE. Wednesday night and Thursday...A chance of showers with VFR and MVFR conditions. Thursday night and Friday...A chance of rain with VFR and MVFR conditions. && .MARINE... Conditions are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory criteria as high pressure builds in through this evening then offshore overnight through Monday. OUTLOOK... Monday night through Wednesday...Wind speeds and wave heights are forecast to remain below the Small Craft Advisory criteria. However, fog is expected to develop over the coastal waters. Wednesday night through Friday...No marine headlines are anticipated. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Tuesday, February 20: Atlantic City...70 in 1930 Philadelphia....70 in 1939 Wilmington......71 in 1930 Allentown.......68 in 1930 Trenton.........70 in 1930 Georgetown......68 in 2002 Mount Pocono....59 in 1930 Reading.........72 in 1930 Wednesday, February 21: Atlantic City...74 in 1930 Philadelphia....72 in 1930 Wilmington......70 in 1953 Allentown.......67 in 1953 Trenton.........70 in 1930 Georgetown......71 in 2014 Mount Pocono....60 in 1930 Reading.........71 in 1930 The following are the record warm minimum temperatures for Wednesday. ABE 46-1981 ACY 49-1954 PHL 49-2002 ILG 47-2002 RDG 48-1930 TTN 48-2002 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Miketta Short Term...Fitzsimmons Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Miketta Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino/Miketta Climate...Drag

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