Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 060224 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND. RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE. THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z. AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO METER TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTH. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED. FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE. FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT MOVES THROUGH DRY.
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&& .MARINE...
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EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND 05Z? SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING MONDAY.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY 3/6 RECORD LOWS ACY 10 1888 PHL 10 1978 ILG 11 1926 ABE 7 1960 TTN 7 1872 GED 10 1978 RDG 7 1978 MPO -5 1909 THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW FRIDAY MORNING. SATURDAY 3/7 RECORD LOWS ACY 10 1890 PHL 9 1960 ILG 11 1960 ABE 1 1960 TTN 7 1890 GED 3 1960 RDG 10 1989 MPO -18 1911 IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING. RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5 RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES. PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7. KACY 0.3 - 1960 KILG 3.7 - 1981 KABE 7.0 - 1917 KPHL 8.8 - 1981 FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...GORSE NEAR TERM...DRAG 923 SHORT TERM...GAINES LONG TERM...GORSE AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923 MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923 CLIMATE...

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