Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 261838 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 138 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY NOON THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN ITS NORTHEAST TURN...NEARING CAPE COD AT NOON TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKENING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF MID MORNING...A SFC LOW/TROF IS OVER WRN NC/VA BUT PRES FALLS CONTINUE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS LOW PRES STARTS TO RE-FORM THERE. LIGHT SNOW IS BEING REPORTED AT NUMEROUS STATIONS AROUND THE AREA BUT SO FAR AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER SRN DE WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FCST ATTM EXCEPT TO LOWER MAX TEMPS OVER SRN DE TO LOWER 40S WITH CLOUDS, LIGHT PRECIP AND NELY WINDS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW FOR TODAY WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TUE. GUSTY NE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING FROM PHL SOUTH...AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASED DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEEPEN OFFSHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS IS MOVES FROM OFF THE NC/VA COAST TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. STEADY/HVY SNOWS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE ERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER SNOWS AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WRN/SWRN EDGES OF THE AREA. OUR SNOW TOTALS ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ONES ISSUED SUN AFTERNOON...PERHAPS A FEW INCHES LOWER IF ANYTHING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR ACROSS THE FARTHEST WESTERN WARNING AREAS(CARBON AND LEHIGH)...BUT BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAKE THINGS LOOK WARNING-LIKE. PLENTY OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHEST TOTALS THRU 12Z NRN HALF OF NJ AND INTO EXTREME ERN PA. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... ***BLIZZARD COASTAL NEW JERSEY WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON*** 500 MB: DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TUESDAY DEPARTS WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH FORMS SEWD TO THE EAST COAST THU-FRI. THEREAFTER THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 MAV/MET FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z/26 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE 05Z/26 WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED FOR THE LONGER RANGE...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS HIGHER THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER. THE DAILIES... TUESDAY...BENT BACK MID LVL FRONT AT 700-600 MB WITH FGEN EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES COASTAL CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ WILL BE WINDING DOWN RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO NW. IDEAL SNOW GROWTH REGION NEAR 650MB NNJ NEWD WITH 1-3"/HR EXPECTED EVEN FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BUT...HOW FAR WEST OF I 95 IS IT SNOWING TUESDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. USUALLY WITH BANDING THERE ARE AREAS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN WHAT YOU WOULD OTHERWISE CONSIDER A SNOWY ENVIRONMENT. THOSE AREAS OF DRYING CAN SURPRISE. THIS MESO METEOROLOGY WE`RE NOT TOO GOOD AT REALISTICALLY AND RELIABLY DETAILING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE. LETS THINK OF LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN PA AND THE DELMARVA TUE MORNING THEN DRYING OUT. NW WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW OCCURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. ESTIMATING DRIFTS TO 4 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED REGIONS OF COASTAL NE NJ, WHERE SNOWFALL EXCEEDS 18 INCHES. TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20 MPH. DRIFTING SNOW CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NNJ WEDNESDAY...MO/SUNNY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH. DRIFTING SNOW COASTAL NNJ. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT ...MODEST AMOUNTS UNDER 2 INCHES IN THIS CF SITUATION AND FOR NOW MAINLY N OF I 78. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED. NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT MIGHT GET INTERESTING AGAIN? IT DOES NOT LOOK NECESSARILY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH THE SE EVOLUTION OF THE POLAR VORTEX AND WHAT MIGHT DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. **HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING** THROUGH LATE-DAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST, WITH GUSTS MAINLY BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE COAST. EVENING/OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...STEADILY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING. SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THROUGH NJ AND THE DELAWARE VALLEY. IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. REST OF TUESDAY...AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME CONTINUED LIGHTER SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE, THOUGH, AS WINDS BACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH CONTINUED GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. SOME LATE-DAY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED, BUT TIMING IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR SCT OR BKN AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20 KT. WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WHEN CONDITIONS MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. SW WIND THU AFTN SHIFT NW FRI.
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&& .MARINE... SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALES FOR DEL BAY AND THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES. BEGINNING AND END TIMES CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD. OUTLOOK... TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY TO START THE DAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY. WINDS DMSHG IN THE AFTN. TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER NW GALES DURING THE EVENING WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH FREEZING SPRAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. FRIDAY...AN SCA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BY LATE FRIDAY AS A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WERE CONVERTED TO WARNINGS WITH THE 330 AM FCST. WIDESPREAD MINOR WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOW-END MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. THE TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS...THE GREATER THREAT OF MODERATE FLOODING BEING TONIGHTS MIDNIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE. && .CLIMATE... RECORD (VULNERABLE) DAILY SNOW FALL FOR OUR LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES. TUESDAY 1/27. ACY 4.0 1946 PHL 4.1 1941 ILG 2.9 2004 ABE 8.0 1897 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071- 103>106. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ060-101- 102. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061- 062. NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010- 015>019-021>025-027. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027. BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020-026. DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004. MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012- 015-019-020. MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>453. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-454-455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG NEAR TERM...AMC/O`HARA SHORT TERM...O`HARA LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... CLIMATE...

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