Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240840 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 340 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front just north of our region today, will lift northward as a warm front tonight. This will be followed by a strong cold frontal passage on Saturday evening. High pressure will traverse the middle Atlantic Sunday into Monday. A warm front will setup near our region late Monday into Tuesday, followed by another cold frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A frontal boundary extended across northern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York and New England early this morning. The boundary will lift northward today. We may continue to see isolated light rain showers across the Poconos and far northern New Jersey early this morning associated with the front. Most of our region is solidly in the warm sector this morning and there is a light southwest to south surface flow. While patchy fog and stratus remain possible early this morning, it should not be nearly as widespread as it was on Thursday morning. The best chance for patchy low clouds and fog in our region is from the Interstate 78 Corridor northward. Following some morning clouds, especially over our northern counties, we are anticipating a mostly sunny and unseasonably warm day. Maximum temperatures are forecast to be close to 30 degrees above normal for the second day in a row. Based on the current projections records are expected at Philadelphia, Georgetown and Mount Pocono. A southwest to south wind is forecast to increase around 10 MPH today with gusts of 15 to 20 MPH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
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The surface flow is forecast to become from the south and southeast for tonight. The trajectory is expected to draw low clouds and fog off the ocean during the course of the night. Meanwhile, rain showers ahead of the cold front approaching from the west may move into parts of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey late tonight. Conditions will remain quite mild tonight with minimum temperatures anticipated to favor the lower and middle 50s in much of eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Active pattern in the Saturday thru Thursday time frame. SPC continues to outlook our entire area for a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday. Daily record high temperatures on Saturday remain in jeopardy. Temperatures cool to seasonal levels on Sunday, with above average temperatures returning for the Monday thru Thursday time period, and additional chances for precipitation. In terms of confidence, there is still uncertainty with regard to convective outcomes on Saturday. Overall, Sunday`s forecast is high confidence. Moving into next week, there remains considerable uncertainty with regard to timing and coverage of precipitation, as well as high temperatures. Saturday and Sunday...A strong cold front is progged to move through the region Saturday evening. We continue to expect a squall/convective line to move through much of the area. The primary threat is damaging wind gusts, and we continue this wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO). Some heavier downpours are also likely, but rainfall amounts are expected to be less than one inch. High temperatures on Saturday are forecast to fall shy of daily records. We continue to expect a return to fair weather on Sunday, along with near normal temperatures, and gusty northwest winds. Looking ahead to Monday thru Thursday: several shortwaves will interact with a warm front that sets up near our region late Monday into Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday into Thursday. Timing and coverage of precip continues to remain uncertain, so the forecast reflects a general slight chance of showers during this time frame.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions were being reported around 0830Z at and around all eight of our TAF sites. Patchy fog and stratus are forecast to develop. However, the low conditions are not expected to be nearly as widespread as they were on Thursday morning. We have indicated a period of low end MVFR conditions for now but it may be a bit overdone. We will monitor the trends early this morning and amend the TAFs as necessary. Any low clouds and fog should dissipate by 1400Z or so with VFR conditions anticipated for the balance of the day into this evening. The computer guidance is suggesting another more substantial round of low conditions for late tonight. The solution seems reasonable as the surface flow may be a little east of south and more off the ocean that it is currently. A light southwest to south wind should increase around 8 to 10 knots for late this morning and this afternoon. The wind direction is forecast to back toward the south and southeast for this evening and tonight at speeds generally less than 10 knots. OUTLOOK.. Saturday...There is the potential for MVFR/IFR at times with showers and potential thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Winds out of the south on Saturday could gust up to around 25 knots. Saturday night and Sunday...Becoming VFR Saturday night with gusty west-northwest winds anticipated into Sunday, 25 to 30 knots at times. Sunday night thru Tuesday...Predominantly VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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A southerly flow will continue on the coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey for today and tonight. Sustained wind speeds should remain less than 15 knots with no gusts in excess of 20 knots. Wave heights on our ocean waters should be around 3 to 4 feet. Waves on Delaware Bay will likely be 1 to 3 feet. Mild air will continue to advect over the chilly water. Dew point readings will increase further above the water temperatures resulting in the development of fog this afternoon. The fog should become even more widespread for this evening and overnight. OUTLOOK... SCA conditions are forecast Friday night thru Monday, with period of gales possible on Sunday. Sub-SCA conditions are forecast Tuesday.
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&& .CLIMATE... **Many records yesterday contribute to a record warm Feb and a top 10 warmest winter in the period of record for Mount Holly Forecast Area** Records were set yesterday 2/23/17, at GED 75, MPO 63, RDG 73, ABE 72 and records were equaled at ACY 72, ILG 73 Moving forward, here are high temperature records for Friday and Saturday. Location Friday 2/24 Saturday 2/25 ACY 75-1985 77-1930 PHL 74-1985 79-1930 ILG 78-1985 78-1930 ABE 76-1985 74-1930 TTN 74-1985 76-1930 GED 72-1961 76-1975 RDG 77-1985 77-1930 MPO 60-1984 70-1930 The following are the monthly and seasonal expectations. It is virtually certain that these values will be at or below reality and that our forecast area is experiencing a record warm February and a top 10 warmest winter. Records date back to the late 19th century. Details below. February: PHL 43.9 #1 Normal 35.7 Record 42.2-1925 POR 1874 ABE 38.9 #1 Normal 30.7 Record 38.6-1998 POR 1922 ACY 42.9 #1 Normal 35.3 Record 41.6-1890 POR 1874 ILG 43.1 #1 Normal 35.1 Record 42.3-1903 POR 1895 Note for ABE: There is a pretty good chance ABE will end up warmer and possibly very close to their monthly temp record. Winter (DJF) PHL 40.3 #7 and solid. It wont slip. ABE 35.8 #5 and solid. It wont slip. ACY 39.8 #9 and may rise ILG 39.4 #5 tie Past two years of monthly average temperatures through February 2017, a summary of above normal months listed below: For ABE: 23 consecutive months of above normal temps! FOR PHL: 22 of the past 23 months have been above normal. For ACY: 19 of the past 23 months have been above normal. For ILG: 17 of the past 23 months have been above normal. (Jan Feb March 2015 was the last time we had significant and persistent below normal monthly temps.) Snow: Atlantic City should end up tied for 5th least snowiest February on record 0.3" && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Franck Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Franck Aviation...Franck/Iovino Marine...Franck/Iovino Climate...Drag

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