Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190742 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 342 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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An area of low pressure will track to our south and east today and strengthen as it moves offshore away from the region. High pressure will then build into the area into Friday. Another low pressure system is forecast to move to our south and east on Saturday before departing the region on Sunday. Unsettled weather may remain through the first part of next week with an upper low in the vicinity.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A cloud deck with bases generally in the 6000 to 8000 foot range remained over our forecast area early this morning along with isolated light rain showers. Some mid level drying should work its way in from the west this morning causing the cloud deck to begin breaking and the light rain showers to dissipate. A mid level low located over the eastern tip of Ontario early this morning should drift eastward and across northern New England this afternoon. The feature is expected to pull a short wave trough over our region today. We are anticipating a fair amount of cumulus development for this afternoon in response. Also, there may be enough instability to result in isolated light rain showers at that time, mainly across our northern and central counties. The wind direction should back from the north and northwest to the west and southwest at most locations today with speeds remaining less than 10 mph. The flow is not expected to be strong enough to prevent the sea breeze front from making some progress inland this afternoon. We have leaned toward the high end of the forecast guidance for today`s maximum temperatures based on the recent model trends and on the idea that we should receive a fair amount of sunshine even with some clouds overhead.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure is expected to continue building toward our region from the Great Lakes tonight. Any daytime cumulus is forecast to dissipate this evening with a mostly clear sky anticipated for the overnight period. The wind is expected to be light and variable allowing temperatures to drop into the middle 40s to lower 50s range in much of our forecast area.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The extendd fcst starts out quiet, with Fri potentially being one of the nicest days we have had in a while. High pres will be in firm control. Temps will be in the upper 70s and sw wind will be light. Unfortunately, it goes south from there! An area of low pres nr the Glfmex will move newd to nr the NC/VA brdr by erly Sat. From there it will continue its newd trek off the cst by Sat night. Rain will develop Sat mrng over srn sections and overspread the area durg the day. Rain cud be hvy at time Sat aftn and eve before tapering off Sat night. There is still some uncertainty wrt the track of the low. However, it appears the best rain chcs and best likelihood for hvy rain would be over srn and ern areas. The GFS continues to end the rain sooner the the ECMWF. However, ECMWF soln has some support from the NAM/WRF and have trended the fcst that way. Beyond Sat, there is lower than average confidence. An upr low/trof will be meandering over the region. There will likely be a break in the precip erly Sun before some shwrs move in later Sun. Then, after a drying trend in the mdls 24 hours ago, there is now a wetter trend for Mon and Tue. None of the days look to be a washout, just some showers. However, confidence is lower than average. With an upper low in place, some sct shwrs are to be expected due to the instability around, but the mdls just tend to overdo things in these situations. For now, will just keep low pops to avoid flip flopping and see if there is better mdl agreement with time. It does appear that by Wed, conds could improve despite what may or may not happen on Mon/Tue.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The cloud deck over our region early this morning with bases mainly in the 6000 to 8000 foot range should begin to break during the morning hours. Scattered to broken cumulus is anticipated for this afternoon with bases mainly in the 5000 to 6000 foot range. The sky is anticipated to clear for tonight. Scattered light rain showers early this morning are forecast to dissipate around or shortly after daybreak. Another round of isolated light rain showers is possible in the afternoon but the potential of their affecting any particular TAF sites is quite low. Regardless, they should have little impact on ceiling and visibility values. The wind is forecast to back from the north and northwest to the west and southwest today at speeds less than 10 knots. With little resistance, the sea breeze front is expected to reach KACY during the early afternoon. The wind is anticipated to become light and variable for tonight at our TAF sites. OUTLOOK... Fri through Fri night...VFR conds under high pres. High confidence Sat and Sat night...MVFR/IFR conditions. An area of low pres will move twd the area from the sern CONUS. It will reach the NC/VA brdr area then continue to track newd offshore. ra will develop durg the mrng hours from sw to ne. The best chcs for ra and heaviest ra are in srn and ern portions of the area. Ra should be tapering off by daybreak Sun. Moderate confidence. Sun and Mon...VFR/MVFR conditions. Possibly a break for a period early Sun, then potential for showers thereafter through the remainder of the forecast period. Low confidence.
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&& .MARINE...
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Low pressure well off the Middle Atlantic coast early this morning will continue to move farther out to sea. High pressure will build toward our region from the Great Lakes region. The departing low should keep the wind over our waters mainly from the northeast this morning. However, a surface trough developing to the lee of the mountains should cause the wind direction to veer toward the south for this afternoon on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware. The trough is forecast to move eastward and across our marine area tonight and the wind direction should change to the west and northwest at that time. Wind speeds are expected to remain below 15 knots for today and tonight with wave heights on our ocean waters ranging from 2 to 3 feet and waves on Delaware Bay being 2 feet or less. OUTLOOK... Fri...No marine headlines are anticipated, with high pres over the area. Sat thru Sun...Low pres over the sern CONUS will move newd to near the NC/VA brdr then off the cst and then continue out to sea. This newd track will cause an increase in wind and subsequent increase in seas on sat into erly sun. SCA flags are anticipated before wind and seas drop below sca criteria later Sun. Mon...Conds remain unsettled due to an upper low nearby, however no marine headlines are anticipated attm.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Nierenberg Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Nierenberg Aviation...Iovino/Nierenberg Marine...Iovino/Nierenberg

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