Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 230807 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 407 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A low pressure system will pass to the south and east of the area tonight, followed by weak high pressure for Wednesday. Another system develops over the Ohio Valley affecting the area late Wednesday through early Friday. Weak high pressure returns for Saturday with yet another low pressure forecast to affect the region for Sunday or Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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A low is expected to slide northeast along the now stationary front which is stalled well off shore. Models have trended later and further southeast with the track of this low. As a result, adjusted PoPs down through the morning hours, and along and west of the I95 corridor. As mentioned by the previous shift, it doesn`t look like there will be enough instability to support thunderstorms. Thus, expect only showers through the day today. As for temperatures, there may be a slight warming trend as compared to yesterday, but thanks to onshore flow, and increasing cloud cover late in the day, expect to remain slightly below normal.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
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Low will continue to slide northeast, with lingering showers possible, especially through the evening hours. A mid level short wave ridge is expected to build over the ridge beginning late tonight though. The associated subsidence should help to bring a quick end to the precipitation after midnight.
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&& .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Wednesday...the coastal low remains to the south and east of our area and pushes to the northeast fairly quickly. We dry out through Wednesday and rain looks to hold off for much of the day as weak high pressure cross the area. Wednesday night and Thursday...Low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move northeast on Thursday. Another low forms along the cold frontal boundary as it nears our area, and will cross our area later Thursday. Rain will start to overspread the region late Wednesday night and continue through much of Thursday. Marginal instability is noted and we continue to mention the chance for convection across the area. With PWAT`s once again rising up around 1.5-1.7 inches, we have the potential for moderate to heavy rain. With the wet period we have had of late, we will need to continue to monitor any heavy rain threat. Friday...Some showers possible Friday, mainly early and across the northern half of our forecast area. Overall, it should start to clear out across our area. Although, a slight cool down can be expected in the westerly flow. Saturday...High pressure will build in for Saturday and it should be a great start to the holiday weekend. A shortwave moves through the mid levels and across our area Saturday afternoon/evening. This may spark off a few light showers, mainly across the northern areas. Sunday and Monday...The rest of the holiday weekend looks unsettled as another low pressure system develops and heads towards the Mid- Atlantic. A chance for some showers and/or thunderstorms will be possible. A cooler day on Sunday with highs only into the low to mid- 70s but warming is expected for Monday, with highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Some low clouds continue to linger across the Coastal Plains and shallow ground fog has developed at some of the TAF sites in the wake of the cold front earlier. Expect this to continue at times through sunrise. After 12Z, should see several hours at least of VFR conditions across the region. After 18Z, could see low clouds and showers move in from the south. At this time, KILG, KMIV, and KACY are at the highest risk to see conditions drop below VFR (though it is also possible at KPHL, KTTN, and KPNE). Winds will be gradually shifting through the day from northerly to easterly, before shifting back to northeasterly tonight, but wind speeds are expected to generally remain at or below 10 kt. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR conditions expected early. MVFR/IFR conditions early, mainly at KMIV/KACY. Easterly winds around 10 knots or less. Wednesday night and Thursday...Deteriorating conditions as rain moves into the area. VFR conditions with periods of MVFR/IFR in showers/thunderstorms. Easterly winds around 10 to 15 knots becoming south to southeast around 10 knots or less late. Friday...Improving conditions with a return to VFR expected. Showers possible early. West winds around 10 to 15 knots. Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. West to southwest winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria for almost all of the area waters today and tonight. The one exception is the Delaware coastal waters where seas could build to near 5 feet by tonight, and wind gusts above 20 kt are expected. At this time though, do not have enough confidence to issue an SCA. Outlook... Wednesday...Small Craft Conditions may occur early in the day along the southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts due to hazardous seas. Thursday and Friday...Seas are expected to build in the prolonged easterly flow. Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Improving conditions on the waters through Friday as seas start to subside and winds diminish. Saturday...Both winds and waves are expected to stay below SCA criteria.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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After rain amounts near 3 inches in some places across south Jersey, levels for many creek and rivers in the Coastal Plains continue to rise. At this time, all remain below bankfull and flood stages, but we continue to monitor this area. Models have trended further southeast and later with heavy rain today. Thus, though these areas will likely see additional rain late today, we are expecting generally light rain amounts (near or below one quarter inch). A wet pattern looks to continue for much of the week. The next period of heavy rain could come as early as Wednesday night into Thursday.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Astronomical tides are running higher than normal this time of year. With the new moon taking place on Thursday, combined with a possible prolonged easterly flow, we may see some of our coastal sites exceed minor tidal flooding levels during the Wednesday and Thursday evening tide cycles. There is also a small chance that we could reach moderate levels in a few spots.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Johnson Short Term...Johnson Long Term...Meola Aviation...Johnson/Meola Marine...Johnson/Meola Hydrology... Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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