Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KPHI 011344 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 944 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A BETTER DEFINED LOW WILL PASS OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN OUR REGION. THE RESULTING OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN THE RAIN MAY BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER REMAIN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S IN OUR REGION. READINGS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S IN THE FAR NORTH. THE MARINE LAYER MAY ERODE ENOUGH IN OUR FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ALLOW THE WIND DIRECTION TO BECOME SOUTHERLY THERE WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE 60S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CONTINUE AND THEN START TO LIGHTEN UP AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW MAKES IT WAY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. SOUNDINGS SHOW A LARGE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS MAY INDICATE A LONGER PERIOD OF DRIZZLE AND/OR FOG ACROSS THE REGION AS THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REALLY FALL OFF TO MUCH FROM THE DAYTIME HIGHS AS WE KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE REST OF THE AREA GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY 12 HOUR PERIODS WHEN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY QPF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. PLENTY OF SLGT CHC/CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW LIKELY POPS FOCUSED ON THE TIMES OF MORE CERTAINTY. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST THIS WEEK. A UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY CLOSES OFF ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND THIS UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND CAUSES WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS AND CROSSES THE SOUTHERN ARE TUESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH HI CHC RANGE POPS MON AND LOW LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE DELMARVA MONDAY WHEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR. WEDNESDAY...THE ONE DAY WITH ONLY SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. THU THRU SAT...HEIGHTS LOWER ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF OVER THE AREA AND MOVES VERY SLOWLY. SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND MEANDERS UNDER THE UPPER LOW. PROLONGED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL. RATHER LOW CONFID FCST WITH THE DIFFERENT OPERATIONAL MODELS OFFERING VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF LOWS AND HIGHER QPF AMTS. MOSTLY CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THESE PERIODS ATTM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TODAY IN RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT THE POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS THE RAIN LETS UP THIS EVENING, AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL REMAIN AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IFR AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT. WINDS OVERALL WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... MONDAY THRU TUE NIGHT...SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES. WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WED NIGHT THRU THU...MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A QUIET PERIOD ON THE AREA WATERS TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES IT WAY TOWARDS THE AREA. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY BUILD AGAIN TONIGHT AND EXCEED 5 FEET BETWEEN 03-06Z. WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS STARTING AT 03Z TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUTLOOK... MONDAY...THE LAST OF THE SCA FOR SEAS WILL BE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BY EVENING. MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SCT SHOWERS THRU MUCH OF THE TIME. LOW END SCA SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN NJ WATERS WED NIGHT AND THU.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...O`HARA NEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...MEOLA LONG TERM...O`HARA AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.